-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
- Status
GM will not do well in China's EV market. They barely registered in the monthly sales report. Tesla has no FOREIGN competitors in China. It owns their foreign market.
Pollution is a serious problem in China. China will faze out ICE cars as soon as possible.
Nevermind, it didn't even registered at all..
China Electric Car Sales Score Record Month (China Electric Car Sales Report)
In 1997, Steve Jobs did say he was going to replace it with a paradigm shift - that is how he visualized it.
We can say the same about Elon Musk, with his Master Plan. Only thing different is he also made the public aware of it.
Now Tesla will not be the only benificary of this paradigm shift, but the shift has already happened. Even DieselGate is now going electric.
If you are just against Tesla, then ya only time will tell how well it does, whether it maintains its first mover competitive advantage, whether Silicon valley innovativiness/ agility wins etc. - But if you are against Electrification, I think battle is already lost, there is no going back. ICE age is almost over .. it is thawing as we speak and it's gonna melt into oblivion.
in 2007 AAPL reported $24b w/ a GP of $8.5b and net income of $3.5b
in 2008 AAPL reported $32b w/ a GP of $11.5b and net income of $4.8b
that's 35% GP in 2008... and huge profits... that's awesome!
in 2016 TSLA reported $7b w/ a GP of $1.5b and net income of ($675m)
in 2017 TSLA (will) report $10b w/ a GP of $??? and a net income of ($???)
that sucks!
Tesla is NOT Apple... and the results would not be the same proportionally... because Tesla is in a completely different industry.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Off Shore
Off Topic Member
Climate Change Ends the ICE Age!
2virgule5
Member
to @myusername
None of these auto companies have embraced what is now widely recognized to be the energy of the future, so they are facing a significant challenge to adapt their business equation and loose a big part of their IP and bread+butter in the process. Do you think a company like Seagate (mechanical hard drives) has a long future in a world that is moving to flash storage? They certainly have a right to exist and bring profit for the next few years but after that? What do you learn from their P/S ratio, apart that not a lot of people are seeing a future for them? China and Europe are moving to ban their products within the next 15 years, what will happen to their value as we get closer to this wall?
I’m also not aware of any products from any of these companies that is as exciting and safe as a Tesla, and none in their pipeline that can seriously compete with one. You should try one. Many people will see them, and M3 in particular, and are going to want one, period. And they keep improving every few months, at a rate not seen in this industry since forever, with a distinct attempt to vertical integration, with total control over hardware, software and consumer experience. Like Apple.
200k MS/MX and 1,3M M3 sounds actually like a reasonable target. Tesla is half-way there for the luxury segment (which is decimating some of the best cars of the old guard), and, of course, there is still a large gap for M3 that we've been discussing for years on this forum. There is a plan and most of the infrastructure for half a million per year, maybe up to one million at some point not too distant in the future - and yes of course we'll have more announcements soon.
At the end of the day let's agree on the fact that all of this is a huge bet since its inception. Tesla shares are going higher because year after year their likelihood of success is getting higher - look at what they achieved since 2013. Do they deserve their valuation? Well, my limited understanding is that it’s the market job to give them one. A part of it may be irrational, but when the same CEO is capable of building teams and attracting talents that can land orbital rockets back on earth and relaunch them, it signals to many, including me, that it is worth a try.
None of these auto companies have embraced what is now widely recognized to be the energy of the future, so they are facing a significant challenge to adapt their business equation and loose a big part of their IP and bread+butter in the process. Do you think a company like Seagate (mechanical hard drives) has a long future in a world that is moving to flash storage? They certainly have a right to exist and bring profit for the next few years but after that? What do you learn from their P/S ratio, apart that not a lot of people are seeing a future for them? China and Europe are moving to ban their products within the next 15 years, what will happen to their value as we get closer to this wall?
I’m also not aware of any products from any of these companies that is as exciting and safe as a Tesla, and none in their pipeline that can seriously compete with one. You should try one. Many people will see them, and M3 in particular, and are going to want one, period. And they keep improving every few months, at a rate not seen in this industry since forever, with a distinct attempt to vertical integration, with total control over hardware, software and consumer experience. Like Apple.
200k MS/MX and 1,3M M3 sounds actually like a reasonable target. Tesla is half-way there for the luxury segment (which is decimating some of the best cars of the old guard), and, of course, there is still a large gap for M3 that we've been discussing for years on this forum. There is a plan and most of the infrastructure for half a million per year, maybe up to one million at some point not too distant in the future - and yes of course we'll have more announcements soon.
At the end of the day let's agree on the fact that all of this is a huge bet since its inception. Tesla shares are going higher because year after year their likelihood of success is getting higher - look at what they achieved since 2013. Do they deserve their valuation? Well, my limited understanding is that it’s the market job to give them one. A part of it may be irrational, but when the same CEO is capable of building teams and attracting talents that can land orbital rockets back on earth and relaunch them, it signals to many, including me, that it is worth a try.
bdy0627
Active Member
Finally! I hope it goes through. We need a store here. The linked article seems a little misleading about superchargers here in Wisconsin though. It says there is 1 currently in Madison and Tesla is planning another one in Madison in the future. While it is true that they are planning for another one in Madison, we currently have 8 SCs around the state with another 5 planned to open over the next year. Anyway, I'll cross my fingers on this bill getting through.
Thanks for sharing, Rob. That would be great if the bill becomes law. It may lead to an awakening of other protectionist states in the manner of toppling dominoes.
I live in northern Illinois, not far from Wisconsin. During the morning of 2016 MAR 31 I was in a long queue at the Highland Park Tesla store to place a deposit on a Model 3. The man in front of me and the woman behind me were from Wisconsin. This was their closest Tesla store. They despised the Wisconsin politicians who were in the pockets of the franchised dealerships of other manufacturers. They said they were doing what they could to rectify the situation. They may have succeeded. Perhaps Wisconsin wants the next Tesla factory.
LargeHamCollider
Battery cells != scalable
There are times when Elon is deliberately ambiguous. If you try to find in everything he says a definitive claim, you will be frustrated. If you take everything he says as definitive in the most rosy sense, you will be even more frustrated. For anyone here relatively new to Tesla and learning this first hand rather than from having tuned into the experience of others here who discussed quite a bit what the likely timing of the actual milestones (starting point, 2017 deliveries, hit 5K/week,...) of the ramp might look like, this may be frustrating. It's not, however, a failure or cause for blame either for Elon or the relatively new Tesla follower. (fwiw, I found the 500,000 claim ambiguous in multiple ways from the first time I heard it... but, I've had the benefit of developing some fluency in Elon's dialect over quite a few years and took this as Elon delivering some guidance which could fit with a range of different sets of events.)
Is Elon's ambiguity duplicitous? I actually think Elon more often than not (though not always) is ambiguous in looking after our best interest as investors as a result of his looking after the best interests of Tesla... such as laughing off Adam Jonas suggestion of a Tesla autonomous Uber competitor for about a year (rather than highlighting to potential competition what is now a heated race) communicating about the timing and details of improvements coming up for the S or X (rather than undermining near term sales), details on the Model 3 features/the effective embargo on early Model 3 owners sharing much detail on the car... and most relevant of late, guidance for the Model 3 ramp.
As I've said a couple of times in the market action thread, I give Elon a preliminary A- on his guidance of this Model 3 ramp (for context I give him a "D" on guidance/communication for the X ramp). Elon had to thread a needle of giving a message to suppliers and internal teams that July was to be taken seriously as a deadline, while letting investors (and consumers) know to expect the ramp to be some as yet unknown amount of months later than expected. We've gotten this message many times. I'm very appreciative it seems the vast majority of suppliers heard their message as intended. I'm also quite appreciative as an investor and a consumer, Elon sent me the message that Tesla had ease of production in mind, but that did not mean the ramp was going to just march to the orders of what was mapped out on paper (afterall, just getting to 5K/week is a ramp 10X the Model S ramp, and 5X the Model X ramp).
as a quick example of Musk telling us not to expect the ideal schedule he's outlined, consider this from the Q2 earnings call re the Model 3 ramp,
"Certainly. I mean, I do want to emphasize like but a lot of us is actually very hard for us to know. When we make mistakes is because we're stupid, not because we're trying to mislead anyone. I just want to emphasize – I – we aspire to be less dumb over time. So if I knew it, I would tell you. It's sort of like I've got this, like secret hand of cards that I'm holding close to my vest and I'm not telling you. It's just fundamentally impossible to predict the exponential part of the manufacturing S-curve. It's crazy hard. And S-curve is a simplification because it's really running through a series of constraints that, if you – it's like a really jagged sort of upward growth and it'll plateau and then it'll grow rapidly, and it'll plateau again. And then sometimes it'll go backwards because something broke.
Yes. When I said manufacturing hell and supply-chain hell on Friday. I meant it. I mean, we know this. Signed up for it. Not blaming hell because when we bought the ticket."
He's explicitly telling us it is unpredictable, and he's telling us that the "production hell" comment wasn't only a call to the troops to let them know stress and long hours lie ahead, but, also a repetition of the message that the plan on paper will be executed at a "fundamentally impossible to predict" speed. So much of the media is ready and willing to mischaracterize this 10X per day... but there is no indication the ramp has been anything other than the unpredictable process we were repeatedly told it would be.
Last edited:
Hey Guys,
Long time lurker here. Love this forum and want to thank all of the amazing contributors.
I wanted to provide some anecdotal details as I've recently been privy to.
1. Recently did a Tesla Factory Tour (Signed NDA so can't talk about it) but did briefly check out the parking lot. I mentioned to someone that I really wanted to see a model 3 and they said there's one out back its an employee car and had been there for several days. There ended up being 2 M3s with early VINs (00030's and mid 000140's). Also saw 3 other Model 3s in the parking lot, but didn't get up close. I'm sure there were more there but we didn't spend much time looking.
Quick Impressions: The car is stunning. Sport wheels are awesome. Dash is really low compared to a normal car, must have incredible driver visibility. Exterior Paint quality looks exceptional. Interior looks plush and comfortable. Got to see a couple with aero wheels with caps on and off. Cap is kinda flimsy but they look great with them off. Anyway that's all stuff you guys probably already know.
2. On the drive home we saw not one but two Model 3s on the road!
3. I was recently in China (Shanghai, etc) for business and saw significantly more Tesla's on the road then previous trips (I go about twice a year) Saw many model X's (more than MS) which I have rarely seen there before. I know this is completely anecdotal but I would say the increase was 4x or more, quite noticeable.
4. Also did a SpaceX factory tour and it was fun to see the similarities and differences
A few other parting thoughts...
A couple of years ago I got really interested in TSLA and decided to go SUPER deep on studying the business before making the investment. I spent a lot of time learning the science, the first principles behind the transformative shift in energy thats occurring. I would highly recommend reading this article if you haven't its the perfect 1st principles starter: How Tesla Will Change The World - Wait But Why . The competitive advantages Tesla has is truly staggering and the roadmap is quite clear. The other automakers are stuck in one of the largest and most difficult innovators dilemmas ever faced. TSLA is lightning fast nimble company that is not afraid to take risk and are moving literally as fast as humanly possible. I truly believe they will be one of the largest companies in the world.
But... It's important to think objectively and not get hype blind. Take the DaveT mindset. It will certainly be a bumpy road full of volatility. There will be mistakes, pivots and missed deadlines. There will be momentum shifts both positive and negative. The competition will not die quietly and will fight in every possible way.
In the end, it's going to be one hell of a ride. Enjoy the journey!
Thanks again for all of your contributions and discussions. TMC is quite a special place.
Oh...and here's a few pictures
Long time lurker here. Love this forum and want to thank all of the amazing contributors.
I wanted to provide some anecdotal details as I've recently been privy to.
1. Recently did a Tesla Factory Tour (Signed NDA so can't talk about it) but did briefly check out the parking lot. I mentioned to someone that I really wanted to see a model 3 and they said there's one out back its an employee car and had been there for several days. There ended up being 2 M3s with early VINs (00030's and mid 000140's). Also saw 3 other Model 3s in the parking lot, but didn't get up close. I'm sure there were more there but we didn't spend much time looking.
Quick Impressions: The car is stunning. Sport wheels are awesome. Dash is really low compared to a normal car, must have incredible driver visibility. Exterior Paint quality looks exceptional. Interior looks plush and comfortable. Got to see a couple with aero wheels with caps on and off. Cap is kinda flimsy but they look great with them off. Anyway that's all stuff you guys probably already know.
2. On the drive home we saw not one but two Model 3s on the road!
3. I was recently in China (Shanghai, etc) for business and saw significantly more Tesla's on the road then previous trips (I go about twice a year) Saw many model X's (more than MS) which I have rarely seen there before. I know this is completely anecdotal but I would say the increase was 4x or more, quite noticeable.
4. Also did a SpaceX factory tour and it was fun to see the similarities and differences
A few other parting thoughts...
A couple of years ago I got really interested in TSLA and decided to go SUPER deep on studying the business before making the investment. I spent a lot of time learning the science, the first principles behind the transformative shift in energy thats occurring. I would highly recommend reading this article if you haven't its the perfect 1st principles starter: How Tesla Will Change The World - Wait But Why . The competitive advantages Tesla has is truly staggering and the roadmap is quite clear. The other automakers are stuck in one of the largest and most difficult innovators dilemmas ever faced. TSLA is lightning fast nimble company that is not afraid to take risk and are moving literally as fast as humanly possible. I truly believe they will be one of the largest companies in the world.
But... It's important to think objectively and not get hype blind. Take the DaveT mindset. It will certainly be a bumpy road full of volatility. There will be mistakes, pivots and missed deadlines. There will be momentum shifts both positive and negative. The competition will not die quietly and will fight in every possible way.
In the end, it's going to be one hell of a ride. Enjoy the journey!
Thanks again for all of your contributions and discussions. TMC is quite a special place.
Oh...and here's a few pictures
dennis
Model S Plaid
Oh yeah, I remember that week. I sold at $90 since it had run from $55, expecting to buy back in on a dip. I finally got my chance 33 months later - at $175.
I used to work in datacenters. The power consumption (and power bills) were massive, yet we had enough UPS banks to keep them alive for a minimum of 10 minutes (plenty of time to leisurely stroll outside and manually start the diesel gensets if they didn't auto start - I never experienced the gensets taking longer than 1-2 seconds to autostart though). Luckily efficiency increases have more or less kept pace with datacenter expansions over the last few years, so power needs have levelled off. The main one I worked at had 3 great big diesel gensets at the time (each basically a full sized shipping container parked permanently - from memory I think they were each 1-1.5MW, but it's been a long time and I'm not sure), and this was about a decade ago. The UPS room was not small, but by no means big compared to the rest of the facility. And this was all on much older technology (the battery banks were all sealed lead acid batteries and had to be replaced every few years).
So while it's possible there was a failure to plan for the inevitable ... I'd be surprised.
My recollection was that the short interest during those 6 months ranged from a high of mid-to-high 20s, to high teens. Tesla basically went from a hardly known $3 billion company to probably the most talked about stock on Wall Street, and the news coverage went beyond the financial media. Events like Elon unrolling a "5-part trilogy" of announcements over a couple of months which the media tripped over themselves to cover and Consumer Report's 99/100 rating of the Model S (highest ever for them, done once before by one ICE car among thousands tested) basically made Tesla and Elon celebrities of 2013, and Tesla's product a mind blowing new kind of cool, with sports car like performance and Prius lapping fuel economy in a big smooth looking and riding sedan. As to market participants pricing Tesla, executing the Model S ramp was quite like a biotech having it's first FDA drug approval. Moving overnight from the shadow of collapse if not approved to having a desirable substantial source of revenue for the first time pulls in buyers of the stock and can send biotechs up several fold like Tesla's 2013 move.
I don't think there was a short-squeeze in 2013. I don't expect one. Ever see a company get pummeled in the media the way Tesla does and for years (consider Tesla actually publicly made this statement earlier in the month, "“For over a decade, the WSJ has relentlessly attacked Tesla with misleading articles that, with few exceptions, push or exceed the boundaries of journalistic integrity.") I think there's a very real chance the bulk of the short position is not about misguided market participants, just as I think the majority of media pummeling is not about "clueless" journalists (and its far from limited to the WSJ). I don't think the short position or the media pummeling go away anytime soon. There are a couple of trillion dollar sand castles some folks aren't ready to sit back and passively watch get taken out by the waves. Beating on Tesla and TSLA through widespread media messaging and making TSLA the most shorted stock on Wall Street be an active way of trying to resist this change. It's a theory, I may be wrong, but, my expectation is set to, the smear pieces and outsized short position aren't going anywhere anytime soon.
Last edited:
in case it has not yet been posted: Panasonic CEO says could soon increase output at Tesla's gigafactory battery plant
- Status
Similar threads
- Sticky
- Locked
