Depends on the ramp rate of Tesla things vs GF cells. They could need the extra volume from Panasonic Japan for a long time.
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Depends on the ramp rate of Tesla things vs GF cells. They could need the extra volume from Panasonic Japan for a long time.
GreyHair
Member
Actually it appears they haven't been too good at it yet and caused this huge shortage. Remember they had to use Samsung for Australian 100MW battery. But it does point to a great advantage for Tesla when their gigafactory really comes on line. There may be more delays there than we realize.
Yeah but we have irrefutable evidence that demand is nosediving, so maybe Tesla should just slap all those batteries in blister packs and sell them at Costco. GM and Ford can buy them there to stock up for all those Tesla killers coming in 5 years.
Reciprocity
Active Member
Holy crap really, I have been whining like a teenage girl about this for months.. haha. Tesla killers as they are laid out today couldnt muster more then 10k packs each given the hundreds of them coming to market in '19-'20. I just do not get it. And even IF, and its a big IF, they can get batteries, all they are doing is cannibalizing their profitable brands with massive EV losses. Maybe some of the early ones like the IPace might take market share from BMW, Audi or MB, but its not going to make a noticeable impact on Tesla because its not going to have 300 mile range or a charging network for many years.
Edit: The other problem is that if the prices go up, someone will build the batteries but then the cars will not be competitive because they need sub $125/KWh packs. So its a chicken and egg situation and the only company who gets is Tesla, they are build the Chicken, the egg and the roost.. and a large moat around the roost. Then they are guarding the moat with a dragon.
Assuming the report is accurate, the most likely explanation IMO is that Panasonic cell production at GF1 can't keep up with Tesla Energy pack production as it ramps up to meet demand in Puerto Rico and elsewhere.
I normally don't put much stock in stories like this but since Samsung supplied the cells for the SA big battery the report is consistent with Tesla continuing to ramp TE production quickly and gobbling up cells wherever it can to meet demand while Panasonic ramps up TE cell production at GF1.
Sudre
Active Member
ABInbev has a can plant about 15 miles from the brewery. They run trucks between constantly. The can plant already has an automated forklift system for loading. I am sure they just can't wait for the electric automated trucking part. I already figured they would be on the Tesla semi ASAP. They probably want them yesterday.
Didn't one of the articles say that AB placed their reservations before the reveal event?
GreyHair
Member
I wasn't very clear. I think this quote is exactly what this means. Tesla is the only company that gets it and while finances are dreary now, the car and battery synergy is absolutely huge.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
If you are trying to show that you are a reliable source of information because seekingsleeze has balanced Tesla coverage your posts defending seekingsleeze have the opposite effect on this forum.
In other words if you are trying to prove that your analysis is useless makings posts claiming that seekingsleeze is an unbiased source of information with “a few bad apples” is an excellent way to accomplish that goal.
I’m trying to be helpful, but I pretty sure based on past experience when I have made posts that even hinted at being critical of you that this post will trigger several “disagrees” from you. That’s juvenile and also another excellent way to demonstrate that you are incapable of providing unbiased analysis.
Moderator note (ggr): this last paragraph crosses the written line by directly namecalling another member.
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VA gets way too emotional when the subject is SA... I mean If you talk about my family negatively I’m sure I have a similar response.
Emotion has no place in any TSLA analysis or investment strategy.
The pair (fossil fuel industry, and global automakers) make up roughly 10% of the world's economy (did some research on this a few weeks ago).
The short position has been basically between 20% and 30% since I started following Tesla in the spring of 2012. In the run up in 2013 it dipped to... about 18% (that was down from about 28-30% before the run). Some of that run in 2013 may have been some short covering... but there was no squeeze. Sure seems like someone for some reason keeping a massive short position regardless of what Tesla's fair value looks like.
In 2012, such a position could have actually ended Tesla as they were in a real risk of Model S rampup vs. cash burn and did an undesirable cap raise at about $30/share in the fall of 2012.
Now, we have the flood of rubbish narrative that Tesla is in such a tight spot again. If such a -strategic-defend-massive-chunk-of-global-economy-turf-short- is what's been going on, it's not about killing Tesla, but, anything that can take years off the implosion of the fossil fuel-transportation cash machine, like giving cover to the incumbent automakers moving as slowly as possible to EVs, touting nonsense like a hydrogen fuel cell future, and fear mongering about how unwise it would be to buy a Tesla vehicle only to see the company go out of business.
Losing a few billion in a short position per year is an extremely cheap price to pay for extending that cash machine several years.
One last bit of circumstantial evidence... have you ever seen any other public company so extensively and frequently slammed with false narratives? From the WSJ to the New York Times, to even Reuters of late, among many many others. Hedge funds may get a reporter here or there to trumpet some false narratives on a stock they are playing... but for years now it's been the majority of Tesla coverage, it's been at a furious pace, and the bs has come from almost every news organization. That seems more like something the concentrated wealth of 10% of the economy could do than a hedge fund here or there.
2nd batch of Model 3 invites went out this morning. Good sign.
Blimey, that's archaic and inefficient! Here in Belgium they have a pipeline to solve this kind of issue:
Belgian brewery's pipe dream brings relief to medieval Bruges
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Fred at Electrek's take on these articles:
Tesla Gigafactory is reportedly linked to global shortage of battery cells – but is it?
Reciprocity
Active Member
I guess my point was that the car does not work without dealing with the battery issues. Battery issues being multiple; Safety, Durability, Cost, Weight, Supply and Energy Density among I am sure dozens of others. If you dont make your own batteries, how do you resolve ALL of those issues? One solution would be if some company out there was making a billion cells for you that matched your exact specs, but they are not. Hell, how do you even know your exact spec without doing the due diligence to find the exact chemistry needed to achieve your goals. Those who are making massive volumes today are not selling them outside of places like China due to demand at home. That and China is making special batteries for Chinese requirements that would not be ideal for a say a European luxury car brand that needs 300 miles of range at autobahn speeds.
Someone will come along and build a lot of batteries, but they are not here yet and announcements have been spotty and its hard to tell how real any of them are. We know the Gigafactory is real, and Tesla has certainly had some issues, but at least they have broken ground and have walls up. And its laughable when companies like VW announce an $80B investment in EVs and no one calls it cash burn. Its only cash burn if Tesla is making the investments required to make all this stuff work.
No idea. 5-6 posters have reported receiving them, including two who got a 2nd reservation invited for some reason.
I got my 2nd Model 3 invite today. I ordered two (waited in line first day, S owner, CA). I got the first invite the same day all the other first non-employees got theirs. Even though I reserved them both at the same time, the website always showed one reservation being earlier than the other.
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