2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[dandurston]

So have we heard of a single fresh delivered Model 3 VIN in the last week or so? Seems to have gone very quiet.

They're probably taking 1-2 weeks off production to tune the line, then they'll fire it up mid month and crank a nice batch. That's what it seemed like was happening with the X launch.

 

[TrendTrader007]

I personally bought the sucker at $202
230
240
250
260
290
300
336
347
385
377
355 etc etc
I got my full position now

 

[everman]

Those who r waiting for a dip to buy TSLA at $310 will end up buying it at at $400+
Or not at all

I’m in as much as I can, but I’m looking to convert some core shares in my IRA into ITM LEAPs at a 3:1 ratio, targeting a delta of ~ 0.80.

Question TT: how do you think about when the right time is to make a move like that, near the upper band, lower band or it doesn’t matter, and why?

 

[Navin]

Bull flag is a thing of beauty. Expect some paid analyst to post a downgrade as we get to 360 to try to invalidate

 

[ValueAnalyst]

The nominal production capacity is 2500 MX/MS per week. So 48 x 2500 =120K MX/MS units, actually.

Yes, and Elon had used the word "conservatively" when indicating 2,500 per week during the 2Q14 earnings call:

"In the case of new SX body line, which is a line that is designed to be capable of 2,500 units a week, maybe more than that, conservatively at 2,500 units a week, at a lower cost point, we should be able to do that in parallel."

Note that this comment was made in August of 2014, and demand for both Model S and Model X has proven strong since then, so Tesla may already have been thinking about ways to increase capacity.

 

[Todd Burch]

I personally bought the sucker at $202
230
240
250
260
290
300
336
347
385
377
355 etc etc
I got my full position now

Every few days you tell us you're not getting any more, then you go and get more...

 

[Navin]

This is the guy who is starting a class action lawsuit against tesla

Kevin Chan: Rosen Law

If you look at his other cases - he literally is trolling almost every company in the news these days. This is nonsense in its finest form

 

[AlMc]

Those who r waiting for a dip to buy TSLA at $310 will end up buying it at at $400+
Or not at all

Based on your future PT predictions does it really matter if one buys at $310, $370, or even $450?

 

[EnzoXYZ]

Every few days you tell us you're not getting any more, then you go and get more...

That's what you do with an endless pile of cash!

 

[schonelucht]

The nominal production capacity is 2500 MX/MS per week. So 48 x 2500 =120K MX/MS units, actually.

Tesla's demand constrained on the S and X.

 

[Causalien]

Don't effing mess with Musk, Tesla, or unicorns...
View attachment 253238

That's my TSLA technical chart.

 

[mongo]

Based on your future PT predictions does it really matter if one buys at $310, $370, or even $450?

Yes! If future price is $1k, every extra share you can eek out by purchasing at a lower price is an extra 1k in your future pocket. 5% savings now is a 5% gain in the future. (Or, alluding to the 3 ramp, a few month shift in profit)

300 vs 450 is 50% more shares for the same cost and 50% more future value. (Present value too, when it gets to 450)

Ok, if you have a ludicrous number of shares, say 65.3 x Tt007_muliplier, it doesn't matter (similar to nuclear weapons and MAD), but for we mere mortals, it does.

 

[AlMc]

Yes! If future price is $1k, every extra share you can eek out by purchasing at a lower price is an extra 1k in your future pocket. 5% savings now is a 5% gain in the future. (Or, alluding to the 3 ramp, a few month shift in profit)

300 vs 450 is 50% more shares for the same cost and 50% more future value. (Present value too, when it gets to 450)

Ok, if you have a ludicrous number of shares, say 65.3 x Tt007_muliplier, it doesn't matter (similar to nuclear weapons and MAD), but for we mere mortals, it does.

Exactly my point. *IF* you have FU amount of $ do you really care about 300vs450 when your PT is $2k+

 

[jbcarioca]

Y
Ok, if you have a ludicrous number of shares, say 65.3 x Tt007_muliplier, it doesn't matter (similar to nuclear weapons and MAD), but for we mere mortals, it does.

I only have an Insane number but purchase price definitely is relevant to me. OTOH, we all know that market timing is exceedingly difficult and usually futile. I have historically been lucky, mostly, but I am keenly aware that is IS luck, not skill, because I have some well remembered duds in my history. Every serious investor I know has had duds. Quite a few try hard to deny they've ever had a loss.

 

[MitchJi]

Correct, which is why I did not list the "series of strike prices."

I don't really want to discuss the details of my investment; I think it's unnecessary, and I see no benefit from it.

I just wanted to clarify my confidence in Tesla's future, and my investment only directionally, in case anyone had any doubts.

Congratulations!

Welcome to the huge profits club! A smart and lucrative decision!

It's not really an investment, it's more like shooting fish in a barrel!

It was not my intention to post a universal recommendation to purchase options. Please be careful if you consider buying options.

This PDF is a little out of date but I think that it will be helpful:
J19LEAPS-BuyInJan2017.pdf

 

[racer26]

This is the guy who is starting a class action lawsuit against tesla

Kevin Chan: Rosen Law

If you look at his other cases - he literally is trolling almost every company in the news these days. This is nonsense in its finest form

They're all materially the same case.

<Company> said X when making forward looking statements. This was later found to be untrue when the dust settled. This mislead and therefore damaged investors.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Tesla's demand constrained on the S and X.

Yes, it currently is.

At about 30% market share.

 

[TradingInvest]

Yes! If future price is $1k, every extra share you can eek out by purchasing at a lower price is an extra 1k in your future pocket. 5% savings now is a 5% gain in the future. (Or, alluding to the 3 ramp, a few month shift in profit)

300 vs 450 is 50% more shares for the same cost and 50% more future value. (Present value too, when it gets to 450)

Ok, if you have a ludicrous number of shares, say 65.3 x Tt007_muliplier, it doesn't matter (similar to nuclear weapons and MAD), but for we mere mortals, it does.

Agreed. If the stock goes from $200 to $8000, $1M will turn into 40M, wait and get in at $400, you will only have $20M. It's a big difference.

Also, those who got in early can sit through fluctuations. Those who bought late are more likely to be shaken out.

I know a guy who got all in around $20 now expecting $1000. Never sold a share. He only posted once at the time he got all in. That's the approach everyone should learn.

 

[mongo]

Exactly my point. *IF* you have FU amount of $ do you really care about 300vs450 when your PT is $2k+

Nah, if I had that, I'd be buying a P100D and flying wk out to help put it in my truck.

Is it 2k yet?

 

[LoveTSLA]

This thing is flying again....