2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[Off Shore]

IAC event is separate from the battery pack celebration event?

I believe so. I posted information for the wrong event.

 

[bdy0627]

Thinking about buying very heavy either tomorrow or next week.

Depending upon the delivery numbers, you may be getting a good deal tomorrow or next week.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Depending upon the delivery numbers, you may be getting a good deal tomorrow or next week.

I repeat: I don't think the SP has much to do with short-term "news" such as delivery numbers...

$340 is already an amazing deal, and I would buy it even if I was the only person who never saw the 3Q delivery numbers.

My issue is that I'm very conservative when it comes to leverage... I learned my lesson the hard way a few years ago.

Having said that, I have a price in mind for 4Q17 at which point I would drastically increase leverage, but not there yet.

 

[bdy0627]

My thinking is 9*26 is the date and the car is the first car to come slowly thru the completed assembly line without any issues or stops. At this point they can increase the speed to say one car every 1 to 2 minutes.... or around 200 to 400 cars a day. That means depending on other problems discovered during this faster run rate there will be three days (if they are not working Saturday) to crank out cars at a pretty good pace compared to previous.

I don't want to get anyone's hopes up but that could mean a pretty good chance of coming close to the 1500 car expectation.

Think about it from the workers point of view. What car would be so important to take a picture of?
I would think the first one off a fully functioning line.

Maybe it's suggesting now is the time to buy lots of LEAPs so that when the stock goes up 9x, your investment will actually go up 26x?

 

[bdy0627]

I repeat: I don't think the SP has much to do with short-term "news" such as delivery numbers...

$340 is already an amazing deal, and I would buy it even if I was the only person who never saw the 3Q delivery numbers.

My issue is that I'm very conservative when it comes to leverage... I learned my lesson the hard way a few years ago.

Having said that, I have a price in mind for 4Q17 at which point I would drastically increase leverage, but not there yet.

I agree that the stock is an excellent long term deal at the current price. I think @kenliles approach of breaking up the add over several days is a good way to approach it. The stock jumps around so much that it can be frustrating to do it all at once.

 

[D-egg-O]

Also, I know we've been discussing various outcomes from the deliveries next week. This is also a potential. The numbers could be bad and stock still goes up. Why? Relief in just knowing might be enough. "That doesn't make sense!" I hear you say. The market doesn't always make sense.

The drop in SP is very very out of the norm the past 8 days. I have more confidence the above will come true. Think of it from a psychological point of view. There is relief in knowing bad news vs. not knowing (i.e. missing person). I'm not betting the farm with any short term trades/bets, but I did purchase some more 2019 LEAPs.

Edit: I know beyond any doubt that if the delivery numbers are "bad," Tesla will have an explanation as to why and how they have already addressed the issue. This will act a consolation for the bad news. Also, it's Elon's MO. He expects this from his people.

 

[Navin]

 

[elasalle]

Uh... 5ish?

My theory produces an exact number (I used well over 1000 as obfuscation), and it does not currently end in a 5 or 0 which makes me believe its not some sort of pre-production listing of a round number of units.

The source of the data is unquestionable. What's questionable is if the data is as connected to production as I hope it is. I'm hoping to monitor the data over the next few days to see how it changes. The 3Q deliveries report next week will provide the best insight into the accuracy of this method. This method can also be used for S/X.

thanks in advance... If your method can be used for S/X .. could you provide your numbers for S/X ... maybe someone on this forum could cross check with their quarterly estimates?? (could use that ..maybe .. as cross-validation..?)

 

[ValueAnalyst]

My thinking is 9*26 is the date and the car is the first car to come slowly thru the completed assembly line without any issues or stops. At this point they can increase the speed to say one car every 1 to 2 minutes.... or around 200 to 400 cars a day. That means depending on other problems discovered during this faster run rate there will be three days (if they are not working Saturday) to crank out cars at a pretty good pace compared to previous.

I don't want to get anyone's hopes up but that could mean a pretty good chance of coming close to the 1500 car expectation.

Think about it from the workers point of view. What car would be so important to take a picture of?
I would think the first one off a fully functioning line.

Could you please share enough of your background and your confidence level regarding this post?

 

[Doit]

I took a gander at a crystal ball, here's what I saw:

Since week of Dec. 19th, 2016, SP approached weekly EMA(26) twice and both bounced back nicely.

As of close of today, SP is almost there: Low of the week is 335.40, EMA(26) is 330.62. So, it could bottom out either tomorrow or next week.

Of course, it's most likely I looked at the wrong ball - usually.

 

[Words of HABIT]

200-400 M3/day at this stage today is crazy talk. At 20 work days per month this equates to 4000-8000 M3/month. Elon's number which is already super aggressive is 5000 M3/month produced by the end of December. Dreaming is nice, but lets keep our minds out of the clouds and on the road, shall we. After all, this isn't the SpaceX thread.
FWIW My guesstimate is 1001 M3 sold for 3Q F'17 and 5005 M3 sold for 2H F'17 (based solely on my speculation). Only time will tell.

 

[BornToFly]

200-400 M3/day at this stage today is crazy talk. At 20 work days per month this equates to 4000-8000 M3/month. Elon's number which is already super aggressive is 5000 M3/month produced by the end of December. Dreaming is nice, but lets keep our minds out of the clouds and on the road, shall we. After all, this isn't the SpaceX thread.
FWIW My guesstimate is 1001 M3 sold for 3Q F'17 and 5005 M3 sold for 2H F'17 (based solely on my speculation). Only time will tell.

Elon said 5,000/week, not /month, by the end of December.

 

[LoL Rick]

Given that Fremont has space problems .. if they were more than 500 M3 .. where could they be stashed ..?
Anyone know if those new buildings that were reported .. are already complete ...?

Gut feel is tide will change from tomorrow ...(even Shorts will close and take some profits .. before the weekend ... binary outcome of quarterly numbers to hard to ignore)

Personally sold some April 18 puts in 330 range(OK to get it assigned) ..
but should not have made any lotto plays in past 2 days ... live & learn

I saw the initial report on the new buildings when everyone wondered what they were. If there was followup coverage, I missed it. So I asked about their purpose today and was told that they are "automated parts warehouses." Sorry - didn't think to ask if they were complete and probably wouldn't have gotten a satisfactory answer anyway.

 

[racer26]

thanks in advance... If your method can be used for S/X .. could you provide your numbers for S/X ... maybe someone on this forum could cross check with their quarterly estimates?? (could use that ..maybe .. as cross-validation..?)

It's much more difficult to come up with a quarterly number with this method for S/X without monitoring it on a daily basis. It's easy for Model 3 because I know that all Model 3s were produced this quarter.

 

[racer26]

In other news supporting more Model 3s than have been apparent thus far: Instagram post by Colin Dougherty • Sep 28, 2017 at 3:38pm UTC seems to be a picture of #454

 

[neroden]

I knew our sample of the VIN numbers was too skewed to use the "German tank problem" solution.

 

[Mkorpal]

I saw the initial report on the new buildings when everyone wondered what they were. If there was followup coverage, I missed it. So I asked about their purpose today and was told that they are "automated parts warehouses." Sorry - didn't think to ask if they were complete and probably wouldn't have gotten a satisfactory answer anyway.

From that drone footage a week or two ago, that building is at least fully enclosed now.

Tesla also owns some pretty big warehouses in the area that could be used to park a big number of cars. The question, if that is the case, would be why park them instead of sell them. I'd doubt it's the software update, since they seem content to sell cars without FM radio, and it's an easy remote fix. Perhaps it's a small physical issue with a part that needs to be replaced. Small enough they can keep building, store, and fix in the next few weeks. If that is the case, you could see a massive amount hit the road soon.

 

[Mike Smith]

From that drone footage a week or two ago, that building is at least fully enclosed now.

Tesla also owns some pretty big warehouses in the area that could be used to park a big number of cars. The question, if that is the case, would be why park them instead of sell them. I'd doubt it's the software update, since they seem content to sell cars without FM radio, and it's an easy remote fix. Perhaps it's a small physical issue with a part that needs to be replaced. Small enough they can keep building, store, and fix in the next few weeks. If that is the case, you could see a massive amount hit the road soon.

I would assume they're doing extensive testing on all the early cars before deliverig them to determine any potential flaws in the manufacturing process.

 

[dmckinstry]

Yeah, but look at that panel gap

The reason for the gap is that it means the 10th Model 3 made that day is only 76% done.

 

[Doit]

I doubt it will be 28th. Elon has a talk to finish by 5pm Sep. 29 Adelaide, South Australia time, which is 12:30am PST, Sep. 29th, according to the schedule of www.iac2017.org. Unless Elon rides a rocket from somewhere in CA to Adelaide or does the reveal on 8am instead of his favorite 8pm or later on 28th, he's not going to make it in time for his IAC talk.

This turns out what Elon actually wants to do next, in the not so far future.