2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[Navin]

I view end of today as sort of a lights on moment for the stock. Lots of thoughts about stock manipulation,

I'm thinking 347.50-350. R1 is 343.74, R2 is 346.97. Currently trying to break through R1, and if that happens, reaching R2 is not unlikely.

ZD did u catch how tsla was skating on s1 yesterday. That’s where I made my entry into weeklies

 

[zdriver]

I was just about to ask that. My opinion is after the close of business on Monday.

Prepare for shorts piling back in then - we all know delay = bad numbers.

If numbers are really good, I'd love to see them wait until Tuesday morning. Let all the FUD stories start circulating, then wham.

ZD did u catch how tsla was skating on s1 yesterday. That’s where I made my entry into weeklies

Yeah, I rolled a couple J19's to Nov 360c late yesterday when it bounced just a bit above s1. I added some weeklies earlier today, but still apprehensive from being burnt so many other times when everything looked really positive but turned out not.

Good term, skating.

 

[neroden]

Why?

First and most importantly, the production rate was non-constant; it was accelerating. (This alone changes the formula dramatically.)

Secondly, the deliveries were geographically biased -- not evenly distributed. Did you notice that (not counting reveal event cars -- see below) got almost as many VIN sightings outside California as inside? That was suspicious given that we knew California distribution was happening first. Our VIN sightings were primarily coming from non-employees who were employee relatives, which is a biased subsample.

Third, we had heavy sightings of the early-VIN cars used for testing, and then heavy sightings of early-VIN cars which were officially revealed at the reveal event. Followed by sparse of sightings of "random employee" cars... who had probably been told to keep quiet. It honestly felt like Tesla was telling the employees "Yeah, these cars have been seen, don't worry about them, but don't show your car off yet".

In short, our sample was heavily biased in a number of ways.

 

[D-egg-O]

It's that time again! Time for Pop or Dip! Who's ready to play?

 

[FredTMC]

Yes, the people talking to ghosts

Yeah, I don't see anything. Blind to me... ROFL

 

[FredTMC]

Does anyone think the announcement of number of cars delivered will come on Sunday or on Monday? the last day of the month is 9/30th, which is tomorrow. So Sunday night announcement doesn't seem likely...

You never know which day. But likely by Oct 4th at the latest.

 

[MartinAustin]

Call me a traitor but I actually had unloaded a lot of my TSLA in order to buy ROKU. As you can imagine I'm pretty happy about that. My short term plan is to get back into TSLA after the fall that will follow the deliveries announcement. (I think the stock has fallen quite a few times after deliveries announcements)

I guess I will be reticent to do this if ROKU keeps on rocketing up, but, I remember well what happened to NTNX, SNAP and FB so I am not under any illusions about ROKU.

I just wish I had sold TSLA closer to $387 :|

But - do any of us think that the "steam has already been sufficiently vented" from TSLA (from $389 to $340), so that if there is a fall after the announcement, it will be dampened?

I know we repeatedly keep hearing "all eyes on Model 3," "it's all about Model 3 deliveries" etc. etc. - but I'm expecting S+X deliveries to be robust, and certainly not a burden for the full-year guidance. Ordinarily that would be a very nice announcement.

 

[EinSV]

Hi Bob,

What impact do you think that the semi reveal will have on the TSLA SP?

Negative.

@jhm, care to elaborate?

 

[ValueAnalyst]

It's that time again! Time for Pop or Dip! Who's ready to play?

View attachment 250759

Dip, but not an advice.

 

[D-egg-O]

Dip, but not an advice.

You can't "call it" after the fact! That's not how the game works.

BTW, I've been seeing some FUD published on how Elon spends too much of his time with SpaceX and doesn't focus enough on Tesla.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

You can't "call it" after the fact! That's not how the game works.

BTW, I've been seeing some FUD published on how Elon spends too much of his time with SpaceX and doesn't focus enough on Tesla.

Ha! Let's start the timer from my post time then: $342.50

I've been sick so haven't published much... sorry!

 

[neroden]

I think the theory that most traders are waiting for deliveries announcements seems quite likely. Expect TSLA to close near max pain today.


... on the other hand, let's suppose that like most of us, all the traders already know that the Q3 numbers are irrelevant and everyone's waiting for Q1 numbers. What would market behavior be like in that case?

 

[Navin]

Truck | Tesla

Looks like it’s official vs being tentative. Strong

 

[austinEV]

Call me a traitor but I actually had unloaded a lot of my TSLA in order to buy ROKU. As you can imagine I'm pretty happy about that. My short term plan is to get back into TSLA after the fall that will follow the deliveries announcement. (I think the stock has fallen quite a few times after deliveries announcements)

I guess I will be reticent to do this if ROKU keeps on rocketing up, but, I remember well what happened to NTNX, SNAP and FB so I am not under any illusions about ROKU.

I just wish I had sold TSLA closer to $387 :|

But - do any of us think that the "steam has already been sufficiently vented" from TSLA (from $389 to $340), so that if there is a fall after the announcement, it will be dampened?

I know we repeatedly keep hearing "all eyes on Model 3," "it's all about Model 3 deliveries" etc. etc. - but I'm expecting S+X deliveries to be robust, and certainly not a burden for the full-year guidance. Ordinarily that would be a very nice announcement.

Yeah, a poor report is priced in IMO. Basically everyone was VIN counting and no miracle M3 september is in the cards so we went from euphoria to more or less normal. We are right were we were for most of Aug and early Sept. Now I think just about any report on Mon/Tue will either be positive on its own merits or lift off the cap. After all, we hit ATH when the 1500 fantasy was alive. In Oct it will be all but certain. Once the event risk is out of the way I think we lift off.

IF's
IF the production is worked out and the automated lines start churning out M3's in a week or two, we will have the exact condition that got us to ATH.
IF The S/X numbers are not sequentially down, representing an existential crisis (Can they survive the cannibalization? ) Then the fear of Q3 will be lifted.

Since I think that the M3 line is basically ok +/- a few weeks and the S/X deliveries will be solid, this is a local bottom. IMO. Not an advice.

 

[koolkool]

Peak of False Hope ---> Trough of Despair

Right on schedule

 

[Bobbyducati]

picked up 15x hail mary calls earlier today for next friday, hoping for favorable numbers and a decent jump. more a gamble than anything, but we'll see.

 

[Alketi]

Truck | Tesla

Looks like it’s official vs being tentative. Strong

Interesting. I did some playing with the pic in Photoshop.

It looks like possibly single-wheels in the back and not the more conventional double-wheels.

 

[D-egg-O]

Interesting. I did some playing with the pic in Photoshop.

It looks like possibly single-wheels in the back and not the more conventional double-wheels.

View attachment 250781

It's more common than you think.
Wide-Base Tires Gaining Popularity: Are You Ready to Make the Switch?

 

[zdriver]

Um... Oct 6 305c & 310c.

That's $3.67M in 305c, and $2.32M in 310c bought in the last hour or so. (checked charts)

 

[LargeHamCollider]

Time value on J19 600s is insane, they're the same price they were when last I bought them, but the stock was at 353 at that time.