2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[RiverCard]

Yes, but in these situations, how much power would the HVAC really be drawing when ambient temperatures are pretty close to the desired room temperatures? Humidity is obviously a different issue. But in the case of rain, the utility isn't going to be offline for 4 days is it?

Most Gulf Coast residents do not consider high 80s-low 90s F with relative humidity above 90% (the prevailing day-time conditions during nearly seven days of continuous rain) to be "pretty close to room temperature."

In flooded areas/neighborhoods, electrical distribution utilities routinely isolate circuits to minimize electrocution risks and damage to their infrastructure. Assuming minimal wind damage, the duration of the outages are a function of how long it takes the water to recede and safety checks to be completed.

Natural gas distribution is generally much less affected which (along with propane grills) is how many cook during electrical outages; Generac, Kohler, etc. sell a lot of whole-house NG generators after each named storm, but most residents still rely on gasoline-fired generators for powering lighting, fans, and refrigeration appliances.

Particularly after Rita and Ike, many commercial and service sites (gas stations, water & sewer districts, hospitals) now have dual fuel (NG & diesel) fired generators.

The various technologies for back-up power systems all have trade-offs, but it is mostly economics. If cell costs continue to decline, batteries will become an increasingly viable alternative, but politicians are going to play it safe and lean more towards the worst than the the most likely case.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Most Gulf Coast residents do not consider high 80s-low 90s F with relative humidity above 90% (the prevailing day-time conditions during nearly seven days of continuous rain) to be "pretty close to room temperature."

In flooded areas/neighborhoods, electrical distribution utilities routinely isolate circuits to minimize electrocution risks and damage to their infrastructure. Assuming minimal wind damage, the duration of the outages are a function of how long it takes the water to recede and safety checks to be completed.

Natural gas distribution is generally much less affected which (along with propane grills) is how many cook during electrical outages; Generac, Kohler, etc. sell a lot of whole-house NG generators after each named storm, but most residents still rely on gasoline-fired generators for powering lighting, fans, and refrigeration appliances.

Particularly after Rita and Ike, many commercial and service sites (gas stations, water & sewer districts, hospitals) now have dual fuel (NG & diesel) fired generators.

The various technologies for back-up power systems all have trade-offs, but it is mostly economics. If cell costs continue to decline, batteries will become an increasingly viable alternative, but politicians are going to play it safe and lean more towards the worst than the the most likely case.

TIL, rain does not bring cooler weather in the gulf states and that I'm afflicted with a west coast mindset. I stand corrected.

 

[Krugerrand]

I don't know what was going on in that Video, but I bet Tesla management can not wait to replace all their assembly line workers with robots!

That guy obviously interviews way better than (fill in the blank).

 

[schonelucht]

I find it hard to believe that you are willing to state as a ***fact*** that there will be "glut" of batteries from China. and that could somehow affect Tesla based on this report.

I don't think I ever stated any effect on Tesla? I just repeated the claim in that research report about the Chinese market. That's all. You and @RobStart can discount that report but I think it is more believable and researched than hand waved assertions here that 'it is total nonsense'.

So are you really trying to make a case that Chinese manufacturers will be able to close this huge gap in 2018??

I don't think I did. Neither did the report. In fact I specifically clarified their majority production is second generation and they are now starting to move over to third generation. Aggressively yes at a rate of in the order of 10 GWh/year, but with 100GWh capacity it's obviously not going to be complete by next year.

What I am saying is that Chinese battery technology is a decade behind and there is no way in the world they will close this gap next year. The fact that the push to be a/the market leader is being financed by Chinese government is perhaps the most ominous - by creating protectionist barriers for their EV and battery market, and pumping money in it at the same time, they are almost guaranteeing that their batteries will not be competitive. Aside from technical information which indisputably demonstrating how much behind they are, this is perhaps the most damning fact.

I don't think you understand very well how the Chinese market works. Yes, there are huge inefficiencies due to the heavy hand of the government. But the scale at which they move capital and resources (and battery production is all about that, it's not _that_ difficult to make a good lithium ion battery) makes up for it. That claimed 10 year gap will certainly not take 10 years to bridge.

Look, all I can do is point out research reports and since no one has given me any reason not take them seriously, I do take them seriously. If you have a research report that Chinese battery production is a decade behind, please link me. More researched opinions = happier @schonelucht

 

[Gerardf]

Look, all I can do is point out research reports and since no one has given me any reason not take them seriously, I do take them seriously. If you have a research report that Chinese battery production is a decade behind, please link me. More researched opinions = happier @schonelucht

The report you referred to is wrong about both the timing and the capacity of the GigaFactory... by a factor of three !
Hard to take such a report serious.
Of course that does not mean China is not on a path to strongly increase battery production capacity. In fact I agree that is what is happening.

I stay with my opinion that the global demand for BEV & energy storage batteries will far outgrow global production increase for many years to come. Any battery Tesla's Gigafactory 1, 3, 4 and 5 can produce is basically already sold.

 

[Gerardf]

Large companies commit to fully switch to EV's in the EV100 program.
In the Dutch press today I see a deadline mentioned of latest 2030 for the 100% (<3.5T) resp. 50% (3.5T-7T) switch to EV's.

Just for these multinationals, that will be 'a lot' of cars / batteries that must be produced the next decade.

Multinationals launch global program to speed up switch to electric vehicles

Transitioning vehicle use to EVs

1. EV integration in to directly controlled (owned / leased) fleets
   1. 100% of vehicles up to 3.5 tonnes to be EV
   2. 50% of vehicles between 3.5 tonnes and 7.5 tonnes to be EV

1. Requirement for EV in service contracts
   1. Daily rental
   2. Contracted taxi providers
   3. Car sharing

 

[anticitizen13.7]

I don't think I ever stated any effect on Tesla? I just repeated the claim in that research report about the Chinese market. That's all. You and @RobStart can discount that report but I think it is more believable and researched than hand waved assertions here that 'it is total nonsense'.

It's your conclusion, based on this article, that there will be a glut of batteries, that I disagree with.

Even if the article's prediction is 100% true in Chinese capacity being 120 GWh/year and 1.5M car batteries supplied in 2021, that's still not nearly enough to replace ICE.

 

[maxlength888]

Mad Money Cramer put a down payment on a Tesla for his daughter

 

[mrdoubleb]

This seems a bit odd, don`t you guys think?
Tesla Withdraws Model 3 From Competing For North American Car Of The Year Award

quote:
As for Tesla’s reason for withdrawing the Model 3 from NACOTY running, the Detroit News says the automaker stated that it’s

“…focused on scaling up production and could not have a car available for jury testing.”

Not even one single car could be spared? We’re not buying that excuse.

 

[SBenson]

This seems a bit odd, don`t you guys think?
Tesla Withdraws Model 3 From Competing For North American Car Of The Year Award

quote:
As for Tesla’s reason for withdrawing the Model 3 from NACOTY running, the Detroit News says the automaker stated that it’s

“…focused on scaling up production and could not have a car available for jury testing.”

Not even one single car could be spared? We’re not buying that excuse.

Anti-selling

No reason to hype up Model-3 more than it is. Let the Ss keep rolling.

 

[RiverCard]

rain does not bring cooler weather in the gulf states

Did not say that--late August daytime temps commonly mid to high 90s F.

 

[EnzoXYZ]

Anti-selling

No reason to hype up Model-3 more than it is. Let the Ss keep rolling.

I'm in the camp more demand for M3 the more demand/awareness for MS/X with the anticipated volume production in the next few years. I'm disappointed Tesla isn't supply a car for them to test. It's a cake walk to win car of the year if Bolt can win it.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Anti-selling

No reason to hype up Model-3 more than it is. Let the Ss keep rolling.

IDK... but anti-sell so much that they would be ok potentially giving up such a big title? Results wouldn't be made public for a while and by the time they are M3 should be ramping to 20k per month.

Some speculate quality is not there yet and they didn't want journalists around. But with deliveries about to begin to customers, they will lose control over reviews anyway, so neither makes much sense to me.

Anyway. Not a major concern, just odd.

 

[Starno]

As if by chance, it's only when the SP reach new ATHs that bearish target price are set..... I wonder why ....

 

[Gerardf]

This seems a bit odd, don`t you guys think?
Tesla Withdraws Model 3 From Competing For North American Car Of The Year Award

quote:
As for Tesla’s reason for withdrawing the Model 3 from NACOTY running, the Detroit News says the automaker stated that it’s
“…focused on scaling up production and could not have a car available for jury testing.”
Not even one single car could be spared? We’re not buying that excuse.

They want to make sure nobody sees the pre-prepared mountings for the retrofit HUD

(OK, I will run to find cover now)

 

[JRP3]

Impressive achievement by Proterra All-electric bus travels record 1,100 miles on a single charge

Looks to be a low speed run.

 

[neroden]

I think
(a) Tesla doesn't want an early-off-the-line model being juried;
(b) Tesla doesn't want to increase the reservation list for Model 3.

Next year, with high production and federal incentives starting to go away, "car of the year" will mean something. This year it can't help them.

 

[RubberToe]

IDK... but anti-sell so much that they would be ok potentially giving up such a big title? Results wouldn't be made public for a while and by the time they are M3 should be ramping to 20k per month.

Some speculate quality is not there yet and they didn't want journalists around. But with deliveries about to begin to customers, they will lose control over reviews anyway, so neither makes much sense to me.

Anyway. Not a major concern, just odd.

Anti-selling the Model 3 seems a reasonable guess. I'm still thinking there may be something we don't know about the Model 3 yet that Tesla is keeping secret. But as others have said, normal customers will be getting the cars "soon", well before judging results released. It is puzzling they would not provide a vehicle.

Longer range than EPA sticker, just software limited, is my guess. Testers would figure this out, right?

RT

 

[racer26]

Anti-selling the Model 3 seems a reasonable guess. I'm still thinking there may be something we don't know about the Model 3 yet that Tesla is keeping secret. But as others have said, normal customers will be getting the cars "soon", well before judging results released. It is puzzling they would not provide a vehicle.

Longer range than EPA sticker, just software limited, is my guess. Testers would figure this out, right?

RT

The evidence so far is showing that it is not software limited, but rather that the EPA numbers advertised (310mi on the LR) are simply sandbagged.

The EPA testing data that was published should have led to an EPA rating of 334mi, not 310mi if using the same drag compensation factor (70%) that the other automakers use (which accounts for the fact that the testing is done on a dyno where there is no wind resistance). Tesla S and X actually use 73%, representative of the fact that they are more aerodynamic than typical vehicles on the road. Model 3 is using 65% for this number to arrive at 310mi, but we know that if anything, Model 3 is more aerodynamic again than S/X, and so should probably use 73-75% for this factor.

This is simple math based on the published testing data by Tesla and other automakers. Doing the math the same way on each car, you can't arrive at the published numbers unless you use these factors, and these factors (which the automakers are permitted to select for themselves) selected for Model 3 don't make sense when contrasted with the physics reasons for why the factor is there at all and the real world CdA of the vehicles.

Its not clear yet why Tesla would choose to intentionally underestimate Model 3's actual range. My suspicion is that they don't want it to cannibalize S 100D sales until they've had a chance to migrate some of the new technology from the 3 back into the S/X, and so they're pretending the 3 is less good than it actually is in the meantime.

Also interesting, if you assume that SR's 220mi advertised range is similarly sandbagged with this 65% factor, using a 70% factor would make Model 3 SR have a 237mi range, curiously close to Bolt's.

 

[bart513]

MODERATOR DELETED POST:

This post is not allowed to stand. Not because it did not belong in this thread (which it did not), but because:

===> It had every hallmark of being a marketing ploy for a private investment.

Unallowable on many, many counts. A gentle warning to the poster, and a heads-up to any who read it before it was deleted.