LargeHamCollider
Battery cells != scalable
The IAC presentation was spectacular, Elon at his best:
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erthquake
Active Member
I can see now why the Semi reveal was pushed back a month. This alone merits the higher priority, not to mention the battery party tonight.
everman
Member
Is the battery party going to have a stream too? I need to know if I need to set my alarm for 3am my time.
Gerardf
Active Member
No, up from 287 to 290.
Same as aftermarket rise in US$
Börse Frankfurt (Frankfurt Stock Exchange): Stock market quotes, charts and news
Note that is on a 'volume' of 113 shares
erthquake
Active Member
What's the ticker symbol on that? I usually use Bloomberg's Frankfurt chart.
TL0:Xetra Stock Quote - Tesla Inc
But I don't think it opens until midnight PDT.
Edit: Ah, I see your link now. Thanks.
Mike Smith
Active Member
racer26
Active Member
Because the vins we see being delivered are a)sparse and b)after the car has spent time in transit.
Unlike with S/X where there is enough data on orders in process from fans on vin tracker pages, 3 doesn't have that yet.
Thus, the cars we see delivered today were produced 1-3 weeks ago, making the German tank problem solution lag actual production by a substantial amount, especially as it enters the exponential part of the ramp.
a) really not that sparse. I have 16 sightings of VINS 1 through 30, independent from the reveal event. All but one in August (mostly early August too). That suggests that from cars that are out there, there is a roughly 50% chance that the public gets a notification after one month. I have 22 observations in the range 100-200 again all but 3 in early September. That would suggest there is 20% chance that the public sights a VIN after at most two weeks. Despite these percentages either way we have zero observations between 50 and 99. The chance of that happening is 0,002 %(!) or less. So I feel very confident in saying that no cars between 50 and 99 have been released to the public (yet?). That statistical conclusion is partially confirmed by the one observation we have : 53 was the NZ test car. But it used a different VIN format anyway so who knows.
We know the 300 range is special (they appeared even before the delivery event). So let's focus on our observations before we saw 454 and before 300. 45 observations with a max of 263 over a range of 213 possibles (we concluded earlier that 50-99 is not released to the public) is again roughly inline with that 20% observation rate. Not that sparse therefore. Statistically our sigma (measure of how much distance there is to the calculated maximum and real maximum) is now under 5. There is nothing sparse about that.
Now we suddenly get to 454. How does that change our sigma? Depends on how far we extend the 'special' 300 range. Let's take the most conservative assumption and they were reserved to 330 only. Our sigma widens to only 8. Still indicates that nothing sparse is going on. Also not contrary to our earlier calculation with a sigma of just 5 since there is an obvious positive skew (bias towards too low estimates) since the maximum observed number is the absolute minimum and there is no absolute maximum.
b) Most cars are delivered at the factory. Only a few were spotted in Austin and transit took just a few days for those. Therefore average transit at most delays our observations by a few days (not 1-3 weeks). Note : I consider a car produced only after passing QC. It's plausible that manufacturing is ahead by a lot more but many car still waiting for QC. I presume it must be quite extensive for early production runs.
The following is more speculative but still based on my list of VINs and first date of observation.
1-49 cars build before the delivery event in July
50-99 not used or purely internal
100-299 cars build on the pilot line most of them delivered to employees and friends in August and early September
300-330 validation cars, eventually sold if no longer relevant for validation purposes already build (?)
331-399 reserved for further validation models or not used
400+ cars currently being build and delivered unsure if final or pilot line
Words of HABIT
Active Member
I stand corrected, some crazy talk of my own. Please disregard my last post.
Around the 3:15 mark, hard to make you, but I believe Elon states the project is around the 50MW level 2 months in. I think he's saying 50MW and not MWh but maybe some native speaker can chime in here. Around the 4:10 mark he says it's going to be done in some 2 more months.
I'm pretty sure it's a record month for Norway... Don't see the full history on the site, but I think it's the case.
Tesla Registration Stats
Other points:
- shame that the SA energy project isn't complete, this will give something for the shorts to twist
- Space X, wow, just wow!
Tesla Registration Stats
Other points:
- shame that the SA energy project isn't complete, this will give something for the shorts to twist
- Space X, wow, just wow!
racer26
Active Member
For those still chowing down on the popcorn, my method for tracking Model 3 production is still showing the same number it was. We shall see if it updates sometime later today. I discovered it around 2:30pm yesterday.
I will be very surprised if there will be more than 300-400 M3s delivered. I will be happy to be wrong, but if the final assembly line started to operate on 9/26, we really should not expect more.
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