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2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

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Wish we could always ask the same person to get the right answer :)

At MIT in the fifties in addition to Murphy's Law of Experimentation which is well known, we were taught his law of analysis too: the right answer, divided by the wrong answer, and that multiplied by the wrong answer gives you the right answer. Just trying to be helpful.
 
At MIT in the fifties in addition to Murphy's Law of Experimentation which is well known, we were taught his law of analysis too: the right answer, divided by the wrong answer, and that multiplied by the wrong answer gives you the right answer. Just trying to be helpful.
Looks suspiciously like algebracadabra! ;)
 
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At MIT in the fifties in addition to Murphy's Law of Experimentation which is well known, we were taught his law of analysis too: the right answer, divided by the wrong answer, and that multiplied by the wrong answer gives you the right answer. Just trying to be helpful.
Unless the wrong answer is equal to 0... Wich would imply that Murphy can explain why, sometimes, tsla bears are successfull by making a good answer disapearing into non-existent and then resulting in 0.

It can also be used to respond to the question of how much model 3 are produced this week regarding tsla long term. In that case, whatever wrong answer is equal to 1 ; implying that the good answer is equal to wrong answer and thus equal : does not matter.
 
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Unless the wrong answer is equal to 0... Wich would imply that Murphy can explain why, sometimes, tsla bears are successfull by making a good answer disapearing into non-existent and then resulting in 0.

It can also be used to respond to the question of how much model 3 are produced this week regarding tsla long term. In that case, whatever wrong answer is equal to 1 ; implying that the good answer is equal to wrong answer and thus equal : does not matter.

My head hurts.
 
I’m in as much as I can, but I’m looking to convert some core shares in my IRA into ITM LEAPs at a 3:1 ratio, targeting a delta of ~ 0.80.

Question TT: how do you think about when the right time is to make a move like that, near the upper band, lower band or it doesn’t matter, and why?
okay here is the deal Everman
i think it might be best to keep the total call option position below a certain % of your portfolio and devote the significant portion to common. in my case the ratio of common to calls is approximately 15 to 1 or less than 6.25% of my TSLA position is in Leaps.
now this may change as the market value of my calls fluctuates. however, i do NOT think it would be wise for me to suggest loading up on Leaps in an IRA. see, it all boils down to percentages. now, if i had a total portfolio of $100K or less than i would be an aggressive buyer of TSLA leaps with maybe even 50% to 75% or even 100 % of my portfolio in TSLA leaps in a taxable account. if i had a portfolio of upto $1 then i would limit my TSLA calls to no more than 30% of my portfolio. again in a taxable account but that is just me and this is in no way any suggestion or recommendation or an advice.
having said that this is a golden time to buy TSLA leaps. personally, i have not bought a single LEAP for well over 6 months now. all i am doing is buying common like crazy.
i think you got at least a $1 position in TSLA if not more so my best guess is that you're all set to take it upto anywhere from $7 to $10 or even $17 to $20 over the next 5 to 10 years if you do nothing but simply hold all your common stock and not worry about LEAPs. however, if you want more in life than that and you want an adrenaline rush then go for it and switch from common to calls as you are proposing to do. Personally, i would not do it, at least not in an IRA unless i had at least $2 or more worth of common sitting in a Roth or something. however, i am not in the business of giving advice and i wanna make it crystal clear that this is definitely NOT an advice. Don't blame me if you fail to switch your shares into LEAPS and this MF takes off to the moon ( as i fully suspect it will) and you miss out on huge profits. on the other hand, do not blame me if you DO convert from common to LEAPS and Elon Musk decides that EVs are not so cool anymore and he becomes CEO of GM or F instead to produce more ICE and the sucker tanks to $310 or below (as many naive longs on this board hope) and your LEAPS go into non tax deductible deep losses.
i'll post my personal thoughts on SP especially for you on the next few posts
NONE OF THIS IS AN ADVICE in any way shape or form nor should it be construed as one
(i am the guy who initially started writing "not an advice" on my posts)
 
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This chart states to me that this right here right now is the golden time to load up on common or calls or whatever poison of your choice
Volatility is relatively low and I wanna be a buyer right here before this MF explodes to the upside
Could happen anytime
This is the rare calm before the storm
I could be wrong and it could all go down in flames
But if I were a betting man then I would be betting with all I got on an upside breakout and leveraged to the hilt
NOT an advice
 
All in on either Jan18 or April2018 calls? January might be overkill but you are so confident...
30% January 2018 and 70% January 2019
Almost all of them are in the money already and highly profitable or OTM but already doubled or tripled
The only call in loss is January 2018 $500 which is such a minor position that it's not even worth mentioning but I do mention it because I expect it too to move up very nicely in short order
I originally plunked $0.375 in all my calls and it's now well over $1 and was well over $1.4 back in June
I suspect it'll go much much higher from here
That's why I'm buying common like crazy because once I liquidate my calls almost all with long term capital gains I'll automatically convert it all to common by reducing my huge margin fractionally
 
I don't believe in delta gamma or theta or vega or any fancy options stuff
I buy my calls straight
All or none
I have no idea about any sophisticated financial strategies
My strategy is extremely simple
Find a winning stock
Load up on common and calls like there is no tomorrow
Keep the ratio of common to calls as high as possible
Shoot for the stars
Stay super leveraged while the going is good
Liquidate when it's time to get the hell outta dodge
Most traders/ investors lose sight of the big picture and get seduced by intricate/complicated/ esoteric financial sophistry which is all merely a distraction And a huge mistake
All that really matters in the stock market are 3 things:
The right stock
Timing
Directional betting on the underlying security and the market
If you get these three right then you're golden
Rest is conversation
 
30% January 2018 and 70% January 2019
Almost all of them are in the money already and highly profitable or OTM but already doubled or tripled
The only call in loss is January 2018 $500 which is such a minor position that it's not even worth mentioning but I do mention it because I expect it too to move up very nicely in short order
I originally plunked $0.375 in all my calls and it's now well over $1 and was well over $1.4 back in June
I suspect it'll go much much higher from here
That's why I'm buying common like crazy because once I liquidate my calls almost all with long term capital gains I'll automatically convert it all to common by reducing my huge margin fractionally
How were you not tempted to sell the Jan18 500Cs during the last rise to 380? Forget my last avatar recommendation. I have a new one for you. It's simple, just like your investment strategy. :cool:
balls_of_steel.jpg
 
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