Note to my self: Always buy the dip on day after ER.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
- Status
It's kind of sad in a way. I took some profits earlier when we hit ATH thinking I'd buy those back in at 270. Looks like it's not happening for awhile. I'm sure others were thinking the same thing. Oh well, can't complain too much.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
I believe that most of strength of the SP is due to M3 ramp optimism. If that is correct , and there are no public glitches in the interim I think that the SP will be higher in June, after the M3 reveal event.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
All that it might take to cause a serious temporary dip is a publicly known glitch in the M3 ramp. That could happen at the shareholders meeting, or the next ER
DurandalAI
Member
I had a stop loss that was at 300, and then I bought back in at 294 yesterday. I wasn't trying to play the market, that stop loss was there as I honestly didn't expect it to drop so far. If I did, I would have sold back when it hit the 325+ level. It ended up inadvertently netting me some extra, even though it wasn't my goal. I'm glad to see it go back up though, and that I didn't wait for a 270 like I originally was thinking it would go down to. (I had a limit order set ready to pounce)
Wanted to share a quick and dirty chart that I've been using to gauge buy/sell triggers for my core holdings.
I've create a high/low market cap scenario in 2025 for TSLA, extrapolated a share price, and literally drew a line from Jan1 2025 all the way down to the last major dip to $178. The three scenarios are as follows:
436bn market cap in 2025 - share price of $2,800 (red line)
624bn market cap in 2025 - share price of $4,000 (blue line)
1092bn market cap in 2025 - share price of $7,000 (green line)
Essentially, if the thesis is that Tesla will be x $s in market cap in 2025, it would very loosely (like super loosely) follow a path all the way to that market valuation. This enables me to get a decent sense of where the stock lives in relation to those targets. If it crosses the red line, it suggest that I should add to my core holdings. If it's anywhere between the red line and green line, I should ride along with it and use LEAPS to try and play the swings. If it passes the green line, I should sell a portion (or the entire) set of holdings.
This is about as simple and stupid as it gets, but for the long game I think it gives me a solid point of reference to understand if the stock price jives with Tesla's path to world domination, and if an action should be taken based on said perception.
NOT AN ADVICE.
I've create a high/low market cap scenario in 2025 for TSLA, extrapolated a share price, and literally drew a line from Jan1 2025 all the way down to the last major dip to $178. The three scenarios are as follows:
436bn market cap in 2025 - share price of $2,800 (red line)
624bn market cap in 2025 - share price of $4,000 (blue line)
1092bn market cap in 2025 - share price of $7,000 (green line)
Essentially, if the thesis is that Tesla will be x $s in market cap in 2025, it would very loosely (like super loosely) follow a path all the way to that market valuation. This enables me to get a decent sense of where the stock lives in relation to those targets. If it crosses the red line, it suggest that I should add to my core holdings. If it's anywhere between the red line and green line, I should ride along with it and use LEAPS to try and play the swings. If it passes the green line, I should sell a portion (or the entire) set of holdings.
This is about as simple and stupid as it gets, but for the long game I think it gives me a solid point of reference to understand if the stock price jives with Tesla's path to world domination, and if an action should be taken based on said perception.
NOT AN ADVICE.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
"Latest from our partners" = "Here's some articles written by boneheads on our affiliate
Hmmm, it might be an interesting task for people with technical analysis skills: examine the correlation between the number of posts by myusername on a day and the stock price movement of the day. It feels like a strong inverse correlation (if the price is down, his post count is up)...
He did well calling the run up through February. His advice since then has quite frankly been garbage.
" but but but .... what's happening .... it's not supposed to keep going up!"
ValueAnalyst
Closed
I have also ignored myusername and mmd. They are here to spread FUD and distort discussion to the short side.
Best TMC move I ever made.
Last edited:
ValueAnalyst
Closed
I like this strategy, except for this: You're assuming no more equity raises, which I think is reasonable, but also no stock buybacks in the next eight years, which I believe is unreasonable.
Tesla is closer to Apple's I-have-too-much-money-and-I-don't-know-what-to-do-with-it problem than most realize. It's not in 2018, 2019, or 2020, but it's closer than you'd think.
I backed up the truck on Sept 440's and June 350's yesterday, and being up 50-60% in a day, decided I'd be clever and sell 2/3rds around 11am, to buy back next week.
Now I'm sitting here hoping for a repeat of last quarter's Monday after so I can reload closer to $300. That feels weird.
Reciprocity
Active Member
Telsa will not have I-have-too-much-money-blah-blah in our lifetimes because Elon wont stop at cars. Planes, trains, tunnels with electric sleds, Solar roads, solar windows, you know all the stuff that will seem obvious when you are installing your new Solar driveway.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
sure that'd work in terms of adjusting your weighting to TSLA, but what happens if TSLA starts a short squeeze, closes just above your upper limit, you sell all shares, then it triples due to short squeeze? After last earnings report, I think the likelihood of a short squeeze in 2017 has increased (although still not highly probable).
I have a similar strategy but it's one guided by valuation rather than price level, and one main difference: I don't expect to lower my allocation below 50% at any point, unless stock goes to $500+ billion market cap in the next three years, which is possible but unlikely.
I strongly believe that a number of factors (including FUD spread by shorts) have converged to make TSLA a unique opportunity for the next decade.
Last edited:
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
- Article
