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2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

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I’m in as much as I can, but I’m looking to convert some core shares in my IRA into ITM LEAPs at a 3:1 ratio, targeting a delta of ~ 0.80.

Question TT: how do you think about when the right time is to make a move like that, near the upper band, lower band or it doesn’t matter, and why?
You want to do the conversion at the lowest price you can get, because you will be increasing your leverage on the way back up by a factor of three. Of course this means trying to time the market, so it may be folly; just do the conversion whenever.

(Note: I ignore TT07, have no idea whether he answered your direct question or not.)
 
I have no idea why anyone with the means in CA would purchase a BMW/Mercedes/Panamera instead of an S/X.
Good point! I live in the older Suberbistan sector of California. Retired Suberbistanis (those are the ones with the means) are very familiar with traditional symbols of affluence like bmw/mbz/porch/lexus/corvette, but many are only vaguely familiar with or never heard of TESLA despite the increasing number on the roads. They seem to be committed to oil energy stocks and faux auto elegance. They are too committed to the familiar and traditional thinking. They complain about their increasing utility costs and I smugly point to the PV panels on my roof and say, "what utility costs?" They will soon learn that the train has left and they were late to the station.
 
For those who incorporate sentiment analysis into their investment process, I note that the general tone of Seeking Alpha articles have moved slightly from heavily negative towards a more balanced point in the last week. Some of the perma-bears are now saying "don't short TSLA" etc...

Not sure what this exactly means, but it's a data point nonetheless.

Edit: comments are still very negative...
 
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i had noticed this too.

could be because short interest is down a lot (27m shares is same level as 6/30, where it had stretched up to near 30m shares since then).

bears covered aggressively during the swoon from 9/15-9/30. wonder how far the price would have dropped without their supporting it.

http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/tsla/short-interest


For those who incorporate sentiment analysis into their investment process, I note that the general tone of Seeking Alpha articles have moved slightly from heavily negative towards a more balanced point in the last week. Some of the perma-bears are now saying "don't short TSLA" etc...

Not sure what this exactly means, but it's a data point nonetheless.

Edit: comments are still very negative...
 
i had noticed this too.

could be because short interest is down a lot (27m shares is same level as 6/30, where it had stretched up to near 30m shares since then).

bears covered aggressively during the swoon from 9/15-9/30. wonder how far the price would have dropped without their supporting it.

http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/tsla/short-interest
I was expecting short interest to go up to 33 to 35m, reasoning that the precipitous fall since 9/15 was a bear raid. Obviously, I was wrong.

It looks like some big institutional long holders do play the volatility game to make some extra bucks.
 
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I was expecting short interest to go up to 33 to 35m, reasoning that the precipitous fall since 9/15 was a bear raid. Obviously, I was wrong.

It looks like some big institutional long holders do play the volatility game to make some extra bucks.

I think it's very difficult to know who's buying/selling, until data comes out, albeit at a delay of anywhere between two weeks to months...

For example, how do you know shorts didn't pressure SP from September 18 through September 25, then cover in the following four days?

That 44,258 share trade earlier (13:07 eastern) was dark pool sourced, buying on liquidity. (if it wasn't obvious by the crazy price spike)

I was just about to tag you on this question: are you seeing a similar setup leading up to yesterday afternoon's continuous rise?
 
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I’m in as much as I can, but I’m looking to convert some core shares in my IRA into ITM LEAPs at a 3:1 ratio, targeting a delta of ~ 0.80.

Question TT: how do you think about when the right time is to make a move like that, near the upper band, lower band or it doesn’t matter, and why?
I am not a huge fan of converting shares into LEAPS. infact it is the other way around for me.
having said that this is a good time as any
i'll explain in more detail later this evening
 
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I was just about to tag you on this question: are you seeing a similar setup leading up to yesterday afternoon's continuous rise?

Not really. Yesterday's rise frankly had no "tell" ahead of it. Just... happened.

That's how it usually works - if it was predictable, I'd be driving a Tesla Roadster instead of a Z4. :cool:
 
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