2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[Cobos]

I can't believe someone made that thing.

Hey that's my airport...If I'm not mistaken that is the departure hall at OSL.

Cobos

 

[Drax7]

People are going to share everything, right.
House, wife , car, clothing , a pure utopia.

Come on , lets get real.

 

[FredTMC]

Bought some J18, 390 Calls.

Day bogged down by Waymo (70B) valuations. Now need to wait for one more week. next Fri Jun 2nd (VIP factory tour) - expecting some good news from there on

I'm going to the VIP factory tour. I wouldn't expect any news from that tour unless tesla decides to release some factory status updates publicly

 

[Nate the Great]

I wonder if we will bust through 300 tomorrow?

 

[Reciprocity]

Shrug...
Future tense. Selling 2025 dreams? Let's talk again when they already HAVE a system working well,and are willing to sell it to others.
By that time, many others may also have it. Actually, many others do already have it. Like Delphi.

"Tesla has been rumored to be working on its own SoC (System on Chip) optimized for self-driving cars since we reported that the c..."

That and its a software problem, not a hardware problem. The hardware is all commodity stuff at this point.

Edit: And what do you think is harder, building hardware that is capable of 50gflops or building an EV for the masses that doesnt look like crap? I think Waymos problem is they dont make a good EV and neither does Chrysler.

 

[elasalle]

I'm going to the VIP factory tour. I wouldn't expect any news from that tour unless tesla decides to release some factory status updates publicly

Thanks. It will likely be like the last GF tour . I am expecting comments on state of the Model 3 production lines, the production version of Model3 or how close they are to that. A few rumours/news and it will get folks back on track on realizing just how close the July launch event is.
After that I believe there is also a June 6th shareholder meeting.

(Note: I did get totally screwed on similar expectations for Model X launch though .. but expecting this time to be different)

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

I think a lot of bulls are waiting to add. $296-$298 look great thanks to 50 day SMA and lower BB acting as support.

 

[Starno]

It hasn't eliminated the Hotel Industry much less private homes.

My point was that people won't be worried to lend their car, as there are already a lot who lend their home ...

 

[AlMc]

I agree with 'Hewitt': Will consider adding sub $300. Looking for $292.

Though I would prefer it NOT drop sub $300.

I am OK with my position/exposure

 

[RobStark]

Is AirB&B cheaper and more convenient then owning a car? Apples to Oranges.

I am not the one that made the comparison of mobility services to Air B&B.

I expect to be buying cars for another 40 years or so.

I also expect mobility services to take over what is now Uber,Taxis,black car service, a large chunk of public transport miles and a sliver or private car miles.

Much more convenient to take my own car with a my own stuff in it like an extra shirt and tie in case I get ketchup on it. On road trips my own cooler with sodas in it. $20 bill in the glove box in case I forget my wallet on a trip to the grocery store etc.

 

[RobStark]

My point was that people won't be worried to lend their car, as there are already a lot who lend their home ...

My point is that it is a tiny percentage of home owners that lend out their home.

It may be 3x more likely that people lend out their car since it is a much smaller risk than lending out your home. Tiny percentage x3 is still a tiny percentage.

Last poll I saw on TMC said ~10% of people would be willing to lend out their Tesla to Tesla Network. It assumed payment closer to $1.25 per mile like Morgan Stanley assumes than the price of a bus ticket.

 

[erthquake]

I think a lot of bulls are waiting to add. $296-$298 look great thanks to 50 day SMA and lower BB acting as support.
View attachment 228175

I agree. Getting low enough to tempt me into moving some cash into shares earlier than planned. Too good an opportunity to pass up.

 

[Reciprocity]

My point is that it is a tiny percentage of home owners that lend out their home.

It may be 3x more likely that people lend out their car since it is a much smaller risk than lending out your home. Tiny percentage x3 is still a tiny percentage.

Last poll I saw on TMC said ~10% of people would be willing to lend out their Tesla to Tesla Network. It assumed payment closer to $1.25 per mile like Morgan Stanley assumes than the price of a bus ticket.

If only 10% of people would rent out there car, then its a non starter. You would need millions of Tesla's to have enough at 10% to provide the type of coverage required for a ride sharing network to work. How many uber drivers are there? I have seen estimates has high as 500,000 worldwide. Easy math, but Tesla would need to sell 5 million cars at 10%. Maybe by 2021-22. If its much lower then 10% it just wont work because most people wouldnt find a car in their area that was available. Tesla could and would have to pad the network with its own cars, of course it doesnt have to launch in every city, even Uber had to roll out from country to country.

 

[moe.salih]

Seriously, enough of this irrelevant discussion. Move it to the general thread please. It's not that hard to determine what thread to post in.

If only 10% of people would rent out there car, then its a non starter. You would need millions of Tesla's to have enough at 10% to provide the type of coverage required for a ride sharing network to work. How many uber drivers are there? I have seen estimates has high as 500,000 worldwide. Easy math, but Tesla would need to sell 5 million cars at 10%. Maybe by 2021-22. If its much lower then 10% it just wont work because most people wouldnt find a car in their area that was available. Tesla could and would have to pad the network with its own cars, of course it doesnt have to launch in every city, even Uber had to roll out from country to country.

 

[DragonWatch]

I'm not the only one here who occasionally posts that old video as a good reminder. In it Cramer is not commenting on the worth of stocks then or now. He is describing how hedge fund managers could manipulate stocks then or now. New people are constantly coming to this forum and may not have seen that video. I suggest just ignoring it, if you would rather not view it again. However, if you disagree with Cramer's description of stock manipulation, your reasoning would be most welcome.

Thanks for encouraging me to view the video ~ I now feel worse for my high school friend, great pole vaulter, that died in Vietnam my senior year '68. At the same time I thank my god I lived through my career and did not die along the way. It gives whole new meaning to my call sigh MajorBS. Sometimes I wish I was wrong, so wrong

Hanging long by a horn I also believe in the good guy winning, I just hope the good guys still have the true grit to hang in there as Tesla will go back up and up higher still despite all else. I agree there is no fundamental reason down. I have and watch another SP stock in the food industry ~ people must eat. It was down about the same today and yesterday. Tesla and my other stock are almost identical in rise and fall, which tells me it is not the stock, but manipulation when void of major world stage events.

Humm, forgot about British event yesterday, but does not explain Dow up all day.

 

[Waiting4M3]

People are going to share everything, right.
House, wife , car, clothing , a pure utopia.

Come on , lets get real.

People share wife, so wife <> people?

 

[Starno]

My point is that it is a tiny percentage of home owners that lend out their home.

It may be 3x more likely that people lend out their car since it is a much smaller risk than lending out your home. Tiny percentage x3 is still a tiny percentage.

Last poll I saw on TMC said ~10% of people would be willing to lend out their Tesla to Tesla Network. It assumed payment closer to $1.25 per mile like Morgan Stanley assumes than the price of a bus ticket.

Yes tiny amount lend their home, but that tiny amount already represents 12,3 billion dollars in booking revenues in 2016, and it's growing at more than 50% a year. And it's just accounting Airbnb.
-----------

Yes it's about 10% right now, but it will be growing.

 

[TMSE]

crickets.....crickets....

I guess the number of postings here is directly proportional to the stock price performance that day

 

[Dennisj00]

My German coworker who owns a S-class, just bought a Leaf, and he can not get over how quickly the Leaf goes and how numb the S-class feels in comparison. The silver lining is that his kids now get to drive a S-class.

I've had two Leafs and and a 75 S.

Your friend is doing something wrong.

Edit : just reread and realized S-class isn't a model S.

Duh!

 

[MXWing]

crickets.....crickets....

I guess the number of postings here is directly proportional to the stock price performance that day

Why don't you take a short position, post your trade to generate some discussion? You can keep taunting everyone as Tesla rides all the way down to 0.

Every share you short is a year of mommys allowance so you will be rich quick.