2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[esk8mw]

As has been explained many times before, the battery CANNOT have anything to do with the trailer because of how logistics systems actually work. The tractor doesn't necessarily stay with the same trailer.

I say nothing of whether or not swapping will be involved, but it definitely won't have anything to do with the trailer.

Personally, I think swapping won't be involved. Its unnecessary and cumbersome and needlessly increases complexity from a first-principles physics standpoint.

If we are sticking with first principles here...why are you assuming that the Tesla tractor must be designed to accommodate all trailers simply because that's the way things are currently done in ICE logistics?

Regardless of whether my off the wall ramblings are feasible, I will say that I'm assuming Tesla Semi will have an optimized trailer and the Tesla tractor might not even be compatible with non-Tesla trailers. Tesla generally prefers vertical integration and tailored solutions optimizing electric car advantages/constraints rather than trying to design around old ICE-age thinking, even if the final design is limiting with respect to use cases - and I don't expect anything different on the Tesla Semi front.

Would this limit Tesla's use of the semi in the logistics industry? Sure, but if it's an overall better/cheaper solution it will be in wide use soon enough and production constrained as always for the foreseeable future. Tesla doesn't have to dominate every aspect of the logistics industry, it just has to dominate a particular aspect of logistics in order to be wildly successful.

 

[MartinAustin]

GM to Address Bolt Cars' Battery Defect Using Onstar System
DOW JONES & COMPANY, INC. 11:22 AM ET 2017-08-25

Symbol Last Price Change
GM 35.74

+0.22 (+0.62%)
QUOTES AS OF 12:22:51 PM ET 08-25-2017
General Motors Co. (GM) is taking an unconventional approach to repairing battery failures in a portion of its new Chevrolet Bolt electric cars: It is using the Onstar telematics service to remotely identify the problem and notify only owners who are potentially affected.

The Bolt is advertised as getting 238 miles of driving range on a single charge. In certain vehicles, the information system indicated far more juice remaining in the battery than it actually had, resulting in unexpected power loss.

Chris Bonelli, a General Motors(GM) spokesman, said most Chevy Bolt owners allow GM to perform remote diagnostic tests through the company's OnStar system, making it easier for the auto maker to locate and contact customers who have a defective vehicle and need a battery repair or replacement.

 

[vgrinshpun]

From the Fidelity news feed (note that GM can *notify* owner of a problem via Onstar, but can't fix this via an OTA...)

GM to Address Bolt Cars' Battery Defect Using Onstar System

General Motors Co. (GM) is taking an unconventional approach to repairing battery failures in a portion of its new Chevrolet Bolt electric cars: It is using the Onstar telematics service to remotely identify the problem and notify only owners who are potentially affected.

The Bolt is advertised as getting 238 miles of driving range on a single charge. In certain vehicles, the information system indicated far more juice remaining in the battery than it actually had, resulting in unexpected power loss.

Chris Bonelli, a General Motors(GM) spokesman, said most Chevy Bolt owners allow GM to perform remote diagnostic tests through the company's OnStar system, making it easier for the auto maker to locate and contact customers who have a defective vehicle and need a battery repair or replacement.

GM is banking on the $37,500 Bolt to help it catch up to Tesla Motors Inc. in the small but growing U.S. electric- vehicle market. Mr. Bonelli said more than 10,000 Bolts have been sold since the car went on sale in January. Less than 1% of buyers have experienced an unexpected loss of power while operating, he said.

At this early stage, any problems with the Bolt, even minor ones, could be seen as a setback because of both Tesla's sizable lead in sales of pure electric vehicles and wide skepticism about the range and costs associated with electric cars in general.

Repairs of manufacturing glitches typically are conducted via customer service notifications or full recalls, which can require extensive communication campaigns. Tesla has been credited with changing that model by using remote wireless updates to fix certain problems or perform upgrades remotely.

GM has been using OnStar for decades as a subscription-based service for its owners and has added diagnostic tools to the program over the years. Bolt customers who opted out of the OnStar diagnostic service won't be notified of potential problems, the spokesman said. The affected Bolt vehicles were likely built early in the production-launch process.

 

[AlMc]

I think that the most telling thing is that the AP criticism comes from a small amd very vocal group, who endlessly reiterate poorly thought out arguments. This has become simply noise, and just like on my boat radio, I use 'squelch' to control it.

AP criticism on this forum, in general , is off base and excessive, IMO. So your point is well taken by some of the posters that have never driven a vehicle equipped with AP1/AP2.

It has been debated before if naming the system 'auto pilot' was a good idea or 'driver assist' until FSD is available would have been a better choice. This, IMO, does cloud the issue/discussion.

Now, AP 2.0 was suppose to be at a level of AP 1.0 over 8 months ago according to EM.

Define level: Does it now do all the things AP 1 does: summons, self park, lane keep, auto brake? Yes.

Does it do it as well? Not lane keep or false breaking at highway speeds.

IMO, it will get there and certainly will eventually be better than AP 1. It is not there yet.

 

[EinSV]

In full agreement with @jbcarioca's suggestion to keep the Market Action thread focused on Market Action, so moving this to the General thread.

<snip> That it originally took 10 years for MobilEye to get to AP1 <snip>

MobilEye did not create AP1 -- Tesla did by using MobilEye's system to achieve capabilities that no one else including MobilEye could. In fact, I think it is fair to assume that not only could MobilEye not create AP1 on its own, but did not even think it possible at the time given their safety objections to AP1, which turned out to be misguided.

MobilEye's system obviously brought important capability to the table, but to give them the credit for AP1 is incorrect IMO.

I think the failure to acknowledge Tesla's achievement with AP1, and rapid duplication of MobilEye's capabilities, is leading many to underestimate Tesla's ability to get to Level 4 and eventually Level 5.

 

[Papafox]

do you take your hands off the wheel... turn your chair and do work on your laptop?... THAT'S WHAT PILOTS DO... my argument is NOT that AP2 sucks... my argument is that it's NOT FSD... it's NOT CLOSE to FSD and that it's been touted as far more than it is by Elon... and I gave you an EXACT reference to this.

my argument is FSD today with Tesla is pure fiction... just as it was 2 years ago... either Elon is wildly inaccurate in predictions or he is playing you for this stock price to remain elevated... again:

EM: "we do want to set the expectation that it's much like the Autopilot in a plane ... we do want to set that expectation with consumers"

is AP2 like Autopilot in a plane Reciprocity?

myusername, how much time do you have in cockpits flying airliners or planes with sophisticated autopilots? I have 22 years. Here's the deal. In cruise flight, there's lots of soft air surrounding your plane and the autopilot doesn't have to be watched so carefully. It still needs to be watched, though, with some level of oversight.

On low instrument approaches (Category II and III), you typically have one crew member looking out the windshield to pick up the runway and the other pilot is watching the autopilot's performance with as much intensity as a mongoose watching a cobra. The pilot monitoring the autopilot is primed to take over in a single second if something goes wrong, and sometimes something does indeed go wrong.

My point is that "autopilot" is a valid name for Tesla's driving solutions at the moment because the autopilot in a Tesla and the autopilot in an airplane both need to be monitored and both are extremely good at reducing the workload, doing some things better than a human and making the trip safer and less fatiguing for the operator. When Tesla's driving solution reaches full autonomy a name other than "autopilot" might be more appropriate, but for now it fits.

I just completed a road trip of several weeks in the Black Hills of South Dakota, to and in the Rockies, and to and in the Sierras. I had lots of opportunities to see my Autopilot 1.0 hardware maneuver on winding mountain roads and it did so amazingly well. I can't speak of Autopilot 2.0 hardware because I've never driven a car with it, but 1.0 has reached the point of being so useful and so likely to improve the safety of my driving that I use it 95% of the time I'm on the highway. The TACC is marvelous and it recognizes speed changes in the car ahead of me sooner than I do. I have even had a situation where the TACC recognized the car ahead of the car in front of me was braking quickly and because it braked my Tesla it prevented me from getting close to the car in front of me when that person did a panic stop upon noticing what was happening in front of him.

As far as phantom braking, one way of dealing with the very occasional instance is to keep your foot on the accelerator pedal (where it should be) and if you feel rapid deceleration when it is inappropriate, you can give a little accelerator pedal and reduce the deceleration if the car behind you is getting too close.

I can't speak of when Autopilot 2.5 hardware will go fully autonomous, but I can say that Autopilot 1.0 hardware cars have achieved the promise of becoming very capable at reducing the workload of driving and making the trip safer. For this reason, I advise friends who are considering a CPO Tesla S to only buy one that has autopilot hardware on board. It's that critical an ingredient for enjoying the full Tesla experience.

I will agree with you that Elon has been unreasonably optimistic on his timetable for the introduction of full autonomy. That's an entirely different kettle of fish. Still, I'm inclined to believe that a Model S or Model X may indeed make it from Los Angeles to New York later this year, driving on its own with a human sitting in the seat. Highway driving is more doable for full autonomy than city driving. The trip cannot take place in summer, though, because of road construction and the challenges it offers. Road construction will be one of the big challenges of full autonomy. Still, I bet Tesla will pull off the drive before the end of this year. Improved mapping of the highway to be used will be one of the ingredients that makes the trip successful.

 

[MitchJi]

I see a lot of posts about how the autopilot team is in complete disarray and Elon doesn't act on it.

Elon is fully focused on production Model 3 scaling and I'm sure he'll sleep many nights at the factory floor to make sure they hit 5k/week in December. This is production hell.

It becomes clear they redesigned AP (HW 2.5) for Model 3 as well as building up a real navigation tool that should exceed all current navigation tools. Maps in the past have never been created with the purpose of FSD. It didn't really matter when a GPS showed 40mph but the street signs said 65mph; now we've got phantom braking.. Every little detail a navigation got wrong is now a significant problem.

The focus now is and should be on getting Model 3's out on the streets; for the company and for FSD.

Those will collect massive amounts of data and based on that, they will feed the FSD monster.

By now, they have maybe 70k Model S/X's with AP2 on the streets which is still peanuts IMO and the first months the data collected was almost inexistant.

In little more than a year from now, that number on the streets will quintuple. (current 70k + 100k X/S + 180k model 3's). That's when the real FSD monster will stand up.


Reliable data first. That's also why Tesla will maintain their advantage on FSD vs competitors. Nobody will come close to gathering data from 400k cars next year. Nobody.

Begin 2018, Elon will switch his focus to FSD & AI within Tesla and I'm sure 2018 will surprise many.

First things first, step by step. As it should.

Strongly disagree with the four statements in bold. Elon isn't responsible for FSD coding nor is he going to be sleeping on the floor with the FSD software team.

I don't believe that the M3 ramp will have a significant impact on FSD progress. Zero evidence (besides being highly unlikely) that the hardware 2.5 is in any way specific to the M3, and no reason to think that has had any impact on their schedule. Also no evidencr that lack of data is responsible for the slower than expected rollout.

Everything else in your post I generally agree with.

 

[MitchJi]

Does anyone have any educated and/or informed guesses on the annual battery production capacity of the subsequent Gigafactories?

This is an extremely important piece of information for valuation purposes.

Because they are planning to use the Gigafactories to produce a sufficient quantity of cells for their local production plans will have a huge impact on the size . In North America I don't believe that the second Gigafactory will be required to support the M3 and semi's. But the MY production line should have a substantially higher rate of production as compared to the M3.

For Gigafactories in China and Europe the Gigafactories should be large enough cell production to cover the M3, the MY, the semi's plus local TE. China will probably support larger quantities of everything than Europe.

Then there's the possibility of using goodenaugh cells (about 30% IMO) which would at least double the output of the current Gigafactory.

 

[MitchJi]

Technically, I agree. It's a large problem, so it is not one brilliant kid that is going to find the breakthrough 'on his own' (Hotz...) So what we are left is a large pool of mainly software engineers and computer scientists all working on this problem and creating a collective knowledge. With the mutual poaching and personal changes going in in best Silicon Valley tradition, there will be multiple parties arriving at fairly comparable solutions in fairly similar timeframes. But what's comes next is where Tesla still has a critical lead : it has a CEO that is willing to take on risk and put something in the hands of customers where other manufacturers will prefer to wait for more thorough validation. So it may be that most solutions arrive technically at the same time while Tesla will still deliver it way ahead to the market.

Plus the large number of cars that are ready for the software and the ability to use ota to introduce the software and to add improvements and bug fixes. Miles ahead of everyone else!

It's also worth mentioning their advantage in the volume of data that they are collecting.

 

[MitchJi]

From the Fidelity news feed (note that GM can *notify* owner of a problem via Onstar, but can't fix this via an OTA...)

GM to Address Bolt Cars' Battery Defect Using Onstar System

A more accurate headline would have been BMS Defect.

GM is banking on the $37,500 Bolt to help it catch up to Tesla Motors Inc. in the small but growing U.S. electric- vehicle market. Mr. Bonelli said more than 10,000 Bolts have been sold since the car went on sale in January. Less than 1% of buyers have experienced an unexpected loss of power while operating, he said.
I hope that isn't an accurate description of GM's expectations because that's beyond delusional, definitely batshit crazy!

 

[RobStark]

Weekend OT.

 

[Waiting4M3]

 

[vgrinshpun]

A more accurate headline would have been BMS Defect.

GM is banking on the $37,500 Bolt to help it catch up to Tesla Motors Inc. in the small but growing U.S. electric- vehicle market. Mr. Bonelli said more than 10,000 Bolts have been sold since the car went on sale in January. Less than 1% of buyers have experienced an unexpected loss of power while operating, he said.
I hope that isn't an accurate description of GM's expectations because that's beyond delusional, definitely batshit crazy!

Yes, and BMS defect is pretty serious business, as it relates to driveability and health of the battery.

Looks like in their rush to beat Tesla to the market GM pushed half-baked product out into the wild.

 

[kbM3]

If reservation level is an indication of demand, this may mean 2m annual year demand for Model Y since Model 3 may reach 700k annual demand per Elon. Would you agree with this as well?

I disagree with this. An increased reservation level in the future would be expected on a new vehicle with exactly the same desirability of the 3, because of greater awareness of Tesla and people have now realized they need to "get in line" earlier.

 

[JRP3]

Here's what I want to see with Tesla Semi:

A modular, swappable battery system. Basically, just use the blank space beneath the trailer for battery packs. You could side-load the batteries, like putting a drawer into a cabinet. Each one gets you ~100 miles of range, add up to 10 or whatever depending on length of haul/size of load.

The batteries could be stored in vertical stacks at superchargers, service centers or other dedicated stations along major highways. I'm sure a robotic solution could be devised to side load these batteries into the trailer. Remove the old, plug in the new and be on your way. Depleted batteries go back into the stack and are charged, waiting for the next semi to arrive.

Same problems with this concept as with pack swapping in cars. Increasing the numbers of the most expensive components, batteries, is no way to be cost competitive, nor is building out and stocking the needed swap stations. An excessively high number of extra packs would be required at each station to cover the greatest possible station load otherwise there is no quick swap pack available. It's not impossible but it's far from ideal.

 

[Buddyroe]

Thank you for this detailed post. I was about to rate it Informative, but then realized that most of the ratings you've received since 2014 is "disagree." I understand that ratings are not everything, and they can be manipulated and all, but yours is very decisive. I'd be interested in reading your thoughts on this, if you'd like to share.

Well, I'm a huge Tesla fan who sometimes presents facts that people either can't handle or don't like. Most people who hit "disagree" never post a rebuttal, they just don't like my post. But, if you look back at my posts, for example, the ones about the Falcon Wing Doors on the X starting from the day the X was revealed, you will see that I posted nothing but facts. In fact, I made a post just like the one I did for AP2 where I simply quoted several owners in a thread in the Model X forum complaining about the FWDs or showed pictures of the damage they were doing to people's houses. A ton of people hit disagree - I'm still not sure what they disagreed with - me or the people I was quoting. But, just like the post above, I always provide links to what I quote.

I'm a huge Tesla fan and a shareholder since March 2013. I WILL own a Tesla one day (soon I hope). Does that mean I can't be critical of Tesla and Elon Musk when I think they've made a bad decision? In my world it doesn't.

Another thing about me is that when I invest in a company, I don't just look at charts or financial statements, I like to get the sentiment of the users/owners. That's what lead me to invest in Tesla to begin with - amazing technology and reports of incredible customer service. Over the last 18 to 24 months, I've seen that customer service slip terribly and I've often posted that here with links to the owners complaints. I thoroughly believe that the same way the super customer service gave Tesla a great reputation, the poor customer service over the last 18 or so months will eventually tarnish that reputation and possibly turn it in another direction completely. Regaining it will be difficult, if not impossible. Consider the reputation of the traditional American car manufacturers compared to the Japanese ones - the cars might or might not be close to the Japanese in quality now, but it doesn't matter because the reputation of American car builders is crap (traditional ones). You just can't turn that around easily (if at all). Best if you have a good reputation to NEVER lose it. NEVER!!

In the beginning through about the end of 2014, there was something magical about Tesla. They were truly different. But, the way I've seen owners treated over the last couple of years, I just don't know if it's true any more or not. I sure hope so.

I still can't believe you guys are so heavily invested in a company and never venture over to the Model S and Model X forums to get a feel for owners' sentiments. I find that unbelievable. I also talk to a ton of people selling their S since I am looking for one. And just last week, I had a guy who had just had his 3rd child tell me he loves his S, but he needs more room so they are moving to an SUV - but he will NOT even consider the X because of the doors. He gave great details about his experience when he had an X loaner for a couple of days. I will gladly send you screenshots of our conversation if you would like to see it. Just PM me your email or phone #.

 

[Buddyroe]

View attachment 243694

I am a subscriber to the WSJ only for the purpose of responding to the stupidity they publish there. There's about 4 or 5 of us Tesla folk on the comment section trying to educate the morons who post the most ignorant things you have EVER read in your life. Talk about an exercise in futility. But for some reason, I can't stand it. I have to tell them after EVERY Tesla article that it was actually Bush that created the bill that gave Tesla the federal loan (and Ford as I love to point out over there), as well as the tax credits for EVs. But for every one I teach, there are 100 more waiting to take their place as the ignorant poster. My work will NEVER end!!

EDIT: And of course, there's always the typical comments about the fires, the lack of charging stations, better have a long extension cord, EVs simply aren't a viable means of transportation, Elon is a fraud, Elon sucks the govt tit, barnum and bailey, etc, etc, etc

 

[The Blue Owl]

I am a subscriber to the WSJ only for the purpose of responding to the stupidity they publish there. There's about 4 or 5 of us Tesla folk on the comment section trying to educate the morons who post the most ignorant things you have EVER read in your life. Talk about an exercise in futility. But for some reason, I can't stand it. I have to tell them after EVERY Tesla article that it was actually Bush that created the bill that gave Tesla the federal loan (and Ford as I love to point out over there), as well as the tax credits for EVs. But for every one I teach, there are 100 more waiting to take their place as the ignorant poster. My work will NEVER end!!

EDIT: And of course, there's always the typical comments about the fires, the lack of charging stations, better have a long extension cord, EVs simply aren't a viable means of transportation, Elon is a fraud, Elon sucks the govt tit, barnum and bailey, etc, etc, etc

I agree, the intellectual level in the comments section is atrocious. Alas, it seems to be more the rule than the exception. For instance, the comments under Financial Times articles, on Tesla especially, aren't much better. I'm sure a lot of the garbage is actually pushed by professional outfits.

 

[Waiting4M3]

I am a subscriber to the WSJ only for the purpose of responding to the stupidity they publish there. There's about 4 or 5 of us Tesla folk on the comment section trying to educate the morons who post the most ignorant things you have EVER read in your life. Talk about an exercise in futility. But for some reason, I can't stand it. I have to tell them after EVERY Tesla article that it was actually Bush that created the bill that gave Tesla the federal loan (and Ford as I love to point out over there), as well as the tax credits for EVs. But for every one I teach, there are 100 more waiting to take their place as the ignorant poster. My work will NEVER end!!

EDIT: And of course, there's always the typical comments about the fires, the lack of charging stations, better have a long extension cord, EVs simply aren't a viable means of transportation, Elon is a fraud, Elon sucks the govt tit, barnum and bailey, etc, etc, etc

You may have seen this before

As much as I hate the idiots spread misinformation on the internet, I think Tesla's products speak for themselves, Elon's near 11M Twitter followers doesn't hurt either. Don't lose any sleep over the FUD.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Well, I'm a huge Tesla fan who sometimes presents facts that people either can't handle or don't like. Most people who hit "disagree" never post a rebuttal, they just don't like my post. But, if you look back at my posts, for example, the ones about the Falcon Wing Doors on the X starting from the day the X was revealed, you will see that I posted nothing but facts. In fact, I made a post just like the one I did for AP2 where I simply quoted several owners in a thread in the Model X forum complaining about the FWDs or showed pictures of the damage they were doing to people's houses. A ton of people hit disagree - I'm still not sure what they disagreed with - me or the people I was quoting. But, just like the post above, I always provide links to what I quote.

I'm a huge Tesla fan and a shareholder since March 2013. I WILL own a Tesla one day (soon I hope). Does that mean I can't be critical of Tesla and Elon Musk when I think they've made a bad decision? In my world it doesn't.

Another thing about me is that when I invest in a company, I don't just look at charts or financial statements, I like to get the sentiment of the users/owners. That's what lead me to invest in Tesla to begin with - amazing technology and reports of incredible customer service. Over the last 18 to 24 months, I've seen that customer service slip terribly and I've often posted that here with links to the owners complaints. I thoroughly believe that the same way the super customer service gave Tesla a great reputation, the poor customer service over the last 18 or so months will eventually tarnish that reputation and possibly turn it in another direction completely. Regaining it will be difficult, if not impossible. Consider the reputation of the traditional American car manufacturers compared to the Japanese ones - the cars might or might not be close to the Japanese in quality now, but it doesn't matter because the reputation of American car builders is crap (traditional ones). You just can't turn that around easily (if at all). Best if you have a good reputation to NEVER lose it. NEVER!!

In the beginning through about the end of 2014, there was something magical about Tesla. They were truly different. But, the way I've seen owners treated over the last couple of years, I just don't know if it's true any more or not. I sure hope so.

I still can't believe you guys are so heavily invested in a company and never venture over to the Model S and Model X forums to get a feel for owners' sentiments. I find that unbelievable. I also talk to a ton of people selling their S since I am looking for one. And just last week, I had a guy who had just had his 3rd child tell me he loves his S, but he needs more room so they are moving to an SUV - but he will NOT even consider the X because of the doors. He gave great details about his experience when he had an X loaner for a couple of days. I will gladly send you screenshots of our conversation if you would like to see it. Just PM me your email or phone #.

Thank you for sharing all of this. I really appreciate it.

I understand your concerns around Model x and customer service. I do care about these things, but I track them in a different way than you do. I care more about collective response, for lack of a better way to put it, than individual feedback. I like hearing personal accounts but I don't really base my investment decisions on them. I don't base my investment decisions on my own experience of the products either.