2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[dhrivnak]

I used to work in datacenters. The power consumption (and power bills) were massive, yet we had enough UPS banks to keep them alive for a minimum of 10 minutes (plenty of time to leisurely stroll outside and manually start the diesel gensets if they didn't auto start - I never experienced the gensets taking longer than 1-2 seconds to autostart though). Luckily efficiency increases have more or less kept pace with datacenter expansions over the last few years, so power needs have levelled off. The main one I worked at had 3 great big diesel gensets at the time (each basically a full sized shipping container parked permanently - from memory I think they were each 1-1.5MW, but it's been a long time and I'm not sure), and this was about a decade ago. The UPS room was not small, but by no means big compared to the rest of the facility. And this was all on much older technology (the battery banks were all sealed lead acid batteries and had to be replaced every few years).

So while it's possible there was a failure to plan for the inevitable ... I'd be surprised.

For our operation (and the gigafactory) is to be close to our scale we used a LOT of power, like 75 rail cars of coal/day for our three onsite full sized coal power plants with at least 9 boilers. So three large diesel generators would not come close except for the smallest of our operations.

 

[vgrinshpun]

05/08/2013 - close $55.79
05/09/2013 - high $75.77

that's 35% (40% according to article) from previous close to next day's high... why?...

Tesla stock up 40% this week

"Just how dramatic has the spike in Tesla been? Consider this. Tesla's market value is now nearly $9 billion. By way of comparison, General Motor, (GM) the nation's largest automaker, has a market value of about $43 billion.

So GM is worth only five times as much as Tesla. But GM reported 65 times more revenue, 100 times more profit and nearly 500 times more vehicles sold globally than Tesla in the first quarter."

20 quarters later and the story is: Tesla reported one (two?) profitable quarters since then... GM delivers 100x more cars... and Tesla (for a while) had a higher market value than GM.

EDIT: Tesla drives California environmental credits to the bank

without ZEV credits it wouldn't have been profitable in 2013 for that quarter... as well as in Q3 2016.

There would not be any credits sold by Tesla if OEMs would put serious effort into building compelling electric cars instead of trying to change the rules. BTW, if GM would have done it, their stock would compare much more favorably to Tesla's.

 

[Ovulation]

Reuters - this morning: U.S. trade panel recommends solar panel import restrictions

Good for Tesla I guess, some people had concerns that the operation up in New York would have problems competing with the Chinese. After the solar roof unveil I was not really concerned about it any more, because the solar roof makes solar panels from a commodity to a luxury good , so not price sensitive and now I'm even less concerned ... of course who knows if the president will sign a bill that taxes Chinese products and will probaly cut solar installations in the US.

 

[Paracelsus]

... of course who knows if the president will sign a bill that taxes Chinese products and will probaly cut solar installations in the US.

That was my immediate reaction as well - that this was a move to reduce the rate of solar implementation that had been dressed up to look like it was a move aimed at supporting US manufacturing............lipstick on the pig - and the pig is the fossil fuel industry!

Thanks for your thoughts on this @Ovulation

 

[Curt Renz]

Benzinga - this afternoon: Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F), Tesla Motors, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) - Ford Chair Bill Ford At Speech To Detroit Economic Club Says 'I don't want to say anything negative about Tesla. They've done a really nice job. My hat's off to them.'

 

[dirtyofries]

Benzinga - this afternoon: Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F), Tesla Motors, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) - Ford Chair Bill Ford At Speech To Detroit Economic Club Says 'I don't want to say anything negative about Tesla. They've done a really nice job. My hat's off to them.'

Headline is the whole article. Ugh, Benzinga.

Anyone have a video of this?

 

[trils0n]

of course who knows if the president will sign a bill that taxes Chinese products and will probaly cut solar installations in the US.

Trump wants tariffs on imported Chinese goods. Just a few months ago he bemoaned the fact no one has sent him a tariff bill to sign. A Chinese solar tariff would be great for Trump. He'd frame it as fixing those "bad deals" with China that he campaigned on, and I think it would be popular among his supporters. Sticking it to the Chinese, and to greens, plus would be welcomed by the fossil fuel industry. Win Win. Except for the 1000s of American solar installation jobs that will be lost. But of course he won't mention that.

'I want tariffs': Trump is reportedly pushing hard for a policy that could start a trade war
Exclusive: Trump vents in Oval Office, "I want tariffs. Bring me some tariffs!"

"So, John, I want you to know, this is my view," Trump said, per Axios. "I want tariffs. And I want someone to bring me some tariffs."

"John, let me tell you why they didn't bring me any tariffs," Trump said in the meeting. "I know there are some people in the room right now that are upset. I know there are some globalists in the room right now. And they don't want them, John, they don't want the tariffs. But I'm telling you, I want tariffs."

 

[Waiting4M3]

Good for Tesla I guess, some people had concerns that the operation up in New York would have problems competing with the Chinese. After the solar roof unveil I was not really concerned about it any more, because the solar roof makes solar panels from a commodity to a luxury good , so not price sensitive and now I'm even less concerned ... of course who knows if the president will sign a bill that taxes Chinese products and will probaly cut solar installations in the US.

Maybe the solar installation guys should start a grass root Twitter campaign at Trump about keeping their jobs. He seems to be very flexible about what he wants as long as he can "win" Twitter.

 

[DurandalAI]

Good for Tesla I guess, some people had concerns that the operation up in New York would have problems competing with the Chinese. After the solar roof unveil I was not really concerned about it any more, because the solar roof makes solar panels from a commodity to a luxury good , so not price sensitive and now I'm even less concerned ... of course who knows if the president will sign a bill that taxes Chinese products and will probaly cut solar installations in the US.

This result isn’t a surprise. It is terribly disappointing, however. This will slow solar adoption in the United States. I think the decision will be immaterial to Tesla however, neither negative nor positive mostly due to the low solar that Tesla currently deploys. Longer term it may hurt as the more visibility that solar has, the better for Tesla, as they have a more elegant solution.

But as mentioned elsewhere this isn’t to protect any US interests beyond the fossil fuel interests. Sigh.

 

[TradingInvest]

This result isn’t a surprise. It is terribly disappointing, however. This will slow solar adoption in the United States. I think the decision will be immaterial to Tesla however, neither negative nor positive mostly due to the low solar that Tesla currently deploys. Longer term it may hurt as the more visibility that solar has, the better for Tesla, as they have a more elegant solution.

But as mentioned elsewhere this isn’t to protect any US interests beyond the fossil fuel interests. Sigh.

I remember recently an article said Tesla is against this solar tariff. Although it's probably good for Tesla's solar production.

 

[zdriver]

Benzinga - this afternoon: Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F), Tesla Motors, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) - Ford Chair Bill Ford At Speech To Detroit Economic Club Says 'I don't want to say anything negative about Tesla. They've done a really nice job. My hat's off to them.'

Detroit EconomicClub‏ @deteconomicclub 1h1 hour ago
Ford: "Big bet being placed on electrifcation...the infrastructure needs to be built out." #econclub

 

[SteveG3]

They get it:

Yes, they get it ("reaching mass-market production is critical, whether it happens next week or in six weeks is not" [or months from now]). It's so simple to see, I'd bet nearly everyone in the media or on Wall Street covering Tesla gets it. It is so simple to see, that is why there is so much table pounding, screaming and repetition of gibberish involved in the effort to get into the public's mind a backwards version of it.

 

[Reciprocity]

ROFL..

David Einhorn wraps up a 'very challenging' last few days because of Amazon, GM

The one shining positive in Einhorn's portfolio was Tesla going down 5% this month. Erased in a day maybe? haha.

 

[ggies07]

Detroit EconomicClub‏ @deteconomicclub 1h1 hour ago
Ford: "Big bet being placed on electrifcation...the infrastructure needs to be built out." #econclub

needs? *cough*Tesla already did that*cough* see you on the flip-side MFs!!

 

[EnzoXYZ]

Thanks for sharing, Rob. That would be great if the bill becomes law. It may lead to an awakening of other protectionist states in the manner of toppling dominoes.

I live in northern Illinois, not far from Wisconsin. During the morning of 2016 MAR 31 I was in a long queue at the Highland Park Tesla store to place a deposit on a Model 3. The man in front of me and the woman behind me were from Wisconsin. This was their closest Tesla store. They despised the Wisconsin politicians who were in the pockets of the franchised dealerships of other manufacturers. They said they were doing what they could to rectify the situation. They may have succeeded. Perhaps Wisconsin wants the next Tesla factory.

I would not be surprised at all if WI is making moves to get Tesla to build a GF in WI. From what I’m hearing with the Foxconn deal is WI is looking to develop a Silicon Valley like “tech park” in SE WI. Everyone is fighting for these mega factories and it should break down plenty of existing “walls.” I get lots of info/insights on the Foxconn development lately and it’s lots of excitement for us in the Midwest.

 

[Ovulation]

This result isn’t a surprise. It is terribly disappointing, however. This will slow solar adoption in the United States. I think the decision will be immaterial to Tesla however, neither negative nor positive mostly due to the low solar that Tesla currently deploys. Longer term it may hurt as the more visibility that solar has, the better for Tesla, as they have a more elegant solution.

But as mentioned elsewhere this isn’t to protect any US interests beyond the fossil fuel interests. Sigh.

I'm not in principle against protectionism and duties if it's done intelligent, the Chinese had arguable done it wisely in the last 30 years. For me a duty is (like a subsidy) one of the best tools the state has to steer capitalism in a way you want it go, an exemple is of course solar and wind. For me the problem with globalization or I should better say a world free of duties is that it stifles innovation and automatisation. If Nike or Addidas can cut costs from moving their manufacturing to Bangladesh then they will do it, if they can't thanks to duties they will try to cut cost by other means, maybe developing robots that are cheaper than workers. So in the long run it's probably not so bad to have solar manufacturing in high wage countries, solar needs other innovations than solely outsourcing. To be fair the Chinese invest more and more in automatisation probably because incomes increase and outsourcing jobs is more difficult than in the west thanks to duties.

JinkoSolar claims new 22.04% efficiency record
Chinese PV group JinkoSolar has reached a conversion efficiency of 22.04% with its practical-sized (245.83 cm2) P-type multi-crystalline silicon solar cells, which it claims is a new world record.

Apple Manufacturer Foxconn to Fully Replace Humans With Robots

 

[Waiting4M3]

I would not be surprised at all if WI is making moves to get Tesla to build a GF in WI. From what I’m hearing with the Foxconn deal is WI is looking to develop a Silicon Valley like “tech park” in SE WI. Everyone is fighting for these mega factories and it should break down plenty of existing “walls.” I get lots of info/insights on the Foxconn development lately and it’s lots of excitement for us in the Midwest.

Didn't similar argument show up prior to GF#1, regarding Texas? IMO Tesla should ask for a heck a lot more than just WI allowing them to open stores. Being banned from opening stores is BS to start with. Accepting that would basically equal to Tesla being blackmailed into opening a factory in WI.

 

[EnzoXYZ]

Didn't similar argument show up prior to GF#1, regarding Texas? IMO Tesla should ask for a heck a lot more than just WI allowing them to open stores. Being banned from opening stores is BS to start with. Accepting that would basically equal to Tesla being blackmailed into opening a factory in WI.

Yup! Just with the Foxconn deal there are a ton of political challenges R Vs D and all that. Tesla at the end will make the best deal for itself. No doubt.

 

[Waiting4M3]

ROFL..

David Einhorn wraps up a 'very challenging' last few days because of Amazon, GM

The one shining positive in Einhorn's portfolio was Tesla going down 5% this month. Erased in a day maybe? haha.

Einhorn's problem is that he could and probably should have just stuck with value companies that he understands. Buffet doesn't get Tesla so he stays away, which is perfectly fine. Einhorn, OTOH, stuck his nose in and shorted them, he deserves whatever comes.

 

[Curt Renz]

I would not be surprised at all if WI is making moves to get Tesla to build a GF in WI. From what I’m hearing with the Foxconn deal is WI is looking to develop a Silicon Valley like “tech park” in SE WI. Everyone is fighting for these mega factories and it should break down plenty of existing “walls.” I get lots of info/insights on the Foxconn development lately and it’s lots of excitement for us in the Midwest.

Wisconsin appears to be steps ahead of Illinois. Last month I suggested by email to the Illinois Department of Commerce that they attempt to entice a Tesla factory. An official phoned me to thank me for the suggestion, but admitted he had never heard of Tesla. He then seemed impressed by my description of the company and its cars. When I told my brother, he was astonished and angered that an official in that department could be so ignorant.

The lack of advertising has kept many people outside of California in the dark about Tesla. Most people don't follow the business/financial news the way TMC members do. The good part about that is that much potential demand currently remains locked in a box awaiting eventual release.