Considering it wont go into effect until 2018 if at all, calling it a Tesla tax is acknowledging Tesla has no direct competition in these EV segments. I think that dichotomy will be lost on the bears who tout incoming direct competition.
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Considering it wont go into effect until 2018 if at all, calling it a Tesla tax is acknowledging Tesla has no direct competition in these EV segments. I think that dichotomy will be lost on the bears who tout incoming direct competition.
sub
Active Member
. I already understood everything in this post years ago but just realized it also answers my question. I initially had a counter response but the light came on before I finished. Thanks.
erthquake
Active Member
Off-topic, but I'm getting super giddy for this weekend. My family is going up north for my mother-in-law's 50th reunion at Stanford. I'm psyched that I'll have a very good chance of my first Model 3 sighting in person. I might sneak out and head over to Deer Creek headquarters to see if can see any in the parking lot. If I see anything interesting, like high VINs, I'll let you know.
SpaceX update
Successful launch of the reused rocket from previous recovery
Successful (sea) relanding of same first stage-
———this is the 18th consecutive successful relanding!
Successful 2nd stage firing for payload delivery
Edit: successful payload deployment
Execution-
This is SpaceX steak- first course
We need second course Tesla steak M3 production now!
Go team!
Successful launch of the reused rocket from previous recovery
Successful (sea) relanding of same first stage-
———this is the 18th consecutive successful relanding!
Successful 2nd stage firing for payload delivery
Edit: successful payload deployment
Execution-
This is SpaceX steak- first course
We need second course Tesla steak M3 production now!
Go team!
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Reciprocity
Active Member
Thinking about all the competition that is coming in the magical year of 2020. It should not be a forgone conclusion that just because a new EV has a Mercedes or Porsche badge that people will choose it over a Tesla. At the most basic level, these cars will be untested and all the questions people had about Tesla like battery degradation, cold and hot weather performance and of course range anxiety with no Supercharging network will need to be answered.
I think that if those vehicles do well it will be because they are taking market share from other ice vehicles or other newly released EVs. They will have to both earn the credibility Tesla has and increase production capacity and battery supply, but I'm all but certain those vehicles will actually hurt Mercedes and Porsche ICEv as well as other ICE brands that compete in the same segment.
I'm going to call this theory.. adding insult to injury. Build a Tesla killer to only have it canabolizing you're own sales and at a loss for at least the first 5 years. Mercedes is going to be selling 10k per year and each and everyone will lose money and it will be canabolizing customers who would have purchased a comparable but profitable ICE variation of the same vehicle.
The traditional auto is really in a bad spot. They are all but forced to spend billions to catch up only to canabolizing their own profits at a loss. I wonder if bears will call them a Ponzi cash burning inferno of fraud? Nah, they will be called visionary and for sure a Tesla killer.
One thing that will be interesting to see is how production hell will impact these new magical 2020 vehicles, because they will at the very least be almost entirely new platforms and very little overlap with existing vehicle platforms. Today a new e class Mercedes is not much different then the prior year and so on. They make incremental changes from year to year and rarely make overarching design changes.
Only time will tell, can't wait for that magical year.. oh 2020 where are you?
I think that if those vehicles do well it will be because they are taking market share from other ice vehicles or other newly released EVs. They will have to both earn the credibility Tesla has and increase production capacity and battery supply, but I'm all but certain those vehicles will actually hurt Mercedes and Porsche ICEv as well as other ICE brands that compete in the same segment.
I'm going to call this theory.. adding insult to injury. Build a Tesla killer to only have it canabolizing you're own sales and at a loss for at least the first 5 years. Mercedes is going to be selling 10k per year and each and everyone will lose money and it will be canabolizing customers who would have purchased a comparable but profitable ICE variation of the same vehicle.
The traditional auto is really in a bad spot. They are all but forced to spend billions to catch up only to canabolizing their own profits at a loss. I wonder if bears will call them a Ponzi cash burning inferno of fraud? Nah, they will be called visionary and for sure a Tesla killer.
One thing that will be interesting to see is how production hell will impact these new magical 2020 vehicles, because they will at the very least be almost entirely new platforms and very little overlap with existing vehicle platforms. Today a new e class Mercedes is not much different then the prior year and so on. They make incremental changes from year to year and rarely make overarching design changes.
Only time will tell, can't wait for that magical year.. oh 2020 where are you?
skitown
Member
I think this is totally correct. They aren't "Tesla killers", they're "Tesla joiners". There's a reason Elon is begging them to join the party. Sure there will be people interested in EVs cross-shopping them all and definitely some will choose a traditional brand over a Tesla. But if Porsche and/or Mercedes truly builds an EV that can fundamentally compete with a Tesla, then the car is going to get a ton of test drives at the dealerships by newbies, and the driving dynamics of said EV is going to blow their socks off. If these vehicles can't be made at a reasonable profit and volume; wow; talk about needing to anti-sell to avoid Osborning oneself.
Edit: 'Osborning' wasn't the correct term to use for what I described, but you get my drift.
Reciprocity
Active Member
Well they only count the ones sold in America haha. Have you filled taxes and gotten the tax credit? It requires your vin. I'm sure they match that up with what Tesla reports to them. Again, not complicated. On summer Tate in the future Tesla will report the 200,000th delivery and that will start the clock. The remainder of that quarter and the next week be there last of the full credit. It's not going to be a secret, everyone will know and maybe some fireworks.
DragonWatch
Small FootPrint
The future is Tesla's.
Get a charge out of this article Why 2017 will go down as the beginning of the end of the internal combustion engine
I am amped up
Get a charge out of this article Why 2017 will go down as the beginning of the end of the internal combustion engine
I am amped up
The future is Tesla's.
Get a charge out of this article Why 2017 will go down as the beginning of the end of the internal combustion engine
I am amped up
I think the author's conclusion is correct. I think we will look at 2017 as the turning point in the transition from ICE to EVs.
He cites three factors -- China regulations, the Model 3 introduction and legacy manufacturers' announcements.
But I believe all three ultimately collapse into one factor -- Tesla and the Model 3. They have allowed the world to recognize that electric cars are not just possible but desirable, and have forced the competition to start to face up to the fact that they cannot survive if they don't switch, eventually.
Now, Tesla just needs to build a few more and get the party started ....
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Posted this in the market action thread, but really it belongs here.
The robot feeding arm barely gets away in time. That must have taking some "practice" to get right.
sub
Active Member
USA vins of course. @Reciprocity is correct and I feel silly for not realizing the solution from the beginning. The slight delay is going to be a pain for my family, daughter is getting her license in December and we need a 3rd car. May have to get the X or deal with being one car short for an unknown period of time.
dmckinstry
Model X 2019
And how would you like to try manually feeding the sheets in at half the speed?
Waiting4M3
Active Member
More evidence that M3 production line is running, and not hand built. So stamping is go, BIW assembly/welding is go, what part of the production will Elon show a video of next? I hope we get to see some kind of alien-dreadnought precursor that shows them going in through the glass roof opening to assemble in 3D.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
Yes, now is the beginning of the end for ICE, and the end of the beginning for EV.I think the author's conclusion is correct. I think we will look at 2017 as the turning point in the transition from ICE to EVs.
He cites three factors -- China regulations, the Model 3 introduction and legacy manufacturers' announcements.
But I believe all three ultimately collapse into one factor -- Tesla and the Model 3. They have allowed the world to recognize that electric cars are not just possible but desirable, and have forced the competition to start to face up to the fact that they cannot survive if they don't switch, eventually.
Now, Tesla just needs to build a few more and get the party started ....
If he shows a video of electrical harnesses installed by robots, game over.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
How many panels are there in each M3? 10? 20? This 23K/day rate seems about right to stamp enough panels for ~1K cars a day.
Looking at recent pictures of production M3 in the TMC thread, it seems the panel fit of the rear driver side door vs the quarter panel has improved since July/August. I've seen the non-optimum fitting on SN003 up close in person. It's good to see that that is no longer a concern, in both quality and quantity.
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