2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[MitchJi]

Agreed, not a ton to shove the price either direction in the call yet, I think. I added some shares after reading the letter though.

I believe that the dip is temporary. Bought some March 3rd $290's and $300's before the ER that are now down to almost nothing. I just bought twice as many $290's for $0.24 plus about half as many March 24 $280's for $3.00 each.

Such a dip might be our best buying opportunity this week.

I agree. Decided not to pay for the additional June time value or April for the numbers (cheap lottery tickets).

(I bought some protective puts right before ER, and believed those funds would be lost when the report came out.. seem I might close these neutral today.)

Smart decision!

 

[Paracelsus]

Is it just me or does today's chart look a lot like yesterday's FSLR chart. So, hopefully tomorrow's chart will look like today's FSLR chart.

Nice find!

 

[Nate the Great]

Wonder if shorts are taking advantage of the dip to cover or opening up new positions to go with the momentum? Anyone have recent Fidelity numbers?

Fidelity

296,761 1.750 %

 

[1kEE]

I found selling 267.50 and 275 calls expiring tomorrow to be rather difficult, but I did it.... what was worth tens of thousands this morning netted me $225 when I finally sold them towards close.

Be interesting to see what happens. If I get those shares called out tomorrow, we will all be smiling.

 

[hoang51]

I'm under the impression that news for TSLA is all about raising capital soon and is tanking the stock. Everything else is who cares. The way I heard things yesterday, Elon stated it is not required and not good for shareholders, but people are spinning it that it is soon. People who are shorting are probably in need of this negative spin to slow down the bleeding. I'm hopeful that TSLA would recover just like FSLR. Otherwise, I would like to sell and buy back lower as there isn't much news until summer.

 

[racer26]

I'm under the impression that news for TSLA is all about raising capital soon and is tanking the stock. Everything else is who cares. The way I heard things yesterday, Elon stated it is not required and not good for shareholders, but people are spinning it that it is soon. People who are shorting are probably in need of this negative spin to slow down the bleeding. I'm hopeful that TSLA would recover just like FSLR. Otherwise, I would like to sell and buy back lower as there isn't much news until summer.

I've said over and over again, raising capital when they don't *need* to isn't a bad thing.

It doesn't have to be value-dilutive to existing shareholders, as they can simply issue at the current market value.

Selling $1B of new stock adds $1B to cash, for a net zero action.

Action like today? Just makes it more likely that they will choose not to.

I did today what has become my MO when the SP does nonsensical dives on good news (Model 3 being on-schedule if not arguably early, and confirming that it too will have similar margins to S/X is far and away the most important thing disclosed yesterday.)

When the market sells off for no reason, I move my plays to shorter term and higher striked (and therefore higher leverage) options. As we climbed to this level from the duldrums of 180, I deleveraged, moving things to longer term, lower striked calls. I'm bullish enough that I'm not carrying any common shares, as I think they're not leveraged enough for the aggressive climb to come.

Also: I feel like today is the largest single day move - drop or gain - since I got onboard in June 2016.

Can anyone confirm?

 

[TMSE]

I'm under the impression that news for TSLA is all about raising capital soon and is tanking the stock. Everything else is who cares. The way I heard things yesterday, Elon stated it is not required and not good for shareholders, but people are spinning it that it is soon. People who are shorting are probably in need of this negative spin to slow down the bleeding. I'm hopeful that TSLA would recover just like FSLR. Otherwise, I would like to sell and buy back lower as there isn't much news until summer.

Model 3 ramp up plan as outlined in the ER is hugely positive IMO. However, there are two things I am concerned about:

1) CFO Jason leaving, although could be for genuine personal reasons. Return of Mr. Ahuja should mostly mitigate this concern as no sane person would return to a sinking ship. Unfortunately though, this adds uncertainty and risk and hence the extra discount on stock price.

2) Model 3 reveal postponed to July. This leads To concerns that Model 3 interior is not ready yet. What I believe though, Elon would wait until all in-production MS/MX have upgraded interior that is a superset of that of M3.

 

[Driver Dave]

There was plenty of good interesting things in ER that pointed to a good solid long direction.

But it does seem that the bad points made for better clicks this time around... and a good supply of "people who really don't get it" takes with big headlines... so alas we go down.

But for us longs, this little down is a but a blip in the long term road as the world heads to electric mobility, solar energy and battery storage.. and only Tesla is really there to capitlize on it in a big connected manner.

It really is easy to see the future where Elon is a genius shooting the puck exactly to where things are headed, and those that didn't buy stock when it was in the 200s are kicking themselves.

It's so easy to see, I'm always amazed when people don't.

Oh unless they are shorting and need to not see it, I get that.

 

[T3slaTulips]

Also: I feel like today is the largest single day move - drop or gain - since I got onboard in June 2016.

Can anyone confirm?

Depends on which day in June.
June 21 $219.61
June 22 $196.66

 

[Turing]

I've said over and over again, raising capital when they don't *need* to isn't a bad thing.

It doesn't have to be value-dilutive to existing shareholders, as they can simply issue at the current market value.

Selling $1B of new stock adds $1B to cash, for a net zero action.

Action like today? Just makes it more likely that they will choose not to.

I did today what has become my MO when the SP does nonsensical dives on good news (Model 3 being on-schedule if not arguably early, and confirming that it too will have similar margins to S/X is far and away the most important thing disclosed yesterday.)

When the market sells off for no reason, I move my plays to shorter term and higher striked (and therefore higher leverage) options. As we climbed to this level from the duldrums of 180, I deleveraged, moving things to longer term, lower striked calls. I'm bullish enough that I'm not carrying any common shares, as I think they're not leveraged enough for the aggressive climb to come.

Also: I feel like today is the largest single day move - drop or gain - since I got onboard in June 2016.

Can anyone confirm?

The weird thing at the moment is the technical chart doesn't look great short term, and while i need to go back and do some research, my memory is that past major downturns were generally preceded by pretty unavoidable bad news, like major issues and delays with the model X ramp. Nothing in the ER suggests any kind of major shift to bearish sentiment. The worst thing in it was maybe a cap raise to de-risk, so unless we get taken down with bad macro news/trends, it seems like the overall trend is still moderately bullish over the next few months for tesla.

 

[TrendTrader007]

IF all your TSLA investment is ONLY Long shares/J19s then I agree. However, many on this forum do at least some *trading* to try to increase their overall wealth. Taking some profit after this nice run from 180 to 270 with the intent to reinvest either in TSLA again after the dip you describe or in another stock does not make one an idiot. (an idiotic move)

Yes, one might miss further run up but one might also be better off in the long run.

So, I agree with you (except calling others *idiots*) IF you are ONLY a long stock holder but disagree IF you do some trading from time to time.

I'm not calling anyone an idiot for selling tesla here
I'm simply stating that for me selling Tsla here would be an idiotic move

 

[Krugerrand]

I wasn't suggesting that would be all the employee deliveries, just that the first bunch of cars getting delivered to the first few employees happens at the 'delivery event', much like the first few X's were delivered at an event.

Yeah. Um. No, I don't think that's how it will go at all. But we'll find out soon enough, apparently.

 

[Krugerrand]

Participants in the referral program are being rewarded with tickets to a Model 3 delivery event. Why wouldn't the delivery event in question involve deliveries to employees? On the Model S and Model X delivery events, the customers were insiders.

I don't think so. There may be a delivery event with a few cars going to 'executives' or some such, but not regular employees like Mr. Moran. That sets up a situation of pissing off the rest of your work force.

 

[racer26]

I don't think so. There may be a delivery event with a few cars going to 'executives' or some such, but not regular employees like Mr. Moran. That sets up a situation of pissing off the rest of your work force.

I think we mostly agree.

There will be a delivery event, just as there was for S and X. We know this, because the current referral program has an invite to it as a prize.

What we don't know is who is getting their cars there, and how many cars are getting delivered that night?

Since we know employees and other insiders are first in line, I assume it will be some subset of them. We know that somewhere in the ballpark of 10k of the reservations are employees. That would suggest its unlikely that ALL of the employees get them at the event.

I would say the only fair way to do it would be to cherry pick some group of employees. Execs? managers? I dunno.

I suspect though, that the event will deliver greater than just 2 or 3 cars, but less than 100.

 

[Krugerrand]

We know that somewhere in the ballpark of 10k of the reservations are employees.

We do? What source? At the time of employee reservations there were 15,000ish Tesla employees (I actually think that's a little high and it was closer to 12-13,000). And upon checking with Google there are 4,000ish at SpaceX. So you're saying in excess of 50% of the employees ordered a Model 3? Again, source?

 

[Yggdrasill]

We do? What source? At the time of employee reservations there were 15,000ish Tesla employees (I actually think that's a little high and it was closer to 12-13,000). And upon checking with Google there are 4,000ish at SpaceX. So you're saying in excess of 50% of the employees ordered a Model 3? Again, source?

I'm not sure we "know", but I do think each employee can order two cars, so you wouldn't need over 50%. Also, I'm sure the Solar City employees Tesla absorbed will also get priority, so it could be much higher now.

 

[racer26]

We do? What source? At the time of employee reservations there were 15,000ish Tesla employees (I actually think that's a little high and it was closer to 12-13,000). And upon checking with Google there are 4,000ish at SpaceX. So you're saying in excess of 50% of the employees ordered a Model 3? Again, source?

I'm not sure we "know", but I do think each employee can order two cars, so you wouldn't need over 50%. Also, I'm sure the Solar City employees Tesla absorbed will also get priority, so it could be much higher now.

Tesla Model 3: data shows that Tesla and SpaceX employees made over 10,000 reservations

 

[Krugerrand]

Tesla Model 3: data shows that Tesla and SpaceX employees made over 10,000 reservations

Thanks. Had not seen that article. Going to put another grain of salt on my $1T market cap margarita now.

 

[Irishjugg]

You're wrong about this unless the drop is really substantial. (Or you're in a low tax bracket.)



So, consider my shares which have a basis of $180 and a long-term holding period. If I sold them at $280 and bought back at $260, I gain $20/share and I pay taxes on $100/share -- taxes at a combined state & federal rate of greater than 20%, so more than $20/share. In short, it's not a profitable thing to do

Don't you gain 100/share and pay taxes on that, then establish a new cost basis at 260 which you don't pay taxes on the 20 "gain" until you sell again?

My understanding was that the net effect is no taxes paid on the repurchase but you have more total shares than you started with

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Today was a very ominous day. VIX down even though most companies that have been rallying non stop were down.

Not the least bit surprised the stock closed down. It was hardly a well kept secret that Tesla is on or ahead of schedule with the Model 3. I wouldn't be surprised if the stock retests $270 or falls to $200 tomorrow. The Fed doesn't know how to react to or interpret Trump. How are investors supposed to?

A bit surprised by the way the media is covering Tesla's CFO leaving for reasons that might benefit Tesla further in the long term. Also he's being replaced by Tesla's former and very qualified CFO Deepak.

Sold entire stock position ~$280 but am still holding a position. Until it becomes clear what Trump is doing, and the market returns to normal I suspect anything could happen to the broad market.

Trump's pledge to restore coal country is very concerning and strange.