2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[Reciprocity]

Tesla? It recently crossed $7B LTM revenue, and its revenue is expected to grow 300-500% from 2016 to 2018 (I expect more than 500%), and 50-100% (I expect more than 100% CAGR) thereafter each year for the next several years.

@ValueAnalyst: Your math is way off. To go from $7 billion in 2016 to $35 billion in 2018 is "only" a 125% growth rate for each of 2017 and 2018.

Looks like Value is saying the same thing you are.. over 100% CAGR with a total of 300-500% growth over the 2 years. 7b to 35b is as you said.. 125% compounded. It is also 7b - 35b is 500% total increase. 125% compounded over 2 years in this case is 500% total.

 

[Rarity]

I said 300-500% growth from 2016 to 2018. That's the same thing as what you're saying. So we agree.

No, you said 300-500% growth "in 2018." That's a one-year growth rate.

In any event, what's your case for 500% growth rate from 2016 to 2018? You showed a 400% growth rate from 2016 to 2018.

 

[FredTMC]

Here we go ATH.

Quick, every buy 100 shares on my mark

Three, two, one. "Buy now"

Pop it like its hot!

Lol

 

[ValueAnalyst]

No, you said 300-500% growth "in 2018." That's a one-year growth rate.

In any event, what's your case for 500% growth rate from 2016 to 2018? You showed a 400% growth rate from 2016 to 2018.

Ok. I'm done with that back-and-forth. People can go back and look at exactly what I said verbatim in my OP.

I told you my case for more than 500% growth from 2016 to 2018. I expect Tesla to adjust its 500,000 production goal UP after Model 3's Final Reveal in July. Even Tesla, at least publicly, is underestimating demand for the Model 3. And just like they pulled 500,000 production goal from 2020 to 2018, they will do the same when reservations surge after the final reveal. I laid it out in detail here: Can Tesla Produce 4 Million Cars In 2020? - ValueAnalyst | Seeking Alpha

 

[Rarity]

It is also 7b - 35b is 500% total increase.

Negative. It's a 400% increase.

 

[Reciprocity]

Negative. It's a 400% increase.

First, I hate you.. second.. yes the amount of the increase is 28b and is 400% of the original 7b, but 35b is actually 500% of 7b. Isnt it?

 

[Rarity]

First, I hate you.. second.. yes the amount of the increase is 28b and is 400% of the original 7b, but 35b is actually 500% of 7b. Isnt it?

Don't hate me because I'm beautiful.

The reason why I'm making this point is that I suspect @ValueAnalyst is making the same simple error and so his forecast is incomprehensible. Is he saying that Tesla will produce more than 500k cars in 2018?

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Don't hate me because I'm beautiful.

The reason why I'm making this point is that I suspect @ValueAnalyst is making the same simple error and so his forecast is incomprehensible. Is he saying that Tesla will produce more than 500k cars in 2018?

With 500k cars, Tesla will have achieved 5x revenue growth from 2016 to 2018, or 400%.

I expect Tesla to produce more than 500k cars in 2018, and more than its current goal of 1 million cars in 2020, as I discussed here.

This is why I expect more than 5x, or 400%, revenue growth from $7B in 2016 to more than $35B in 2018.

I hope this clarifies the math for you.

 

[jbcarioca]

With 500k cars, Tesla will have achieved 5x revenue growth from 2016 to 2018, or 400%.

I expect Tesla to produce more than 500k cars in 2018 as I discussed here.

This is why I expect more than 5x, or 400%, revenue growth from $7B in 2016 to more than $35B in 2018.

I really hope this clarifies the math for you.

Maybe people who wonder should visit your earlier posts so they can understand why the Tesla growth rate will have been unprecedented, at least in the last few decades. The great wonderment is that Tesla will still break growth records even if we assume late delivery and slow buildup for Model 3.

 

[Waiting4M3]

So let me see if I get this:

2016 rev $7B
2017 rev $15.75B, which is 2.25 x 2016, or 125% increase/growth
2018 rev $35.44B, which is 2.25 x 2017, or 125% increase/growth, and also 5 x 2016, and 400% increase (not using growth here since it implies an annual rate)

 

[Rarity]

@Waiting4M3: Yes, that's my interpretation of his forecast.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

So let me see if I get this:

2016 rev $7B
2017 rev $15.75B, which is 2.25 x 2016, or 125% increase/growth
2018 rev $35.44B, which is 2.25 x 2017, or 125% increase/growth, and also 5 x 2016, and 400% increase (not using growth here since it implies an annual rate)

Correct. That's the growth rate if we assume 500k cars in 2018, which is current company guidance.

I expect, however, Tesla to adjust its current guidance UP after Model 3's Final Reveal in July. I believe the company, at least publicly, is underestimating demand for the Model 3.

 

[racer26]

ATH Close = 312.39, April 10.

 

[farzyness]

ATH Close = 312.39, April 10.

Anyone taking bets? Five bucks we close above.

 

[FredTMC]

ATH Close = 312.39, April 10.

I want us to finish HOD and intraday ATH.
Drivr more nails in Shortville's coffin. That town is going BK

 

[Todd Burch]

Anyone taking bets? Five bucks we close above.

Sorry, can't. I have all my money in TSLA.

 

[erthquake]

Wow! Watching the ticker really fun right now.

 

[Tslynk67]

And that's Numberwang!

 

[FredTMC]

I want us to finish HOD and intraday ATH.
Drivr more nails in Shortville's coffin. That town is going BK

Bam!!!

 

[LoL Rick]

My daily call: high of 313, close of 312.

You was wrong!