2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[racer26]

I think it is more than the bare truth - "Analysts suck" - or that they at least are a lot like people that are trained to only look for one thing. They are falling prey to Maslow's Law - "...if the only tool you have is a hammer, to treat everything as a nail." Not only are their DCF models suspect, but they don't have the ability to leap out of the hammer mode and bring in analysts from utilities, energy, oil/gas, technology, AI, solar, mobility/autonomous driving, manufacturing....to properly model Tesla - this is only the beginning of watching them flail about.

The thing that has to be killing analysts right now - and not just the serial haters at UBS ($160/Sell)/Barclay's ($165/Sell)/Merrill ($155/Sell) is that Elon refuses to announce a Capital Raise, which by inference means that Tesla has an eye-watering lack of need for capital, which means they are on track for Model III, which means.....oh (sugar). The longer Tesla waits to raise Capital at $280, the stronger the case becomes that they have sufficient capital/cash flow from operations to meet their short and intermediate goals...creating more upwards pressure on the stock....strengthening the case that (rinse and repeat).

On further thought - that might be the most devastating blow that could be dealt tomorrow: Elon saying we won't raise capital until at least after starting customer deliveries of Model 3 at the earliest. Seems all of the bearish views right now are predicated on the notion that a cap raise is coming - (yet still seems to ignore the fact that in all likelihood, it wouldn't be a big problem even if we did do a cap raise, it needn't be dilutive, and any raise we might do is likely to be under $2B in value.)

 

[kenliles]

Oh, and analysts were most bullish - their targets almost $120 above share price - in July 2015! You can't make this stuff up.

stay strong for long--

leveraged time is life's short--

So say your investment's throng...

 

[SteveG3]

Tesla and Wall Street Have Never Been Further Apart

This is not about the analysts, rather just an attempt by someone at Bloomberg to throw cold water on the stock. Note that,

1) The article focuses on price targets not analyst sentiment (i.e. buy, sell, hold). Analyst sentiment is essentially unchanged from when the stock was at $180.

2) Tesla is coming out with 2017 guidance, and quite likely more detail re longer term positioning tomorrow. Nearly all the analysts will be updating their models within a week, just have not bothered to release any new numbers in recent weeks knowing such a report would be out of date in weeks. I've seen this before, including with Tesla. Sometimes this actually comes up in interviews of analysts, i.e., yes, we still have shares as a buy, our target is below current price as we are updating our model...

3) Risk/reward for each analyst staying employed and well paid is to get things right directionally, but stay conservative on price. i.e., saying "buy" with a target 15% higher has better risk reward than saying buy with a target 80% higher. There are exceptions, but generally they are happy to just follow the price up (we saw this in 2013 as their targets and TSLA price played "leapfrog" from $35 to $150 over couple of months).

fwiw, I'm not just throwing spaghetti at the false narrative in that "article" I posted essentially points 2 and 3 a couple of times here on TMC in the past month to make the point that there's a very very high probability we see quite a few target raises in the week after earnings.

 

[Peoria]

Thinking they will try to shake the tree a bit and drop the SP by at least 1% either before close today or at some point tomorrow. It would be strange to go into ER without some shenanigans to make traders nervous. Watching for a quick drop and jumping in if it happens. Targeting $276 or lower. If this stays flat to close or goes up, I'll wait until tomorrow to jump in. I want to be in for ER. Thinking the market will finally realize what Elon did for TSLA as a brand with the SCTY purchase. Bullish for ER!

 

[TrendTrader007]

$TSLA pretty strong start to earnings week action
Looks like the stock wants to run much higher after earnings
Strong bollinger walk weekly

 

[TrendTrader007]

$TSLA while I can't say with certainty so far the way this stock is acting it seems like it's ready to make a run for $300+ after ER

 

[TrendTrader007]

$TSLA if the stock runs over $300+ post ER that is when the real fun will start with shorts running for exits
Bring it on Elon!

 

[Nate the Great]

AH Fidelity 127,295 1.750 %

 

[AlMc]

Fast Money to discuss TM NOW

 

[everman]

Fast Money to discuss TM NOW

Can't wait for the summary.

 

[SteveG3]

Can't wait for the summary.

I can give part of it now,

Timothy Seymour will shake his head and try to drown the stock with cold water as he has since they started talking about it regularly in 2013 when it crossed over $50.

 

[MartinAustin]

First Solar FSLR just released quarterly earnings... beat estimates... up 1.3% after hours.

(still down over 40% over the last year)

 

[gene]

First Solar FSLR just released quarterly earnings... beat estimates... up 1.3% after hours.

(still down over 40% over the last year)

No idea why, but both SPWR and CSIQ up 9% today.

 

[Skryll]

No idea why, but both SPWR and CSIQ up 9% today.

maybe slowly it does sink in that most EV owners may want to be PV owners too also may be related to How to invest in the resource boom that Tesla Gigafactory and electric vehicles are creating talking about how investments get shuffled from fossil to new energy

 

[TrendTrader007]

$TSLA this three year old formation started exactly 3 years ago on 2/28 2014 is that a coincidence?

 

[TrendTrader007]

$TSLA long-term chart is too symmetric not to go up
$qqq $IWM $FB $BABA $NFLX $TSLA $FAS $TNA everything looks extremely bullish Naz wants to break out Can't imagine Tesla not going up bigtime
$TSLA I'm looking at numerous charts everything looks superbullish to me
I believe this is time to be aggressively super long
I'm All in
$TSLA probability of $TSLA going up after ER pretty high IMO
even if it drops it'll do an $AMZN and come right back up within a week or two

 

[dw4ngg]

$TSLA long-term chart is too symmetric not to go up

I wanted to be a bear so bad, but I couldn't. Stop trying to jinx it.

 

[GoTslaGo]

Econoday Economic Report: PMI Manufacturing Index Flash February 21, 2017

Quote:

Released On 2/21/2017 9:45:00 AM For Feb, 2017
.......................Prior....Consensus....Consensus Range....Actual
Level...............55.1....55.5................54.8 to 57.5................54.3

Highlights
The U.S. samples of Markit Economics are reporting slowing conditions this month though at still respectable rates of growth. The PMI manufacturing index flash fell back modestly to 54.3 in February representing only a slightly slower pace in order growth and production. Respondents are reporting strength in domestic orders but weaker growth for exports, and upbeat comments are cited for the energy sector. Costs, driven by raw materials, are at a 2-1/2 year high while selling prices are flat in what points to a margin squeeze.

Today's report also includes flash data on the service sector where the index is down nearly 2 points to 53.9. Here weakness is tied to less confidence in the outlook which is back to where it was in September last year, just before the November election. Service-sector respondents are reporting slowing orders and greater client caution.

Note that the format of Markit's flash report has changed to conform with the firm's Eurozone reports. A single composite flash index will be posted near mid-month that will include component flashes for the manufacturing and services indexes. The final manufacturing index will be released separately on the first business day of the following month followed by the final services and final composite indexes, both on the third day of the month.

Background data: The composite flash for February is 54.3 which compares with a final January composite of 55.8 and a January flash composite of 55.4. February's 53.9 service-sector flash compares with a final January service-sector index of 55.6 and a flash of 55.1. The manufacturing flash at 54.3 (the same value as the composite flash) compares with a final January manufacturing index of 55.0 and a flash of 55.1.

End quote.

 

[myusername]

this is what I recall after nearly EVERY TSLA ER... markets close... there's a roughly 3 to 5 minute wait... numbers come out... stock swings wildly in both directions only to land directly on max pain... which is currently $260... it gets pinned there until the CC... then makes a move off that in the event of any strongly positive or negative news... otherwise it just sits there. ER weeks are completely rigged... and so was the entire run up from Dec 5.

 

[AlMc]

this is what I recall after nearly EVERY TSLA ER... markets close... there's a roughly 3 to 5 minute wait... numbers come out... stock swings wildly in both directions only to land directly on max pain... which is currently $260... it gets pinned there until the CC... then makes a move off that in the event of any strongly positive or negative news... otherwise it just sits there. ER weeks are completely rigged... and so was the entire run up from Dec 5.

@myusername: In your opinion who is rigging the recent run up? Thanks