2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[Navin]

I've still got margin calls for about $137 k due next Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. I'll sell some shares then unless it rebounds before then and reduces my margin calls. No big deal. I did not sell a single share today nor will I unless absolutely necessary

How's your buddy Anne doing? Hopefully - she has a plan to recover whatever losses she incurred

 

[geneclean55]

I agree. There was a lot of volume warring over the $260 mark for an usually long time. And for 45 minutes, the trading range was unusually tight.

From Papafox's helpful post from the last ER, day after (2/23/2017), #535

Today's chart is definitely stronger:

View attachment 225689


We didn't end up at low of day. Hopefully that means something positive.

Also, AH looks better today in comparison.

 

[neroden]

Good info. Does anyone has any ballpark estimates for retail as a percentage of float in Tesla and what percentage of those you could consider real longs?

No way to tell how many retail investors are long-termers.

Total institutional ownership is 62.44%. Add 20.5% for Elon and other insiders, that's about 83%, so retail holdings are probably on the order of 17% of the shares outstanding.

 

[TrendTrader007]

How's your buddy Anne doing? Hopefully - she has a plan to recover whatever losses she incurred

We will survive

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

No way to tell how many retail investors are long-termers.

Total institutional ownership is 62.44%. Add 20.5% for Elon and other insiders, that's about 83%, so retail holdings are probably on the order of 17% of the shares outstanding.

Retail is 17% + short interest.
All those short sales must have gone to someone, no?

 

[adiggs]

Retail is 17% + short interest.
All those short sales must have gone to someone, no?

For sure. I take @neroden's comment as guessing that the strong retail longs are 17%, and the 20% shares sold by shorts have gone to weak longs. H'mm - that's about a 50/50 assumed split.

In the absence of other information, seems like a reasonable guess to me. I wonder how much of that 17% are active participants here in this forum

If true, then its suggests the functional float that shorts have borrowed from is 50% right now. Absent a signed guarantee that Tesla was filing for bankruptcy tomorrow, the number of floating shares and shares short by itself, would be enough to convince me not to open a short position, or to close a short position if I currently had one. Can you say "overcrowded trade"?

 

[neroden]

For sure. I take @neroden's comment as guessing that the strong retail longs are 17%, and the 20% shares sold by shorts have gone to weak longs.

No, I'm not guessing that. I just hadn't bothered to add in the shares sold short, another 19% of shares outstanding. That puts retail investors at 36%.

I think there are so many "weak long" institutions I'm not sure it matters how many retail holders are "in for the long haul". 62.44% institutional ownership, and I think only about 30.62% of that is "in for the long haul". So I think about 31.82% is "weak long" institutions. This is enough for the short sellers (19%) to cover with, though it's tight.

 

[D-egg-O]

I bought some 5/12 puts ahead or ER as short term volatility insurance. Sold them all today. Not risking the unknown of the price bouncing back. Put the gains to good work by adding to my core position and some Jan19 calls.

 

[TNEVol]

Bought at $295.03. Previous order at $307 didnt fill so cancelled before ER. Wish I could have bought more.

 

[myusername]

oil is crashing

 

[LargeHamCollider]

Renowned manufacturing expert Matthew DeBord: Tesla just made a disastrous pivot on the Model Y

 

[racer26]

Renowned manufacturing expert Matthew DeBord: Tesla just made a disastrous pivot on the Model Y

He seems to have completely forgotten the possibility of Y's platform being used on a next generation S, which by that point will be way overdue

 

[22522]

Maybe they see that the luxury market does not have the moat and have chosen a different margin path.

The people who put miles on cars usually can't afford to live close to work, so the Tesla vision is volume focused on the heart of the market.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

This video during Tesla IPO may be why Jim Cramer is so emotionally volatile on Tesla and keeps switching his passionate opinion.

Start at 00:40.

 

[DurandalAI]

Well, I thought I had remembered moving my stop loss limit to $290 but it looks like I had it set at $300, so I'm currently all cash again. Now the wait to see how low it goes before I pop back in. As others have mentioned, $270 might be the floor over the next couple of weeks, then I expect that M3 news in June/July to bring things back in the upwards trend again.

I contradicted myself. After things seemed to level out, I ended up buying back my position at $294, hopefully things will slowly creep back up.

 

[Todd Burch]

My best guess is that yesterday will be seen as a bit of an overreaction and the stock will climb back a bit. But I only anticipate climbing back maybe $2 today.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Today there are even less shares available for shorting than yesterday.

I am looking forward toward SP conquering $300.

 

[Richgoogol]

This is definitely a more encouraging read, hard to come across them these days.
Tesla Has a Lot More in Store Than the Model 3

 

[vgrinshpun]

This video during Tesla IPO may be why Jim Cramer is so emotionally volatile on Tesla and keeps switching his passionate opinion.

Start at 00:40.

Good find. Gives a new meaning to the definition of "cult" stock.

 

[racer26]

This is definitely a more encouraging read, hard to come across them these days.
Tesla Has a Lot More in Store Than the Model 3

You know what I think part of the problem is?

I think nobody alive today really remembers what the giant automakers who crank out millions of cars per year looked like when they started.

They look at Tesla and say you can't possibly multiply your output by 5x in a year's time.

When Henry Ford started up the moving assembly line 100 years ago, there was a step change in production output. It is not a gradual growth over time.