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2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

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Even if a new factory is identical in every respect to an existing factory, I believe each robot would require tweaking. You could never get the spacing and angular alignment from robot to robot and robot to line perfect just by installing it and plugging in the program. Movement and angular data will need to be tweaked IMHO.
 
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I also don't think he realizes there is an override for the fwd, that also gives you the option to always open full at that location in the future. The doors are sensitive, but I think it's best to be conservative and not have them scratched/dented. I have a Dec 2016 model x that had none of those issues. No ghosting, the nav has never been great with traffic but otherwise fine, and auto dimming had been an issue but the lights are so good that I never find myself needing high beams. And btw, not many 6-7 seaters have a ton of space in the boot, and no others have a frunk. Basically know super huge escalades and range Rovers for the Brits. Model x also had that mini van like well in the back with the removable conver which has advantages over most 7 seaters. All but mini vans actually.

Lastly, if you're going to do a review and test of a Tesla. Get a damn adapter for home charging. It's like one of the killer features of an electric car. Waking up to a full tank at home and at many hotels.

Pretty good review over all.
I almost never see the headlights dimming for signs any more, but there are still things that can be improved. The worst bug/feature is that the high beams consistently use around 3 seconds too long to turn the high beams back on after dimming. That is an *eternity*. It means that in some traffic situations, the high beams basically never turn on, while they could have been on around 50% of the time without bothering anyone. The high beams also won't turn on below ~30 kmph, which is extremely annoying for poorly lit driveways and such. (I know some owners don't use the auto-dimming for that reason alone.) Third, when the high beams turn on, they won't turn on immediately, instead they will gradually ramp up the light. You lose something like a second on that. I am quite happy with my Model X, but it's these sort of oddities that really show that Tesla isn't a mature auto maker yet.

On the plus-side, today my windshield cracked, so I can finally get a non-ghosting windshield without feeling bad about destroying the original windshield...
 
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Hi Guys. Haven't posted in a while, but wanted the perspective from this board in particular. I’m letting the wisdom of crowds decide if I allow Jalopnik access, but It’s not looking good.

Tesla Model S60 on Twitter

I’m not trying to be cute, but the coverage of Tesla by Jalopnik has been pretty terrible. I’m a strong advocate for EVs in general, and for what Tesla is trying to accomplish in transitioning the planet to sustainable transportation.

Jalopnik . . .not so much. The feedback I've been getting is that they are bottom-feeding trolls.

If you have a different take, or there is some perspective that you personally, could share, I’m open.

Taking delivery of my first Model 3 this afternoon.
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They are going to find an M3 owner that will allow access and do their hit piece regardless. If they are compensating you, go for it, if not I would tell them to go pound sand. I wouldn't want to deal with the awkwardness of them being there during my delivery for nothing, but I'm pretty anti social so your feelings may differ on that point.
 
Yes, I read your attachment article. That article fits the FUDar scenario for me:-( Granted I do not have too many friends, but the folks I talk to are aiming towards EV. In and around Olympia, WA we are at or near 50% with Prius' and Leafs with a sprinkling of Teslas. So, I am not so sure that M3 backlog is a sign of lacking interest by the general public. While GM is pumping out hundreds of their Bolts, they neither have a backlog, nor is there an indication they are about to produce 1K a month anytime soon. So. . .

Thanks for attaching the article ~ good to read.
I would think Magna would base their estimates from conversations with execs at GM and Ford, and the other global manufacturers they work with, so I would find this very bullish for Tesla. Sounds like most of the rest of the industry is confusing the supply of good EV's with demand and will let Tesla continue to own the "small" non-compliance portion of the EV market. I think the Germans are the most aggressive and then Hyundai, excluding BYD. Having 90% of the EV market to themselves through 2021 now is just amazing. I thought in 2012 that 2015 would be the beginning of some competition and every year seems to add 18 months to serious competition showing up. Perhaps 20,000 EV Jaguar and 20,000 Porsche's will dent Tesla, but based on them fighting to match 2013 EV specs, they will really only compete based on potential style, brand affiliation and interior appointment, not motor or battery capability. Based on the limited market for the proposed Jaguar and Porsche models, I think these new cars just raise EV awareness. If Porsche can make an EV that is better than their ICE car and Tesla can make a car better than a Porsche EV, then Tesla is making a better car than Porsche.
I do hope Porsche does ok with the Mission E, not so well as to eat Tesla sales, but well enough to keep putting resources into moving to E-platforms. Same for Jaguar. I do think their branding will sell some cars, much more effectively than GM can brand the Volt, and they do make very aesthetic cars. They will do more for the branding of EV's overall than the i3 or Bolt have done. Cars that would not embarrass your wife of children.
 
The Near Future of Electric Cars: Many Models, Few Buyers
The Near Future of Electric Cars: Many Models, Few Buyers

anyone read this one today? "Magna International Inc., for example, the largest auto supplier in North America, is having vigorous debates over whether to add capacity to tool up for electric cars when its executives don’t see much demand for them over the next eight years. "
I would simply ask the CEOs to look to Norway. Yes there are good incentives. But comparing a entry level Golf to a e-Golf the price differential is actually in the entrylevel Golfs favor (yes I know the e-Golf has a lot more equipment). The difference due to our car taxes are much better for a Tesla S75D compared to a BMW 540ix price wise. But look at the electric cars with shorter ranges like the Leaf, the e-Golf etc. They sell a lot here in Norway. I think the reason for that can be divided between some arguments.
A smaller city-EV is a good city car. It has all the advantages of a small car, but also the comfort bits you get from it being an EV, and that they usually have lots of options. Like navigation and backup cameras etc. For running errands, and commuting even those short range EVs do work out. And here comes the next argument, they've seen their neighbour use one and it didn't run out of power and it does work in winter etc. That is a major change from other countries, I dare say everyone knows someone that has an EV. The're usually pretty happy with it as well.
Of course here in Norway there are some economic and convenience benefits that also help, but they are not any longer the biggest reason I dare say.
Due to the amount of EVs we have charging is of course also easier, and laws says even those living in condominiums have the right to install chargers at their own expense.

So my point is that at some point you get a self reinforcing change that more EVs leads to even more EVs and rules adopt to accomodate them. That's when they will find customers.

Cobos
 
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They are going to find an M3 owner that will allow access and do their hit piece regardless. If they are compensating you, go for it, if not I would tell them to go pound sand. I wouldn't want to deal with the awkwardness of them being there during my delivery for nothing, but I'm pretty anti social so your feelings may differ on that point.

I don't think I would feel comfortable. If a friend was having company, would I bring a guest along that I know does not like my friend, especially if I know they are going to speak poorly of my friend publicly.
 
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Many thanks for the feedback. Another (respected by me) auto journalist emailed and asked me to hold off until he arrives in Los Angeles in a few days. Based on the poor quality of Jalopnik (clickbait/trolling) I'm going to pass on giving them access.
How about if you get them to agree to include your comments re: their article (and include it as part of the article)?
 
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Just a random Tesla carrier with a couple of model 3s on the 405 towards Orange County about an hour ago.
 

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The Near Future of Electric Cars: Many Models, Few Buyers
The Near Future of Electric Cars: Many Models, Few Buyers

anyone read this one today? "Magna International Inc., for example, the largest auto supplier in North America, is having vigorous debates over whether to add capacity to tool up for electric cars when its executives don’t see much demand for them over the next eight years. "

They are absolutely right, there will not be any serious demand for 98 out if the 100 vehicles coming in the next 5 years. Model Y and Tesla pickup with be the two new vehicles with massive demand, the rest will compliance and R&D vehicles. The issues that companies like magna have is that without fully committing, they cannot be competitive. Without the massive scale, which they must understand because that is how they compete today, there will be a mix of the following major issues:

1. The cars will be 30% smaller.
2. The cars will have 30% less range.
3. Cars will cost 30% more though autos might decide to just lose money on each car.

Let's say GM tries to make a model 3 competitor based on the bolt. The Bolt already losses $10k per car, so let's say they actually break even instead. So the $37k car needs to get 30% larger, 30% more battery and range. It's possible, at scale but LG can only supply 20k/Y of the smaller packs so they would need to increase production by 30% just to get to range required for 20K model 3 competitors. Where is LGs gigafactory being built? When you look, ignore China because China has special battery requirements and those batteries are not leaving China for the next decade at a minimum.

Waiting for some magical battery advancement won't save them either because they will either have to invent it themselves or license it and maybe it will or won't be available to licence. If it where already invented then they would still need to validated it and mass produce them at a cost/density better then Tesla. Tesla was wise to leverage 20 year old tech as the basis for its packs. At the end of the day, Tesla keeps moving the goal post for completive battery tech. Incremental improvements to battery tech and massive scale will make any competitive tech less likely. With each year and each gigafactory, the goal post keeps moving for competitive tech. Let's say someone does build a completive tech and a gigafactory. At a minimum, that is a decade away.

Those 100 magical 2020 vehicles are coming. My guess is that Tesla will out sell them 2:1 combined by then. 2M for Tesla vs 10000x100. And, those 1M will lose on average $5k/car.
 
Question for everyone is, is the price of the stock already accounting for a bigger loss per share than "consensus estimates" and a miss on total revenue...

This entire situation just reminds me of January 2016 all over again. Everything is in flux, expectations too high, too many buyers who bought in and made money have yet to see their gains disappear...its all pointing to a downside move in this stock.

If you are a long term holder, none of this matters. But this bloodbath is not going to end anytime soon, in reality, it has yet to begin. Its unfortunate.

This company gets beat on endlessly and at times, there is more of "them" than "us". And it seems like this is one of those times.

It would be nice to wake up one morning and find out Google or Microsoft or a Chinese company has been buying up the float...but we just aren't going to rescued.

We are going to be served our gloom and doom over the next 2 months, unless reservations and the ramp up surprise to the upside. So get ready...

Going to be a lot of doom spread around...get ready...

The answer is to your question is yes. Having said that, there are some indications that the ramp is on track. We’ll see what management says in the upcoming report.
 
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