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2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

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TrendTrader doubles his position in Tesla every day as far as I can tell.

Well, now we know who Elon will have to compete with to become the first trillionaire.

In other news, Tesla's SP continue a slow rise in after-hours trading

tslaapr7a.JPG

Shorts, be afraid, be very afraid.
 
Well, I am very happy, and pleasantly surprised with the SP the last two days. I was worried about two major forces that could have pushed the SP below 290. #1 - Weak longs that would sell when the SP started going back down to 295, indicating the possible end of the run, and a signal for profit taking before buying back in below 280. #2 - Lots of shorts piling in once the stock stopped climbing and went down to 295, indicating to them the run-up was finished, and now was the time to get back in. Both appeared to have failed to lower the price below 295, and the fact that we are over 300 again so quickly, leads me to believe now that we will not drop below 295 before ER. If I was a short, I would be VERY scared now. I doubt any more longs will sell at this point if they didn't sell at 295. Now I'm hoping for >320 by ER, so a post ER drop (if it happens) still keeps us over 300.
 
Well, I am very happy, and pleasantly surprised with the SP the last two days. I was worried about two major forces that could have pushed the SP below 290. #1 - Weak longs that would sell when the SP started going back down to 295, indicating the possible end of the run, and a signal for profit taking before buying back in below 280. #2 - Lots of shorts piling in once the stock stopped climbing and went down to 295, indicating to them the run-up was finished, and now was the time to get back in. Both appeared to have failed to lower the price below 295, and the fact that we are over 300 again so quickly, leads me to believe now that we will not drop below 295 before ER. If I was a short, I would be VERY scared now. I doubt any more longs will sell at this point if they didn't sell at 295. Now I'm hoping for >320 by ER, so a post ER drop (if it happens) still keeps us over 300.


It's pretty rare, but I'm actually pretty confident the ER will be positive, given Elon's tweet. I don't think he would have dared to mock the shorts a few weeks before earnings if the ER would likely be negative... that would be too stupid, and Elon would lose a huge chunk of credibility doing so.
So the ER will very likely be positive.

I think we're well placed to attain 350-375 in the next 1-3 months.
 
When was the last time Elon mocked the shorts, anyone remember? 2013?

I'd love to hear from anyone that remembers the exact timing of that...

  • "Seems to be some stormy weather over in Shortville these days" April 25, 2013 Elon Musk on Twitter
  • ???????? :)
 
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When was the last time Elon mocked the shorts, anyone remember? 2013?

I'd love to hear from anyone that remembers the exact timing of that...

Early sept 2016 count?
"It would be awesome to throw a pie in the face of all naysayers on Wall Street who keep insisting that Tesla will always be a money loser!" -elon

Q3 big beat, stock went down for little over one month, then we began this rally.

Never know which direction this stock is heading (short term) but he was right about showing profits.
 
It finished 4c above an option strike price, with lower volume than recently... I think max pain came into play.
Don't think so. Volume on the weeklies is low and particularly low on the X.50 strikes (traders seem to like the round numbers). Furthermore, max pain says the options market makers would *really* prefer a close below 300 (there are loads of 300 calls every week for weeks to come).
 
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When was the last time Elon mocked the shorts, anyone remember? 2013?

I'd love to hear from anyone that remembers the exact timing of that...
It's back a few pages. April 25th or so of 2013..,stock was at 52, one year later was at 202.

For those that are interested, this video should give a little perspective of how far we have come since the last Elon Shortsville tweet. (And this supercharger deployment video was made in 2015). If you can remeber when superchargers could be counted on one hand and were brand new, made up technology that no one else had begun to deploy....and look at the network now.

Then think of energy storage and the video we will be able to make in 2.5 years, except these will be revenue generating rather than an expense.

Timelapse Animation Shows Tesla Supercharger Rise Around the World
 
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When was the last time Elon mocked the shorts, anyone remember? 2013?

I'd love to hear from anyone that remembers the exact timing of that...

First time was on September 13, 2012 in a Fox Business News interview:

On Tesla’s stock being a “huge short position”:

“It’s doing pretty well actually given that we’re such a huge short position. In fact I think the short position may be as high as one can actually go. They literally hit the ceiling on the short position. The shorts are in it to the hills. I think it is very unwise to be shorting Tesla, it’s very unwise. There is a tsunami of hurt coming for the short." Video: Elon Musk Tells Fox Business That "Tsunami of Hurt Coming for Those Shorting Tesla"

Some have theorized this would have been about the time Tesla entered into new contracts for regulatory credits. Credit sales have no associated COGS and drop straight to the bottom line. The prior credit contract with Honda had expired at the end of 2011 and totaled $2.7 million for that year, In the report for 4Q12, Tesla reported profits of $40.5 million from regulatory credits and a net loss of $396 million. For 1Q13, Tesla reported a profit of $85 million in regulatory credit sales and net income of $11 million. It was Tesla's first quarterly profit and surprised Wall Street so it was off to the races.

On April 5, 2016, Elon also responded in a tweet question about shorting: "probably unwise."
 
A bot picking up on TrendTrader007 posts\tweets moving the SP is laughable.

Julian Cox believed his article on Seeking Alpha moved the stock, remember that? o_O Talk about delusional.
wasn't the stock price less than 1/2 what it is now? Julian has a nice discussion of hydrogen fuel economy also. lose ~90% of the energy converting electricity to H2 and back to electricity. I'm unsure of the delusion since long term it is much higher:)
 
TrendTrader doubles his position in Tesla every day as far as I can tell.
lol alright all I'm doing is simply maxing out my margin at Fidelity and Ameritrade and buying as many call options as I can. I'm pretty much done with all my buying spree. I'm maxed out at about $x million on margin (not my total position just my outstanding margin loan) and my option portfolio stands at about $xxxk or so
I think I'm finally satisfied with my current position and do not expect to buy anything more for the foreseeable future
Tsla is now on the runway primed to take off and I'm relaxed enjoying my weekend looking forward to next several months of steady profits
I did end up raising my average cost basis from $203 to $209 with all my recent buys but in the long run it'll pay off handsomely. I already have a paper profit of well over $xxxxxxx the stock has not even taken off yet so it's all good
 
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In the one month TrendTrader007 has managed my small portfolio this is the percentage of my returns. Although, he won't let me put any money in Ulta, I think it is clear he knows what he is doing. Yesterday I got a very clear picture of how much so, when he asked if I wanted to send over more funds at closing, and this AM I had made nearly 50 percent off of that call option. I know he's very grandiose, but I think he may just be a genius
 

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