Menifeer
Member
Some of us believe that all the good news is already baked into the current SP...
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How can you say that as the good news continues to flow forth (UPS 125,000 semi order, etc.)?
So... the plot thickens. TSLA has recovered from its morning dip and poked its head into the green. A game of bop-the-mole ensued in which parties with such inclinations (shorts) sell as necessary on multiple occasions to prevent an afternoon rally from getting underway. At 2:10pm more than 99,000 shares traded hands in one minute and the stock descended slightly, back into the red. Just coincidence? I think not.
BTW, the purpose of the bop-the-mole game is to defuse the upward momentum as TSLA reclaimed the green. It is to tire the longs and send the signal that no rally is happening today. Hoping we rally nonetheless. The shorts have only so much ammo to play on this game today.
And this is why TSLA the last few days makes no sense. These are produced cars, already sold due to the reservation list, so guaranteed revenue stream for Tesla in the near future once delivered. As an investor, buying now knowing the above would be logical. But the market is seldom logical
Dennisj00
Member
Was this a Freudian slip or on purpose to spark the algo-bots??!!
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
There was only one person who commented who actually watched the videos. OTOH his posts sound too good. I actually wondered if it’s Ben posting.
I really enjoyed it. The presenters were excellent; Robert Llewelyn was particularly good, as you would imagine. I thought the guy who started Tesloop gave a really worthwhile talk also. Oh and the car guru guy in his amazing basement full of dismembered Teslas, waiting to come back to life. (That might have been partly from season 7 of GoT..) Ben from Teslanomics was a very polished MC.
The most valuable thing about it, to me, was that all of the attendees could ask as many questions as we wanted. I was able to settle some important questions that I've had as a three-month Model S owner. Not at all like watching canned YouTube videos.
Anyway, well done, everyone!
His follow up post:
The reddiit community is responsive, no doubt. But if you listened to a presentation by someone who had a lot of experience in the very thing you wanted to know about, then you could ask a question (and follow ups) and watch him answer immediately, that's a pretty great way to go. I watched it on my screen so there were no travel expenses.
The software they used was usable, too. There were polls for each session that were interesting, it looked like about half of the attendees were current Tesla owners and the other half were Model 3 reservation holders.
I'm hoping that the presenters liked it, so they will try it again.
dc_h
Active Member
No parts. They might be coordinating deliveries in a big batch, or waiting for a software update. There have been some quirks, so a patch before releasing would make sense.
MartinAustin
Active Member
My guess is that the cars are physically finished, but the software division is crunching to complete a specific list of changes that Tesla want to have in non-staff cars. They have been willing to accept a certain number of rough edges to the software since employees/relatives have been picking them up. But it's a higher bar for the public.
Menifeer
Member
The current market cap puts it on a par with companies that make lots of money. I don't expect Tesla to have a net profit any time soon due to the many needs for spending on its plate.
I understand the projections for car sales, TE and the solar business, but I believe they're overly optimistic. Ford sells more F-series pickups per year (at a very handsome margin) than Tesla hopes to sell in all its versions. TE isn't the only game in town. The solar business isn't likely to provide significant profits (particularly if the panels are used to power Superchargers, on which the company makes no money).
Service centers need to be built. I asked for estimates of how much each would cost, but got no response. Those centers will also likely be a net drag on profits when in operation since little routine maintenance is needed on EVs.
Having fingered all that, I expect that the SP will rise due to the belief by many of what the company may achieve. Without that belief and the resulting price movement, I wouldn't be able to successfully trade the shares and options.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Tesla can sell more than 900k pickups per year at very healthy margins. Ford F-Series is limited to North America and a few Raptors worldwide. Because Tesla is not limited by extreme TCO outside North America( gas and diesel prices) Tesla can sell their pickup in rural areas world wide. Russia,Scandinavia, Australia etc.
Currently. Model 3 and Model Y owners will pay $.13-$.21 per kWh and at some point future Model S,Model X,and pickup truck owners will too. I can't see the SN not making money by 2020.
Since EVs need so little maintenance Tesla will build less Service Centers per million Teslas on the road than BMW per 1 million BMWs on the road. Tesla service centers will be just as busy as BMW service centers at its dealerships. At worst Tesla service centers break even. Tesla isn't charging $10 per hour for service.
Menifeer
Member
Fewer Service Centers means that many people won't have one in their 'hood. That won't be a good situation when competing EVs have dealers most everywhere.
The profits from how many M3s will be required to build one Service Center? I'm thinking it's a lot.
Lack of need for maintenance is a selling point for EVs. What services will be required that make the centers profitable?
Tesla is not limited to service centers and is rapidly expanding its service reach through the mobile service fleet. Not surprisingly, so far most people seem to like house calls:
The number of service locations increased by 6% in Q3, while we managed to increase our technician capacity by 10% per service center. Our mobile service fleet has expanded to 160 service units in Q3, and we are expecting this number to almost double by the end of this year. Reaction to both the speed and convenience of our mobile service has been very positive, with customer satisfaction for this offering at nearly 100% during the quarter.
TrendTrader007
Active Member
I’m waiting for January 2, 2018 to buy more TSLA into non deductible IRA and then I’ve got over a X dollars sitting in TSLA in a non deductible IRA to convert into Roth the week of January 8th. Now the ideal scenario will be for TSLA to
Stay quiet until I’m able to buy more on January 2nd. I doubt it. With the current price action it seems highly likely to rally strongly into the rest of this year. If it doesn’t I’ll be happy. If it does I’ll not be so happy but I’ll make lot more money especially with my January 19, 2019 calls expiring. I’ll be on hook to pay at least $XXXK in taxes for 2018 in 2019 if I convert $X of TSLA into Roth in 2018. I’m well aware that the longer I wait the higher SP will be and consequently the higher my tax liability. However, I’m so severely cash strapped with virtually 160% of my net worth tied up in TSLA stock that the only way I can pay my taxes for 2018 in 2019 is if my calls make money. Hence, the need for watchful waiting.
My best guess is that by January 3rd or 4th TSLA will be markedly higher than now and all the next 6 trading days will do is bolster the long term charts
On the brighter side approximately 48% of my common position turned LT capital gains today and if TSLA does what I suspect it’ll do over the next year then the time to buy this stock to realize LT capital by January 2, 2019 will be to buy the stock by end of trading December 29th, 2017
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I differ and demur just a bit about TE and Solar and such.
A simple thought experiment
A town, very small, 1.5 miles on a side (2.25sq miles) low density housing, 6 houses per acre
This gives you, roughly 1,500 residences.
Each residence say has a 7 kilowatt PV array and half of them have 1 14kWh power wall and half have 2 power walls.
You suddenly, incrimantally have a 10.5 megawatt PV array, distributed, and a -->30 megawatt Virtual Power Plant, VPP, that can be tied together with software.
This will be scaleable. T&D (transmission and Distribution) losses will probably be negligible since you only send the electrons usually a few hundred feet, not miles.
I suspect none of us understand Tesla Energy
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Mid size cities will have enough Teslas to support at least a small service center. In the Boonies there will be Ranger Service. If that is not good enough for you then you can buy a Nissan,GM, or Chinese BEV/PHEV.
No service center will service M3 exclusively but all retail Teslas. Commercial Teslas will have their own. I figure 4k Teslas in an area can support a Service Center. S3XY + Pickup + Roadster. Currently CA has one service center per ~3500 Teslas. That is Tesla expanding expecting Model 3 in CA first.
A car is more than powertrain. Stuff breaks down. Handles, 12v battery, sunroof mechanism. At some point refurbished or new replacement packs can be offered. Tesla can expand or shrink the Service Center as demand warrants. You can have 1 tech during business hours or 20.
Tesla doesn't need a 20 Bay Service Center supporting a Dealership Palace in every City/County in America plus all foreign markets.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Elon has said he has no intention to make money off service/maintenance.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
He also said Tesla would not make a battery pack larger than 100 kWh. Because it was not necessary.
And I think he just announced a 200 kWh pack.
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