2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[Starno]

I am skeptical of ride sharing, and personally I would not loan out my car. There's no way to know what people would use the car for, and I don't want my vehicle impounded if some idiot decides to drag prostitutes into the back seat or sell heroin out of the frunk.

Many people consider their car to be a rolling home, and will never allow it to be used as an automated taxi for god knows what.

Well Airbnb is basically the same concept except it's not a car but a home.... and it's pretty successful.

I'm sure with the rating systems, and different safety system. The risks of having bad experiences will be diminished, and will diminish even further over time.

 

[DragonWatch]

There's a difference between buying a car and being a member of a ride sharing service. I have friends in urban areas who choose not to own a car because it is inconvenient and expensive. For them, public transport and zip cars work well. Their cost is minimal.

In the suburbs and rural areas this doesn't work. If I pay 40k for a car I don't want random people using it. Period. It's not like a zip car that I pay $20 to use for a few hours, and I don't care if the next person to drive it decides to go buy a hit of meth or sell some stolen prescription meds. If the zip car gets impounded or civilly forfeited I don't care. If my 40k car is lost to civil forfeiture Im screwed.

Are you saying there are more meth heads in the suburbs? I hope your not, cause I am moving right now. I completely agree with you that I would not personally lend my MX out to just anyone. Of my neighbors in a rural area, north and south of me I would lend them the car if theirs was broke down and I was not able to take them someplace. Would I lend it to the ass that breaks into our mailboxes, no. But there appears to be a shift taking place, for good or bad. So, for me the court is still in session and time will tell me what is true in this particular case.

If I bought an M3 with dollar signs ($$$$$) in mind, then yes I would lend it out in AutoPilot mode. I would want cameras on board to monitor and be able to track the riders in the event of a crime. If it was a business venture, I would ensure I had insurance coverage to either provide a loaner or all new car in the event of a criminal investigation. I assume the insurance would not be too different than what a taxi driver has today, other than being driverless (added $$?). Again, just saying With the Tesla App, I can follow my wife's driving as she can of mine, so I should be able to track the movement of the M3. The second that car head in the wrong direction, I can notify 911 for assistance ~ it is amazing. We are talking about someone that wants to make money, not people like me. Oh, wait ~ I am a long term bull with Tesla The M3s are not out yet, and it will take time for the money guy to finally get ahold of his copy, so this is not going to happen over night like end of July or something.

Fun Fact ~ The other day while driving and using the map (GPS) we went off the grid ~ or did we??? We were tracking ourselves as we usually do, but in a wilderness area instead of seeing roads, we saw a grid pattern. Just thought it funny that to say we were "off the grid," when "we were actually on a grid"

All I am trying to convey is that time will tell us if this is in fact a major viable shift or not I do not mind being wrong; I am just entertaining the idea. . .

 

[Waiting4M3]

Have you ever driven a 2011 BMW 328i with a naturally aspirated straight six?

My German coworker who owns a S-class, just bought a Leaf, and he can not get over how quickly the Leaf goes and how numb the S-class feels in comparison. The silver lining is that his kids now get to drive a S-class.

 

[Waiting4M3]

View attachment 228131

Flapping in the wind...

~7% off of ATH. I think most gentlemen (and ladies) here would be happy if they can sustain within 7% of their personal "ATH"

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I think most of the estimates on how much a self driving car will earn are way, way off base. Elon seems to agree. My understanding of his position, which I agree with, is that very soon self driving cars will be the norm, and the cost of ride sharing will plummet due to competition between companies.

I respectfully disagree primarily because the demand for autonomous ride sharing will be multiple times (maybe 100x) of supply for at least 3-5 years. Only when supply matches demand will the equilibrium price per mile will gradually decline towards marginal cost, gradually lowering any economic profits available to Model 3 owners and Tesla.

The following publicly available article presents how I value full self-driving.

FSD: How Do I Estimate The Value Of Full Self-Driving? - ValueAnalyst | Seeking Alpha

For the foreseeable future, I expect this tremendous value to be divvied up equally (one-third each) among Tesla (for providing the app/platform where owners and riders meet), the owner of the car (in the form of lower monthly payments), and the rider (in the form of lower price per ride).

Of course I don't have a crystal ball, but this is how I see the future playing out based on currently available information.

I agree with you that Tesla has a significant advantage over UBER and others, because it manufactures its own cars.

 

[Waiting4M3]

I completely agree with you that I would not personally lend my MX out to just anyone. Of my neighbors in a rural area, north and south of me I would lend them the car if theirs was broke down and I was not able to take them someplace. Would I lend it to the ass that breaks into our mailboxes, no

In my experience stealing cars for joy-riding is the most common case, especially for modern cars with geo-tracking like M3 probably will have, stealing it to keep or even to strip is a very dangerous thing to do for thieves, the cops could be on you in matter of minutes or base case hours.

Lets do a mental exercise: What's the difference between some stealing a M3 for a joy ride vs ride-sharing an M3?

• From owner's perspective, someone takes the car to some place, and the car finds its way home. If it was stolen, you're out $x.xx/mile.
• From the rider's perspective, he/she can steal the car, have her/his face on camera/uploaded and reported to the cops, or they can pay $x.xx/mile and not have to worry about this.

If it costs 10 cents a mile, would anyone bother stealing?

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I added shares below $305.

Even though I don't normally use options, absent any negative company-specific fundamental or macro news, I may buy LEAPs if SP drops further.

I'm also considering selling real estate and putting that equity in TSLA if SP is still near $300 in 4Q17.

 

[Curt Renz]

I added shares below $305.

Even though I don't normally use options, absent any negative company-specific fundamental or macro news, I may buy LEAPs if SP drops further.

Thanks for that information. It is far more appropriate for this thread while the share price has been steadily falling today, rather than the numerous commentaries about autonomous cars and ride sharing which belong in other threads.

 

[Curt Renz]

The price pattern today so far has been quite similar to yesterday: A high near the opening, steady pressure downward for hours, and then an apparent bottom leading to a rebound around 14:15-20 EDT.

 

[D-egg-O]

It's amusing to watch the trolls come out of the woodwork when the stock is in the red. Nice try. I AIN'T SELLING.

 

[RobStark]

Morgan Stanley told investors Alphabet's autonomous driving unit Waymo could be worth $70 billion .....

"If we assume that Waymo can grow to ~1% of global miles driven by 2030 (based on a fleet of ~3mn cars each driving ~65k miles/year) and that Waymo can generate on average ~$1.25 in revenue per mile driven, it implies a ~$70bn Waymo enterprise value. More miles/year and revenue/mile could lead to an enterprise value of ~$140bn."

Elon said Tesla Network would cost the customer less than a bus ticket.

$1.25 per mile is way more than a bus ticket. I would never ever pay $1.25 per mile for a taxi service..... Unless I was drunk or needed a ride to the airport. But not as a substitute for owning a private car.

Whenever I see analyst talk about autonomous cars displacing private cars the cost per mile is supper low.

Whenever I see analyst talk about valuations for mobility services companies the revenue per mile is really really high.

 

[elasalle]

The price pattern today so far has been quite similar to yesterday: A high near the opening, steady pressure downward for hours, and then an apparent bottom leading to a rebound around 14:15-20 EDT.

Please Sir, how many times to see this Cramer link Cramer's commentary changes with the market.

 

[Nate the Great]

The price pattern today so far has been quite similar to yesterday: A high near the opening, steady pressure downward for hours, and then an apparent bottom leading to a rebound around 14:15-20 EDT.

Any thoughts on closing SP for Friday?

 

[Curt Renz]

Please Sir, how many times to see this Cramer link Cramer's commentary changes with the market.

I'm not the only one here who occasionally posts that old video as a good reminder. In it Cramer is not commenting on the worth of stocks then or now. He is describing how hedge fund managers could manipulate stocks then or now. New people are constantly coming to this forum and may not have seen that video. I suggest just ignoring it, if you would rather not view it again. However, if you disagree with Cramer's description of stock manipulation, your reasoning would be most welcome.

 

[RobStark]

Agreed. Teenagers will see it as a huge boon to their independence from parents. Why go through all the hassle of begging your parents to pay for driver's ed and they can't even drive alone with their friends until they're eighteen. They can just cheaply hail a car to go to the movies or a concert. Parents can track them and feel safe that they're not on a bus or subway with "undesirables." That will immediately reduce or even eliminate that generation's interest in owning a car when they're off on their own.

Teenagers can do this just as safely using the family Model 3 which can track them and make parents feel safe. At a cheaper price.

 

[mmd]

Elon said Tesla Network would cost the customer less than a bus ticket.

$1.25 per mile is way more than a bus ticket. I would never ever pay $1.25 per mile for a taxi service..... Unless I was drunk or needed a ride to the airport. But not as a substitute for owning a private car.

Whenever I see analyst talk about autonomous cars displacing private cars the cost per mile is supper low.

Whenever I see analyst talk about valuations for mobility services companies the revenue per mile is really really high.

To be fair, they only assume 1% of total miles to be autonomous. This is really a competition to taxi service/Uber.
Then they use the ultra-bubble valuation of Uber to justify $70B market cap. Guess these analysts want to make money for their firms, helping Alphabet do a spin off. There are very few actors in the market without an agenda.

As for myself, I don't see replacing my daily driver with a rental. It is much too cheap to use my own car. At $1+ per mile, my daily commute will cost me north of $40 a day, and some extra wait times.
Besides, I have some personalizations done in the car, as many would. It is like people's own personal space. I don't have to move my things in and out of the car every time I drive my car. I'll need to do that when I take a ride or drive a rental.

I will not be using shared cars during flu seasons either.

However, there is a case for those who rarely use a car. Like the stay at home senior citizens, students, people unable to drive or school kids when parents can't drop them off at their destinations. How big is that market? I don't know.

 

[RobStark]

Well Airbnb is basically the same concept except it's not a car but a home.... and it's pretty successful.

It hasn't eliminated the Hotel Industry much less private homes.

 

[elasalle]

Bought some J18, 390 Calls.

Day bogged down by Waymo (70B) valuations. Now need to wait for one more week. next Fri Jun 2nd (VIP factory tour) - expecting some good news from there on

 

[Reciprocity]

It hasn't eliminated the Hotel Industry much less private homes.

Is AirB&B cheaper and more convenient then owning a car? Apples to Oranges. Car ownership is coming to an end for the vast majority of people. There will be some who own a car, rich people, people with classic or collector cars, people stuck in their ways, technophobes. I fully expect the model 3 I purchase to be the last car I need to purchase. I hate commuting, its a waste of time and shortens my life due to a-holes on the road. I believe human drivers will be outlawed in many places with the next 10-15 years.

 

[erthquake]

Teenagers can do this just as safely using the family Model 3 which can track them and make parents feel safe. At a cheaper price.

True, but that assumes their family has a Model 3, and that mom and dad don't also need it for date night. Plus, a lot of kids go off to college without a car (at least I did). It'll be an uber-cheap Uber, without the potential creepy-driver factor.