ValueAnalyst
Closed
Mostly major items: Model 3 setback, FSD delay beyond 1H18, Elon health etc.
I have a long list that I continuously monitor with automated keyword searches.
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Mostly major items: Model 3 setback, FSD delay beyond 1H18, Elon health etc.
I have a long list that I continuously monitor with automated keyword searches.
Reciprocity
Active Member
That's a good way to sell all your stock because of fake news. Note to self, if I want cheap shares I should publish that Elon is an actual alien and he returned home.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Automated keyword searches notify me, but I make the final decision.
The point is: I very rarely change my view on a company, and the decision factors are always long-term, fundamental, based on an analysis of price vs. value guided by detailed bottom-up research, as well as microeconomics, game theory-based competitive analysis, and isolated from macroeconomics and my emotions.
I have a preset game plan that dictates my position weighting at each price point, so I know what my position weighting will be at say $400, $500, $600, or $200 per share, and when the stock price moves there, I wouldn't care if Elon gave birth to an alien.
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The TSLA share price appears to have begun a little slide this afternoon right about the time that CNBC's Phil LeBeau in response to a question answered that a solar roof on a car would never supply enough power to actually run the motor. Of course that is true, but perhaps some traders were disappointed to learn that.
Just prior to that James Albertine of Consumer Edge Research had been discussing the prospects for Tesla solar roofs.
CNBC: Tesla's solar roof hits the market
What LeBeau said I do not see shaking up the investment world. What Albertine asserted as if it were a given, that this new product (at least the level of technology to be installed for the next several years) is not about going off the grid but rather lowering your electric bill, that might have been a negative catalyst for the stock. Albertine has been one of the few consistently rational analysts, but what he said seems inconsistent with at least what Tesla is implying.
fwiw, I think it is valid to question how robust the Solar Roof will be for various consumers, i.e., how many, if any, will it allow them to go off the grid completely, vs. needing the backup of the grid. I didn't see anything explicit from Tesla on this. I would imagine Tesla will be quite conservative re their recommendations on capability of active panel installment, and whether to disconnect from the grid, otherwise, there will be some very understandably unhappy customers down the road, along with media criticism.
Yeah... I can imagine worse scenarios. I think on average it's seven years between the market selloffs of 20% or greater. At least in the immediate term, the most recent top performers tend to get hit considerably harder than the market as a whole in these selloffs. The market is already pretty high on a historical basis and the last bear market ended just over seven years ago. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying to expect some theoretical 7 year clockwork event, that is, it's less likely there will be a major selloff in the next 6 months than there will be, but it's possible. For those of us looking to hold at least into the middle of the next decade, it's more likely than not we'll see such a selloff. As a buy and hold investor, I don't have much of any concern about this, but, I think it's worth considering that the option playing game is far more likely than not to lose soundly at least once because of a market-wide event regardless of Tesla's execution.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
And it only takes once to wipe off someone who goes in 100% into OTM calls. Be careful folks!
ValueAnalyst
Closed
My thought is that we'll breach $335 up by the final reveal event, absent any ramp-up related negative developments. I don't think the market can wait to bid the stock up until first deliveries.
If the valuation was already higher, I would think differently, but given the current valuation, this is how I see it panning out.
MODERATOR INPUT
It's been so exciting in the market that I'm sure none of you noticed, but -
your Moderator has been AWOL for over two weeks. So there.
And now I'm back. So double there.
And some of you have been very bad boyz 'n grilz in that time but, given what's happened to the stock prices of both TSLA and NVDA I happen to be in a very very good and forgiving mood so yer all off the hook.
But I couldn't pass up rescuing my would-be response to this post from Tuesday - none of you supposèd whiz kids caught this:
By your reckoning, then, the "#" number of figures I'm playing with is about to be #0.
Oh my.
It's been so exciting in the market that I'm sure none of you noticed, but -
your Moderator has been AWOL for over two weeks. So there.
And now I'm back. So double there.
And some of you have been very bad boyz 'n grilz in that time but, given what's happened to the stock prices of both TSLA and NVDA I happen to be in a very very good and forgiving mood so yer all off the hook.
But I couldn't pass up rescuing my would-be response to this post from Tuesday - none of you supposèd whiz kids caught this:
However many [figures Racer26 is playing with] it is, it's about to be an order of magnitude larger
By your reckoning, then, the "#" number of figures I'm playing with is about to be #0.
Oh my.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
my apologies. what's the rule on that one?<===Which one? That you didn't notice I was gone?
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Pretty important trading day tomorrow. Will either be a double-top and likely short-term down-trend or a push for ATH.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
And I hope it's noted that though there were some minor rough patches we moderated ourselves quite well.
whether or not you believe in any of my conspiracy theories... you have to find this "magic" to be interesting. a 20 day trendline accounting for probably 200 million in volume with a crash of an ER... snapping directly back to this line... and for 3 days now is the exact resistance line both up and down.
IMHO, the setup Tesla is offering with max of 2 powerwalls is only sufficient for daily shifting of generation and usage differences. If you want to go entirely off-grid you have to be prepared for the worst-case scenario, which will depend strongly on geographic location. Here, around Toronto, you can easily have a 2 week winter period with insufficient sunshine, which means you would need a battery pack that can supply enough power for 2 weeks of usage. For my house in winter that would require about 300kWh, which needs about 21 powerwalls not 2 !
ps: you also need to think about the case when a thick layer of snow on your roof blocks the sun for weeks!
Powerwall - pah. I make do with a PowerPACK-worth of batteries in my off-grid system here at 63ºN (PPack1: about 110kWh). AND a 30kW generator. But we also know how efficiently to reduce electrical demand when we get day after day of grim gloom, so the genset rarely runs.
So we're not wholly fossil-fuel-free, but our intake is absolutely minimal. Even more off-topic, over the next days I'll be upgrading our solar arrays to a nameplate 10,330W - almost the size of our Arizona array (which is for a far larger house).
I should carve out this entire discussion, but the solar panel/tile news is close enough to relevancy for investor discussions that it will stay. I entreat all here to realize, however, that there are productive and very knowledgeable discussions re same elsewhere on TMC.
So we're not wholly fossil-fuel-free, but our intake is absolutely minimal. Even more off-topic, over the next days I'll be upgrading our solar arrays to a nameplate 10,330W - almost the size of our Arizona array (which is for a far larger house).
I should carve out this entire discussion, but the solar panel/tile news is close enough to relevancy for investor discussions that it will stay. I entreat all here to realize, however, that there are productive and very knowledgeable discussions re same elsewhere on TMC.
Then you just need a couple of PowerPacks. And for me they allowed 10 Powerwalls...
Didn't Elon say that they could put defroster grids on the tiles?
Waiting4M3
Active Member
In the last month, take out the 3 days before/after the ER, it has been a pretty steady climb of ~$1/day. I think someone like Tencent is accumulating
I'm pretty sure Elon said that there would be an option for heating in the tiles to melt snow/ice. I see no mention of that option in the limited material they have online. That is a major selling point for me as we get 2 foot snow falls from time to time and I have a 2 story house on a hill with a very steep gabled roof.
Krugerrand
Meow
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