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2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

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The short power outages ruining cells seems really suspect, i know they have powerpacks installed at fremont, seems likely the gigafactory would also have some.
If they are indeed behind schedule producing batteries, it would not surprise me if they made the decision to wait to install power packs at the Giga factory, until the manufacturing for them was running smoothly. My understanding is that they are doing the same with solar panels, waiting until the Buffalo facility is up and running. If power outages is actually a problem for the manufacturing, you can bet they are scrambling to get power packs installed. Even so, it would take some time, they would have to submit plans for permit, get the permit, install, get inspections, commissioning etc.
 
Hey guys....

Here is an article from CNBC.. Phil LeBeau.... typical crap article...
Investors giving 'cash incineration engine' Tesla a lot of rope, but may soon lose patience.

Phil LeBeau on Twitter

This headline is misleading in 2 respects... the people he is referring to are investors only in the broadest sense of the word, in that they are are long/short hedge fund, which is in an investment vehicle. But with regards to Tesla they are shorts. Furthermore, they're not "losing patience", they are actively betting against Tesla.

I have responded to him

andrew thomas on Twitter

Anyway... my thought is... I see this all the time... link bait headline... and in the article... they basically contradict themselves.

Here is a blog I wrote about reviews of the Chevy Bolt... where they make grand claims in the headline that the Bolt is a big problem for Tesla but then rein in the claims with disclaimers that largely contradict the headline.

The media on Tesla versus the Chevy Bolt – Andrew Thomas – Medium

Does anyone have any idea about how we could shame or tarnish the reputation of these journalists that do this? Or somehow incentivize them to report more honestly? I may start putting up more tweets like that... I am also trying to think of a good hash tag to express this idea... #linkbait #fakenews I don't know. The other problem is that by tweeting it's just drawing more attention to them. Any ideas?

Phil LeBeau disappointed me with his click-bait tweet. He tweets as though he apparently agrees with the Tesla short seller and put owner quoted in the article. He may have been restating opinions expressed in the article, but it comes off appearing as his own opinion.

Modern "journalists" too often rely on questionable quotes from those with vested interests to obtain clicks. That particularly should not be the case with financial news, but sadly it is nowadays. It wasn't the way it was done during my time in the profession.
 
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He may blow things out of the portion a bit, but the problem he raised are quite likely.

To what extent these minor outages do harm to GF1's production, I don't know.

Now the workforce on the Panasonic side in GF1 consists of US workers so of course communication problems would be more, not less, than before.

Like I said, just enough fodder to create a smidge of credibility and sow seeds of doubt. Communication problems can occur in any team and not insurmountable especially with Panasonic which have factories all over the world, not just Japan so they are used to dealing with the international community.
 
Montana Skeptic just published an article on SA that might draw the attention of Morgan Stanley legal team.

In it he states (among other libelous statements) :

Why did Adam Jonas rush out a report that ignores the issues raised in the business press about Model 3 delays, and instead offers half-baked reasons for increasing his price target?

Because, gentle readers, Morgan Stanley is a Tesla underwriter. It has collected millions in underwriting fees so far, and it knows Tesla will need billions more in capital raises to stay afloat. It wants a seat at the table for those offerings, and it knows the next one will be coming before Q1 2018 ends.

Tesla had just suffered a $14 per share price reversal in the wake of bad news. So, what better way to show that Morgan Stanley is loyal, devoted, and faithful to the Tesla flag than to rush out a report with a dramatic target price hike?

And, give Morgan Stanley this: the hastily organized rescue mission appears to have worked. Monday's share price erosion was largely restored on Tuesday after the Morgan Stanley note appeared and was immediately publicized by businessinsider, MarketWatch, CNBC, here at Seeking Alpha, etc.



Combined with his recent Tweets, feels like a meltdown to me. Montana's position might be hurting him badly, and IMHO he is getting very close to serious libel.

Should Morgan Stanley legal get after him, hiding behind anonymous author is not going to help Montana Skeptic much. Just Morgan Stanley suing him will hurt his finances badly, no matter if it ever gets to a court case.

I’m all about feeding him as much rope as he can wrap around his neck.
 
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Like I said, just enough fodder to create a smidge of credibility and sow seeds of doubt. Communication problems can occur in any team and not insurmountable especially with Panasonic which have factories all over the world, not just Japan so they are used to dealing with the international community.
If those comments, on what looks to be a very thinly read comment section, on an obscure article about Tesla were a complete fabrication to spread FUD, that was an incredibly subtle, long con way to go about it. The poster had a long history of comments that made it at least look credible that he lived in the area. It was not even that negative, as he indicated that they were quality obsessed. The negativity was toward Panasonic and not really Tesla. And it does not seem to have spread to all the other major news sources.

I think that whoever posted that comment might have an incomplete view of the bigger picture of what is going on, and may be biased in multiple ways, but at least in his mind, he thinks it is a fair representation.
 
Friend spotted this M3 this morning in Chicago. Interesting that the car is titled in IL.
 

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Off topic but I've been wondering how the tax rebate will be handled as it runs out next year. How is the IRS going to know who gets the rebate? I first thought that Tesla would report who bought cars within each rebate period (full, half etc) and when individual taxes were filed then the rebate would be given that way. However, not everyone qualifies for the rebate and therefore the IRS will not know until everyone has filed meaning someone that qualified may miss the rebate.

Anyone with a better idea of how this will be handled? I have a December-Feb delivery window but with the recent delay I'm not expecting my car in 2017. I've been considering buying a model X before year end but haven't been able to justify the extra expense. If cost was the same I would prefer the X due to lower back issues.
 
Off topic but I've been wondering how the tax rebate will be handled as it runs out next year. How is the IRS going to know who gets the rebate? I first thought that Tesla would report who bought cars within each rebate period (full, half etc) and when individual taxes were filed then the rebate would be given that way. However, not everyone qualifies for the rebate and therefore the IRS will not know until everyone has filed meaning someone that qualified may miss the rebate.

Anyone with a better idea of how this will be handled? I have a December-Feb delivery window but with the recent delay I'm not expecting my car in 2017. I've been considering buying a model X before year end but haven't been able to justify the extra expense. If cost was the same I would prefer the X due to lower back issues.

My understanding it is ALL about sales/delivery number: Tesla reports each sale/delivery in the US to the IRS regardless of whether you qualify for the tax credit up to the 200K vehicle number.

Then, the clock starts ticking for the following quarters and decreasing tax credit.
 
The government in Norway wants to add a registration tax on BEVs based on curb weight. The only BEV affected seems to be the Model X with up to 10k USD in added taxes.

Google Oversetter

It remains to be seen if this proposal will survive the negotiations with the other parties, but this is definitely a surprising move. If it is implemented, the impact to Tesla should be minimal, at least for 2018. But the tax would likely be increased over the next few years.

I think it could pass, but only with added taxes to the PHEVs as well. I find it unlikely that the Liberal Party would support this proposal, without something in return.
 
My understanding it is ALL about sales/delivery number: Tesla reports each sale/delivery in the US to the IRS regardless of whether you qualify for the tax credit.
So, your question implies (hopes) that some new owners may not qualify because of their tax category/tax do and that they might not 'count' towards the 200K trigger and someone behind them might and can take it. Nope.

Ah, I guess it depends on how it's worded. If it states first 200k vins are eligible for rebate vs there being 200k tax rebates. I see your point and that makes sense. Thanks.
 
Off topic but I've been wondering how the tax rebate will be handled as it runs out next year. How is the IRS going to know who gets the rebate? I first thought that Tesla would report who bought cars within each rebate period (full, half etc) and when individual taxes were filed then the rebate would be given that way. However, not everyone qualifies for the rebate and therefore the IRS will not know until everyone has filed meaning someone that qualified may miss the rebate.

Anyone with a better idea of how this will be handled? I have a December-Feb delivery window but with the recent delay I'm not expecting my car in 2017. I've been considering buying a model X before year end but haven't been able to justify the extra expense. If cost was the same I would prefer the X due to lower back issues.

It really shouldn't be that hard. I am sure that Tesla has to report to the Fed when they deliver the 200,000th car. From there, anyone claiming the credit must take delivery of the car in that quarter or the next for the full credit. The next two quarters for the 1/2 credit and so on until its completely phased out. Since this date will more then likely be mid year, it wont be a mystery by the time you file your taxes, though you are correct that you might not exactly know the day you take delivery, but im sure your sales person will let you know.

I am going to go out on a limb and say you will be find if you take delivery by Feb. 2018. But I would buy an X instead anyway.
 
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It really shouldn't be that hard. I am sure that Tesla has to report to the Fed when they deliver the 200,000th car. From there, anyone claiming the credit must take delivery of the car in that quarter or the next for the full credit. The next two quarters for the 1/2 credit and so on until its completely phased out. Since this date will more then likely be mid year, it wont be a mystery by the time you file your taxes, though you are correct that you might not exactly know the day you take delivery, but im sure your sales person will let you know.

I am going to go out on a limb and say you will be find if you take delivery by Feb. 2018. But I would buy an X instead anyway.

@AIMc understood my question and I believe has the right answer. My initial thought was how do they know how many within the final 200k + additional qtrs are not eligible for the tax rebate before that years taxes were filed. It's never been an issue until next year when Tesla is the first to reach the cutoff. I agree with AIMc that it's 200k vins are eligible, if there is 10k people in that 200k that don't pay enough taxes it doesn't matter, it doesn't extend to 210k vins. This makes it easy and clean, not sure why i didn't think of that.

I'm going to reach out to the last Tesla sales rep I test drive with and see what type of inventory model X they have.
 
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@AIMc understood my question and I believe has the right answer. My initial thought was how do they know how many within the final 200k + additional qtrs are not eligible for the tax rebate before that years taxes were filed. It's never been an issue until next year when Tesla is the first to reach the cutoff. I agree with AIMc that it's 200k vins are eligible, if there is 10k people in that 200k that don't pay enough taxes it doesn't matter, it doesn't extend to 210k vins. This makes it easy and clean, not sure why i didn't think of that.

I'm going to reach out to the last Tesla sales rep I test drive with and see what type of inventory model X they have.

Not certain that you get it.. Here is the scenario that is actually very likely to happen.

1) Jan 15th, 2018 - Tesla delivers its 200,000th car in the US. Every one of the 200,000 qualify for the credit.
2) Since it was delivered in Q1, every car delivered in Q1 and Q2 get 100% of the credit. You just have to take delivery in the quarter.
3) I dont care how the Fed knows, if they audit you and you took a credit you shouldnt its on you. There is no magical way to take the credit, you just fill out the right form and put your vehicle information including VIN.
4) The next 2 quarters are half and then next two after that are half and then 0 tax credit after that. It does not matter how many cars. If you take deliver in Q3 or Q4 its half the credit. If you take delivery Q1 or Q2 of 2019, then its 1/4 the credit. It does not matter how many cars.
5) You dont file your 2018 taxes until 2019, so you will know if you dont know before from your sales rep or when you place your order on the site. There is no mystery it will be well publicized.
 
The government in Norway wants to add a registration tax on BEVs based on curb weight. The only BEV affected seems to be the Model X with up to 10k USD in added taxes.

Google Oversetter

It remains to be seen if this proposal will survive the negotiations with the other parties, but this is definitely a surprising move. If it is implemented, the impact to Tesla should be minimal, at least for 2018. But the tax would likely be increased over the next few years.

I think it could pass, but only with added taxes to the PHEVs as well. I find it unlikely that the Liberal Party would support this proposal, without something in return.

Someone near the Government said that......

There is no confirmation or official information here its just a rumor. Lets wait with excitement when we have concrete information.
 
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The government in Norway wants to add a registration tax on BEVs based on curb weight. The only BEV affected seems to be the Model X with up to 10k USD in added taxes.

Google Oversetter

It remains to be seen if this proposal will survive the negotiations with the other parties, but this is definitely a surprising move. If it is implemented, the impact to Tesla should be minimal, at least for 2018. But the tax would likely be increased over the next few years.

I think it could pass, but only with added taxes to the PHEVs as well. I find it unlikely that the Liberal Party would support this proposal, without something in return.
This is by the media called the Tesla-tax, but as Yggdrasil says the way it's worded it seems the S will get around $1000 and the heaviest EVs (which is the XP100D) get upto around $9000. Keep in mind this would probably affect the Audi Quattro Ev they've accepted preorders for in Norway as well. As we don't know if this gets voted in yet or the specifics I can't say much more right now. Officially the budget is published tomorrow and then it needs to be voted on, so regardless the earliest the effect will come is 1 jan 2018. So Q4 might be very aggressive for Norway sales of X and S.

Cobos
 
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