Some dark pool buying just now, that's what some of that volume spike was. Also probably ran the stops on some intraday shorts...
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
- Status
Sure there is when the FUD bloggers are saying M3 are handcrafted. This maybe a series of videos or just two.
I ought to build an AI program that takes every single one of Elon's twitter posts regarding tesla, match it to keywords of you guys perspective, and build a quick little article that will shoot out to all the PR outlets to fight the FUD.
Only way to fight FUD is kill oil and ICE.
I love that Elon is tormenting shorts with the videos. Brings back memories. Keep in mind many people at tesla including Elon are shareholders that have an underdog mentality. I’d also bet on people who are on the line for the ups. The series of ambulance chasing law firms coming out is really pathetic but a good sign that the kitchen sink is being used at this point by the shorts. Technicals are also looking good. 360 takeout will cause a big pop IMO. Trade em well
After 7 years, most longs understand that FUD is just FUD.
Krugerrand
Meow
Count the strokes per minute. 10 would be on the low side, 15 would be on the high side for this kind of job.
Krugerrand
Meow
I disagreed with this statement for a of couple reasons. Idle time is money, serious money. It’s possible that your tours coincided with regular press maintenance, some other press/die issue, or shift change.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
I currently have ~20% of my TSLA investment in J19s (rest in shares), mostly at $390 strike. My logic is J19s $390 strike is price at ~$50, I can get 6X as many shares vs just buying shares. With a delta of 0.5, if TSLA PPS goes up by $10, my J19s only goes up by ~$5, but because I have 6X as many shares, I'm getting ~3X return than just owning shares. Of course this amplification also happens for the downside, but that's why I use J19s.
I don't even need the PPS to go up to $390 + the J19s price to profit. In the next 6 months or so if TSLA will go significantly above the current price range, say low to mid $400s, my J19s would have paid off handsomely. Given so many good things in the pipeline, and the volatility, I think within a 6 months window this could easily happen, even if there will also be dips due to temporary delays or FUD.
In mid 2018 if the PPS is in the low-mid $400, I can reevaluate based on the M3 production/margin, TE, semi, Y, pickup. If uncertainty remains high I can cash out the J19s and convert back into shares. If it looks like TSLA is sitting on BFR and ready to go to Mars, I'll let the J19s ride. Or I can roll the J19s into J20s to buy more time, and also re-balance to keep it to a lower % of my overall TSLA exposure.
Are you factoring in the spread or did you buy J19 mid-price and would sell mid-price? Spreads can be costly on LEAPs. Why not also sell something like J19 240 Puts also? Though, selling puts requires some level of margin against it - it's not too bad. I am only selling puts on "everything" (variety of stocks) at this time. Most close J18 and I will look further at that time. Sure, I could have bought some stock heavy and matched the results, but it is so much easier with the variety than a single issue.
Under 1 trillion dollar market cap. Tesla is a massive BUY. Then, if you're ok with a x2- x4 return over the following decade (long term), then it's still a BUY.
So, what is the per-minute rate of the presses when they are in action? Could one-shift handle all the body work for the day's 2 or more shifts? Presses in constant action are running one press per 30-seconds or better. That's faster than cars are made.
Do it too fast and the world becomes Venezuela. It will take decades to unwind oil. But what's wrong with that?
I had the opposite experience. I have toured 3 times. 2013, 2014, and 2016. The press was always moving.
Y'all seem to be thinking this is a bad thing. For those disagreeing with me, are you saying they do NOT support a 500k runrate? If so I recommend selling TSLA since they really cannot easily increase stamping capacity. I sleep easy at night knowing those presses are mostly idle. That means once the BIW line for M3 is up and running the whole factory will be running at optimal speed.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
Not playing spread. Not selling any options either, I don't want to margin, and I'm buying LEAPS soley as share replacement. I'm also not chasing the best price for my LEAPS. I know I get ripped off by a few $ when buying LEAPS compared with buying shares, but my aim is medium-term gain ($50s or more) that will dwarf the extra few $.
So much about this is wrong. Enough said.
Do it too slowly and climate change causes global unrest that makes Venezuela look like Disneyland
jhm
Well-Known Member
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
- Article
