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Yeah. This is worth dwelling on actually. Elon thinks the Model 3 will be just as profitable per-car as the Model S+X by the end of the year. That is obviously quite an achievement. And it's obvious the first cars aren't profitable at all - if you take the cost of building the Gigafactory into account! New robots on the assembly line, etc.. There are all sorts of ways to make the car look profitable, or unprofitable.A lot of small retail investors were probably taken in by the Jim Cramer lie on CNBC this morning when he claimed that Musk said in the conference call M3 margins were going to be 'horrendous'. In fact he said they'd be horrendous the day they started the line (obviously), then rise to around the same as s+x by the end of the year - around 30%. I'd be selling to if I thought M3 margins were going to be horrendous.
Participants in the referral program are being rewarded with tickets to a Model 3 delivery event. Why wouldn't the delivery event in question involve deliveries to employees? On the Model S and Model X delivery events, the customers were insiders.What delivery event? You think the employees need a 'delivery event'?
yahoo Finance isn't showing these upgrades. I wonder why not?Tesla Motors's PT raised by Robert W. Baird to $368.00.
Tesla Motors's PT raised by RBC Capital Markets to $314.00.
So far...
I wasn't suggesting that would be all the employee deliveries, just that the first bunch of cars getting delivered to the first few employees happens at the 'delivery event', much like the first few X's were delivered at an event.I think your count is off. I expect thousands made for employees. Tesla and SpaceX employees were given the opportunity and it wouldn't surprise me if in the meantime of the SCTY merge that also those employees have also been given a chance to get first in line.
Jim, like everybody else, is out there to make money. But I think that full autonomy will be a sleeper profit center for the M3. They could offer a purchase price for autonomy, or they could offer a subscription model... Purchase autonomy for $6-8k (Whatever they pick) or subscribe for $75/mo. Pre-pay, turn it on/off as you like, first month's free. Just like those coke dealers that visit the stock analysts, Tesla knows that once they try it, they'll be hooked.A lot of small retail investors were probably taken in by the Jim Cramer lie on CNBC this morning when he claimed that Musk said in the conference call M3 margins were going to be 'horrendous'. In fact he said they'd be horrendous the day they started the line (obviously), then rise to around the same as s+x by the end of the year - around 30%. I'd be selling to if I thought M3 margins were going to be horrendous.
This is just people selling the news. Tesla had a great run over 3 months off of no major news. It was such a great run that it was tough for longs to pass up $280. No worries though, TSLA will settle around $240. We're approaching Model 3 territory so we may see quite a bit of volatility soon.
It was solidly neutral. Almost everything lined up with my expectations with one exception. SG&A is much higher than predicted, which is a complete mixed bag and depends on what's driving the costs there. I should dig into that further.Most people who haven't let their good judgement be clouded with emotion realize just how bad the ER is.
I think you can't tell the difference between gross and net margins in capital-intensive businesses. This seems to be a really common problem and it actually causes consistent mispricing of railroad stocks. As most of us know, Tesla is raking in profits on Model S and Model X.With Tesla, it ALWAYS seems to be, "yes, this ER is not good, but right around the corner, something great is about to happen." I think people are simply tiring of it and are ready to see the results.
And I think MOST all realistic people figure if you can't make money on a vehicle that is in a class where EVERY other car manufacturer is raking in the profits, then you surely aren't going to make money on a mid-size sedan where no other manufacture makes very much money.
sorry... you can't "disagree" with the above... it is fact that Elon said they don't need to (when everyone knew they did) but might for "risk reduction"... and then 5 trading days later... they had all the details laid out along with buyers that closed early in the next week. it is very possible that they already have everything lined up for another raise next week.
I expect a push towards max pain by Friday. So I see close on Friday somewhere between $260 and $270. Probably in the neighborhood of $270 more likely. I am still very bullish long-term, but relatively neutral to perhaps slightly bearish for the next couple of weeks. Obviously if we have a strong day Thursday, then you can throw this prediction out the window, but I expect a decent open, maybe $280 to $282 at most, and then move down throughout the day and close around $275 or less. Then move down to $270 or less Friday.
I just looked over my TSLA portfolio transactions. I have bought on bad news almost always, emphasis on almost. I have yet to sell a TSLA share. With some fairly bearish populist-style critics and a handful of auto industry analysts who are unable to see the difference between GM and TSLA there certainly is some cynicism moving the sentiment of unanalytic people down. I thus see the bearish events today.Yeah. This is worth dwelling on actually. Elon thinks the Model 3 will be just as profitable per-car as the Model S+X by the end of the year. That is obviously quite an achievement. And it's obvious the first cars aren't profitable at all - if you take the cost of building the Gigafactory into account! New robots on the assembly line, etc.. There are all sorts of ways to make the car look profitable, or unprofitable.
It's looking like $258-ish is the low point beyond which investors are saying "this is crazy, I've gotta buy some of this."
Also worth noting that TSLA is now at a 2-week low!!! That's right. It reached the $260 area around February 8th.
Doesn't matter that much honestly. Obviously this is better in a non taxable account, but 75% or a massive gain is still a massive gain. Not making a deeply profitable trade because taxes will decrease the profit is being pennywise and pound foolish.Not in a taxable account.
If I'm majorly wrong in my above reply, please correct me. Learning is the most useful thing.Not in a taxable account.
I believe you mean "peakers"?There is something on the order of 1300 TWH in speakers alone. The DOE numbers for natural gas were my metric since most of that is used for speakers, although some speakers are oil too:
You're wrong about this unless the drop is really substantial. (Or you're in a low tax bracket.)Doesn't matter that much honestly.
Obviously this is better in a non taxable account, but 75% or a massive gain is still a massive gain. Not making a deeply profitable trade because taxes will decrease the profit is being pennywise and pound foolish.
Oh, well in THAT case when you're sitting on a realizable tax loss -- or if your taxes on the gains are going to be erased by deductions which you otherwise can't claim -- yeah, you totally should. I've done stuff like that.In my case I'm lucky enough to be profit taking with really old converted SCTY shares around 40/share, so I'll actually show paper losses FIFO on my ~80% gains.