2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[ev-enthusiast]

What kind of options expiration is today, only weekly?

 

[GoTslaGo]

What kind of options expiration is today, only weekly?

Yes, only weekly. Next Friday (June 16) is Triple Witching.

FWIW Hirsch indicates that a Triple Witching week is often up in Bull Markets and down in Bear Mkts (for the general market).

 

[Robertj]

Exciting times
Great price increases , based on increased buying pressure
And it doesn't appear to be letting up

 

[WarpedOne]

Forget about Friday pullback. We have entered short-covering territory. SP@Frankfurt is already at €332,2 ($371.59). Going above previous day US close is quite uncommon for Frankfurt so I'd say we have Falcon trend. Question is, is it going for LEO, MEO or maybe GSO?

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I'm adding shares to majority of client accounts as margin becomes equity as SP rises.

Significant position with moderate margin. Always want to keep some dry powder for unforeseen dips.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Forget about Friday pullback. We have entered short-covering territory. SP@Frankfurt is already at €332,2 ($371.59). Going above previous day US close is quite uncommon for Frankfurt so I'd say we have Falcon trend. Question is, is it going for LEO, MEO or maybe GSO?

My favorite are the nerdy jokes.

Nerdier the better.

Make nerdy again.

 

[SBenson]

The data collected from the snap shots of the Fidelity short selling trading screen appear to be diverging from the Markit data posted by @SBenson here. For example Markit data show 1M shares net covering on 5/26/2017, while Fidelity short selling screenshots I took show net 220K shares shorted. I find this *consistent* divergence hard to explain except to assume that data intentionally manipulated by Fidelity to mask the actual activity (and I am not a fan of conspiracy theories at all).

View attachment 230451

As for data today, it shows depletion of 308k shares available to short throughout the day, but based on the above I have no confidence in drawing any conclusions on actual net shorting/covering for the day.

View attachment 230452

From what My IB account shows shares are borrowed only for few days at a time, they are returned and re-borrowed. I don't know if 'shares available to short' within a day shows anything as there is so much of circular activity.

 

[serverguy247]

Can a short squeeze still occur if many of the shorts are fairly "new" ? Will the effect of the squeeze be less? I am a total newbie to all this.

 

[Starno]

Can a short squeeze still occur if many of the shorts are fairly "new" ? Will the effect of the squeeze be less? I am a total newbie to all this.

A short squeeze happen when a disproportionally amount of shorts cover.
Even if fairly " new " shorts are coming in, it doesn't mean anything. There is always shorts coming in, and shorts covering at anytime. What matters is in which proportions.

 

[jhm]

Seriously, can we just pull over and park it at $370 for a while? Ending the year at $370 would not be so bad. Nothing good happens above $440 this year.

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

Seriously, can we just pull over and park it at $370 for a while? Ending the year at $370 would not be so bad. Nothing good happens above $440 this year.

Well, that would kill IV, so writing puts wouldn't be lucrative for me anymore. On the other hand, if IV gets killed then LEAPs become cheap and buying cheap 2020 LEAPS in November would make me a bucket load more than selling a handful of puts for the rest of the year ever would.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Can a short squeeze still occur if many of the shorts are fairly "new" ? Will the effect of the squeeze be less? I am a total newbie to all this.

FWIW, I'm not changing anything in my investment strategy based on an expectation of a short squeeze.

To answer your question: Vast majority of shorts, imo, have been short for a while and at much lower prices.

This is impossible to prove though. Just my educated opinion based on what's more likely.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Seriously, can we just pull over and park it at $370 for a while? Ending the year at $370 would not be so bad. Nothing good happens above $440 this year.

Can you please elaborate? Why do you say "nothing good happens above $440 this year?"

I estimate that the stock's intrinsic value is much higher than $440, considering all likely (not possible product/service opportunities in the next three years, discounted at an appropriate discount rate for execution risk.

I'm not worried about a 40-50% pullback for the foreseeable future unless a significant negative fundamental change occurs.

 

[Starno]

Can you please elaborate? Why do you say "nothing good happens above $440 this year?"

I estimate that the stock's intrinsic value is much higher than $440, considering all likely (not possible product/service opportunities in the next three years, discounted at an appropriate discount rate for execution risk.

I'm not worried about a 40-50% pullback for the foreseeable future unless a seriously negative fundamental change occurs.

I'm guessing it's about calls.

 

[geneclean55]

Another heavy volume morning in the pre-market

 

[SBenson]

Seriously, can we just pull over and park it at $370 for a while? Ending the year at $370 would not be so bad. Nothing good happens above $440 this year.

Not happening jhm. No way.

100B market cap is virtually guaranteed by the end of the year. Only question is how quickly.

My bet is that it will happen by July unveil.

 

[geneclean55]

Actually, HEAVY volume would be more apt.

 

[myusername]

Almost there!

 

[Irishjugg]

42K is already like the official approx base price and we also have like 7.5K tax refund till we hit 200K delivered milestone. But it should not be beyond like 45-50K, else things might be perceived different in the court of public opinion ...

If not already covered by someone else, what you said is incorrect.

42k is the official approx AVERAGE SELLING PRICE, not base price, which is 35k.

 

[WarpedOne]

A short squeeze happen when a disproportionally amount of shorts cover.

A real squeeze happen when Mr. Margin Calls says Hi!