2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[austinEV]

Wow, what a day/week/month!

By the way the after hours gyrations are fake, I have a lowball bid in and it isn't firing.

We closed above the daily and weekly Bollinger band... Either we are on an accelerating course up or expect a healthy breather tomorrow.

 

[racer26]

We must be entering short squeeze territory here.... it just keeps going up! Pity most of my options expired friday..... lucky I exercised some of them so I have some stock to ride.

I have a theory which is merely based on feeling:

EVIDENCE
- steady stock rise within clearly defined boundaries
- no pullback, no profit taking. Basically just a continuous climb.
- shorts activity remains very strong with high short interest
- positive market sentiment towards the stock since the beginning of the year. The narrative has been "this is the year of M3".
- little ammo for shorts to combat the rise since not a lot of shares are available for shorting making them vulnerable.

CONSPIRACY THEORY
Someone has set an algo to buy stock in order to cause a steady rise (according to a predetermined growth rate) and squeeze the shorts out.
They are capitalising on relatively low prices and on a generally positive market sentiment that could support the rise and targeting TSLA given the very high short interest and low amount of shares available for shorting.

Too crazy? Resources needed would probably be quite high. Maybe it's Elon?

Couldn't be Elon for two obvious reasons - the vast majority of his wealth is already tied up in Tesla and SpaceX, and if it were Elon, it would be a truly massive SEC violation to do that.

I agree somebody is playing a game here, its just a mystery as to who.

 

[Nate the Great]

The interest rate is climbing.

93,805 2.750 %

 

[tander]

If the M3 launch is a success they'll sell debt, not equity for GF2. Why dilute shares if not necessary, especially with interest rates so low?

Yeah I guess it would depend on the stock price. My take is why do debt if you could do an easy cap raise? If it's pushing 350 or 400 a big cap raise could probably be done with very minimal dilution but I don't know, I guess we'll find out.

 

[racer26]

Couldn't be Elon for two obvious reasons - the vast majority of his wealth is already tied up in Tesla and SpaceX, and if it were Elon, it would be a truly massive SEC violation to do that.

I agree somebody is playing a game here, its just a mystery as to who.

FWIW, I'm still not convinced my theory of it being Trump in some form or other (either personally, through family, or through the Trump Organization) isn't correct. The timing fits.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

I'm hoping we don't hit that kind of increase. We've gone up so much since the Spiegel bottom, that baring a real short squeeze, I should be o.k. At some point, if I'm forced to sell at 300+, I'll take my profits and get back in on a dip....

Nothing against you, but I hope that your hope turns out to be wrong

 

[GoTslaGo]

Just curious, anyone have info on days to cover for shorts right now?

 

[RationalOptimist]

All it takes is for some hedge fund manager or investment bank to actually buy (or drive) a Tesla. When you do, it v quickly becomes obvious, viscerally obvious, that this is the future of the automobile. Suddenly all that fan-love out there for Tesla switches from being indication of weird cult stock to further evidence of inevitable epic disruption on the way. Once you get that TSLA is surely heading north of $1000 within a few years, it's a no brainer to initiate an accumulation strategy. Volume today was 4.9m shares, about 100k more shares than average. That's only $25m more shares than average. Maybe some one wants to build a quarter-billion dollar position. That could mean 10 days like those of the past week or so, driving the price as much as $50 in the process given that there are clearly fewer sellers about. $50 gain compared with the coming $750 gain is neither here nor there.

 

[Papafox]

Just curious, anyone have info on days to cover for shorts right now?

About 8 days, according to this link: Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) Short Interest

That number was predicated on 34M short shares, and the last number I heard was 37.5M shares. On the other hand, volume is picking up, too. So, roughly 8-9 days is a good estimate.

 

[Nate the Great]

Couldn't be Elon for two obvious reasons - the vast majority of his wealth is already tied up in Tesla and SpaceX, and if it were Elon, it would be a truly massive SEC violation to do that.

I agree somebody is playing a game here, its just a mystery as to who.

Silicon Valley Hedge Fund, Google has an unlimited amount of money and a desire to protect EM.

 

[3Victoria]

I can't see it well, but April to mid-May 2015 was a similar steady rise in SP. Just sayin'

 

[esk8mw]

Couldn't be Elon for two obvious reasons - the vast majority of his wealth is already tied up in Tesla and SpaceX, and if it were Elon, it would be a truly massive SEC violation to do that.

I agree somebody is playing a game here, its just a mystery as to who.

Just in case there's any doubt here - it can't be Elon, as any transaction in TSLA stock he makes must be reported on Form 4 within 2 business days of the transaction. We would definitely know about it right away if Elon, any of his other named executive officers or any Tesla Board members were accumulating (or doing anything) with TSLA stock.

 

[Green Pete]

Just in case there's any doubt here - it can't be Elon, as any transaction in TSLA stock he makes must be reported on Form 4 within 2 business days of the transaction. We would definitely know about it right away if Elon, any of his other named executive officers or any Tesla Board members were accumulating (or doing anything) with TSLA stock.

Maybe Apple or Google finally decided to make a buy. VW 2008 all over again sometime soon?

 

[NOLA_Mike]

Ever since closing my short term short puts at 235, I've been in a rut - paralysis by analysis. It's a fine rut to be in as I've held 100% of my shares, but I'm not sure what to do with options.

Best to do nothing when this is the case. At least that's my opinion.

This advice worth what you paid for it...

 

[TrendTrader007]

$TSLA is the new Trump stock so just like BAC and GS and financials doubled within short order, i suspect TSLA about to do the same

 

[TrendTrader007]

$TSLA of course doubling from bottom not from here

 

[LST]

The upward trend is unbroken, up in Europe as of 10:30 MEZ +1.4%, 238.70 €, or 256.53 USD.

If ever the mother of squeezes ( as in Porsche / VW) would happen, are you trading guys (as opposed to me boring buy & hold investor) prepared to profit from it an how ? Having sell orders at ridiculous heights in different steps ? Can somebody compute to what max the SP could top if the +-30m shares short have to be covered ?

I personally am not preparing to do anything as of now, since i am convinced that my selling would mean releaving to a short, something i am not prepared to do...

Thanks for your input.

 

[Nate the Great]

Premarket 256.90.

 

[Tslynk67]

The upward trend is unbroken, up in Europe as of 10:30 MEZ +1.4%, 238.70 €, or 256.53 USD.

If ever the mother of squeezes ( as in Porsche / VW) would happen, are you trading guys (as opposed to me boring buy & hold investor) prepared to profit from it an how ? Having sell orders at ridiculous heights in different steps ? Can somebody compute to what max the SP could top if the +-30m shares short have to be covered ?

I personally am not preparing to do anything as of now, since i am convinced that my selling would mean releaving to a short, something i am not prepared to do...

Thanks for your input.

I'm not a "trading guy", but I have two options from here. Hold for 15 years and retire a millionaire or sell at +/- 500 and buy a house we want for cash; both are good options, but I, or rather my wife, is undecided.

So we're debating right now whether to put a sell order at 499, just in case there's a spike to take advantage of; then re-buy later with other funds.

Don't know...

 

[Bgarret]

Waiting or trading in expectation of a VW/Porsche like squeeze is the investment equivalent of going down to the bodega and buying a lottery ticket. If you can't get exited by a 1 month run from 180-255, you may want to take up MIxed Martial Arts, run with the bulls, or jump out of planes sans parachute....trading is going to be too mundane for your tastes.