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Registered with NHTSA*, not assigned. So far VIN assignments have lagged NHTSA registrations by about a month, roughly.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
Is today the last "delivery day" of 2017?
At this point I am more interested in production rate than deliveries though. My expectation is that if the ramp succeeds, May 2018 could be a repeat of May 2013.
At this point I am more interested in production rate than deliveries though. My expectation is that if the ramp succeeds, May 2018 could be a repeat of May 2013.
No - I am taking delivery of my model 3 at the Marina Del Rey delivery center tomorrow
surfside
Off Shore
Off Topic Member
Happy New Year!No - I am taking delivery of my model 3 at the Marina Del Rey delivery center tomorrow
surfside
Bet TSLA
Active Member
Not really. But I imagine ramping up service, both centers and a fleet of vans, will produce some SG&A expenses. Getting the cars to the customers isn't free either.
Reciprocity
Active Member
I feel dirty. I Posted my first comment on sleezing alphalpha. I barely read that crap, with one exception, VA. But this guy was trying to say that model 3 wouldn't contribute much to cash flow by next year and was using AJ from MS note about positive cash flow for Q2 in part from increased model 3 deliveries to roughly 24k. After about 10 long mind numbing paragraphs, I realized that he never made any mention of model S/X's contribution to cash flow. As if Tesla wouldn't also be selling 25k+ of the might higher priced and larger margin vehicles. Was this just an oversight? This is why FUDsters fail even the most basic smell test. It's clear the intent was to deceive as the writer was clearly knowledgeable about the basic accounting and knew full well that Tesla sells more then just model 3.
Again, capex for model 3 production will be almost nil by Q2 2018. This cash flow advantage from model 3 comes from delivering cars faster then payments are due. Certainly this has some diminishing returns as at some point you gotta pay the bills, but the benefits are massive during the vertical party of the ramp where Tesla will be able to use the cash from last months delivers on current expenses as next month they will deliver 20% more cars and thus more free flow. Almost like a constant, interest free and growing payday loan. This levels off when Tesla hits 10k/W for a couple of months, but by then, it won't matter.
The either flat assumption was that non model 3 negative cash flow in Q2 would more inline with what it is today even though Deepak said the bulk of cap ex for model 3 would have been paid before then. FUDsters like to push the perception that capex from model 3 continues forever and every car sold is at a loss because if that. Certainly Tesla will want to invest in Y and pickup as well as semi and roadster, but that won't kick in until model 3 is at 10k per week and they are looking to duplicate those lines for Y.
Now I'm not an accountant, but I can do basic math and AJ seems to be in point with guys assessment of 1.2B in free cash flow generated in Q2 with 24k model 3s, when you factor in 2.5B revs from S/X with 30% GM. What say you.
Again, capex for model 3 production will be almost nil by Q2 2018. This cash flow advantage from model 3 comes from delivering cars faster then payments are due. Certainly this has some diminishing returns as at some point you gotta pay the bills, but the benefits are massive during the vertical party of the ramp where Tesla will be able to use the cash from last months delivers on current expenses as next month they will deliver 20% more cars and thus more free flow. Almost like a constant, interest free and growing payday loan. This levels off when Tesla hits 10k/W for a couple of months, but by then, it won't matter.
The either flat assumption was that non model 3 negative cash flow in Q2 would more inline with what it is today even though Deepak said the bulk of cap ex for model 3 would have been paid before then. FUDsters like to push the perception that capex from model 3 continues forever and every car sold is at a loss because if that. Certainly Tesla will want to invest in Y and pickup as well as semi and roadster, but that won't kick in until model 3 is at 10k per week and they are looking to duplicate those lines for Y.
Now I'm not an accountant, but I can do basic math and AJ seems to be in point with guys assessment of 1.2B in free cash flow generated in Q2 with 24k model 3s, when you factor in 2.5B revs from S/X with 30% GM. What say you.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
If so, I hope Tesla partners with Pete's Coffee or some smaller outfit. Starbucks is too McDonaldsy.
Not only is it cooler but Tesla would have more leverage. Starbucks sales at Tesla locations would never be much more than a blip on Starbucks income statement.
But, 'Rob', as the number of Teslas on the road goes up those 'same store sales' yoy would be great to report at ER time. (even if it did not help their bottom line much)
**But I do agree with your overall assessment **
Some Sonny's BBQ in FLorida are getting superchargers............But, 'Rob', as the number of Teslas on the road goes up those 'same store sales' yoy would be great to report at ER time. (even if it did not help their bottom line much)
The deal that would be cool would be Starbucks is going to install urban superchargers at it's existing stores. Although, I think this would work better for restaurant's and grocery stores, where customers already spend more like a half hour there, than Starbucks, where they want to get people in and out.
Interesting interview with Galileo Russell from Hyper Change TV. Followed by a round table discussion with an old-style value analyst. Not like our “Value Analyst”
I thought Galileo did a great job defendingTesla.
The Battle For Tesla's Market Share: Chasing The Elephant (Episode 5 Part 1) - Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha
I thought Galileo did a great job defendingTesla.
The Battle For Tesla's Market Share: Chasing The Elephant (Episode 5 Part 1) - Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
Reciprocity
Active Member
I have seen a few tweets today and someone posted on this very thread I believe that they take delivery tomorrow, so yeah. I think they are trying to clear room in that parking lot and delivery centers for thousands of more cars being produced every week. Based on recent Vin registration up to over 8k, I would expect at least 1k/week for Jan and 4k produced for 2017. I would be shocked if the first quarter of next year wasn't 20k delivered. I expect that to double every quarter until it levels off at 100k in the 4th qtr. So, 20, 40, 80, 100 = 260 for 2018. 500k total cars minimum in 2019, plus a few semi and model Ys. Let the games begin.
Reciprocity
Active Member
No - I am taking delivery of my model 3 at the Marina Del Rey delivery center tomorrow
surfside
Awesome, let us know how many people are their taking delivery and asked the delivery guys and gals if they are working 24x7 delivering.
Attn @Todd Burch
dmckinstry
Model X 2019
Sparky
Member
I thought so too but now I'm expecting less than 1400 M3s delivered Q4. As I reported in another thread, I was in the first group of non-employees to configure, 5 weeks ago. I've yet to receive a VIN nor any indication that delivery is imminent. Seems like bottlenecks are still being worked on.
I have twice contacted Tesla. Only once have they gotten back and politely stated that without a VIN they can't say anything about delivery. I know they want to get my car to me this quarter so I can only assume they're still trying to get the machine to run.
If the tales are true of suppliers being requested to hit the 5k per week number, Q2 could be 60k .
If the tales are true of needing extra equipment to get from 5k to 10k per week, it may be more of a ramp step ramp increase. Depending which Q that gets installed, Q3 could be 60k again, or Q4 could be 120k.
Interesting times....
Reciprocity
Active Member
Interesting interview with Galileo Russell from Hyper Change TV. Followed by a round table discussion with an old-style value analyst. Not like our “Value Analyst”
I thought Galileo did a great job defendingTesla.
The Battle For Tesla's Market Share: Chasing The Elephant (Episode 5 Part 1) - Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha
Galileo is pretty good, but he sometimes gets so excited they he glosses over some of his best points and just assumed people get it and they clearly don't. But, yeah I like the guy. High energy, sharp, very good communicator. Just wish he would slow down a bit and really drive his best stuff home like a dagger to the heart.
The best is when the guy said Elon sets weak goals and Tesla never beers their goals, then Galileo runs down several places where Tesla dominated initial estates and timelines. People seem to forget that gigafactory and model 3 where pulled forward 18 months when the original Target was seen as aggressive. So what is tesla is behind 3 months on production targets for model 3, as this means there are actually still 15 months ahead of schedule.
I also hate the use of the term cash burn. It's meaningless and deceptive in nature. No Tesla bull should ever use it. Cash burn is advertising for products you don't even know that people want. Building factories to build cars that you have 500,000 reservations for is a capital investment. It's actually converting cash to a physical asset. Where as advertising, for example, has no direct measurable benefit and no balance sheet entry as an asset.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
I get the impression that delivery is the current bottleneck. It’s just surprising to still be seeing VINs in the 1000s get scheduled for delivery when we pretty much know they’ve built more than 3000 cars. If delivery were humming along they’d have those 1xxx VINs delivered by now.
I was thinking just the opposite. The Model 3's "Production, Ordering & Delivery" seems to have a good number of initial delivery impressions along with similiar posts on Reddit.
Marina del Rey Delivery Center -- Experience and Impressions
Model 3 Delivery and First Impressions
First Day -- Quick Take
Model 3 some observations from new owner • r/teslamotors
This caught my eye
"There were several trucks that drove up in the hour we were there, all loaded with Model 3. After walk through they roll up another door on the other side of the room and your able to drive the car out yourself and your on your way.
Also good to see owners on the east coast getting invites.
East Coast timing
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