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2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

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Don't forget that hedge funds are dog eat dog, animals. Any credible info that funds that are short Tesla are in trouble and being forced into liquidating, will bring many deep pocketed hedge funds that previously had no position in Tesla rushing in on the long side with the express purpose of squeezing the funds that are in trouble. This probably won't result in long term stock gains, but it could certainly add to the excitement along the way.
 
What's a healthy short interest percentage? I just looked up AAPL, and they have 1.5 - 2 days to cover worth of short interest. Would TSLA short interest have to drop 50-60% for it to be considered normal?

Tough question to answer, but I would consider TSLA short interest (measured in shares short) at 1/2 of today's level to still be high. I'm also a raging bull that sees the possibilities of multiple trillion dollar industries being disrupted, with an increasingly diversifed product line to go after more and more of these.

A more realistic guess is that as long as TSLA is investing earning back into growth (and then some), then ever higher share prices will continue to draw new shorts in for awhile (or previous shorts back for another go at it). After all, if TSLA were a good short back at $180, it's amazing today. If you get out, ignore the company for a few months, and then one day see that it's $600, that might be tempting to come back and try again :)
 
Don't forget that hedge funds are dog eat dog, animals. Any credible info that funds that are short Tesla are in trouble and being forced into liquidating, will bring many deep pocketed hedge funds that previously had no position in Tesla rushing in on the long side with the express purpose of squeezing the funds that are in trouble. This probably won't result in long term stock gains, but it could certainly add to the excitement along the way.

Jeez. Why not take no position if not a fan of Tesla or short something way more obvious? Like a company HALF of Tesla's market cap but does way more useful things like apply dog ear filters on your photos?
 
Not only. I have also remarked those past few weeks an increased awareness of TSLA in my entourage that previously barely knew Tesla is an automaker.
I'm pretty sure a lot of "private deep pockets" are coming in the train.

My guess is that momo traders figured out that shorts are trapped, and decided to pile in. Vicious move.

Edit: I see snapdragon beat me to it.
 
Jeez. Why not take no position if not a fan of Tesla or short something way more obvious? Like a company HALF of Tesla's market cap but does way more useful things like apply dog ear filters on your photos?

I believe it's the fact they're playing with other peoples money, and have to show some return. So many hedge funds chase what they think will bring returns. The more established ones can probably wait things out, but IMHO the smaller, newer ones probably have to "do something". Truth is, many times, as you alluded to, the best option is to "do nothing."

Then again, my wife loves watching Forensic Files. She pointed out to me the story of the hedge fund manager who was found killed (I believe in Mexico?) after constantly losing money. Issue there was there were too many potential suspects, since he lost so much money...
 
Glad Tesla is solving a problem that shouldn't need solving.

I'm sure what is being done has to violate some kind of interstate commerce rules that could be sued up to the Supreme Court.

Indeed, an Interstate Commerce Clause is in the original body of the US Constitution. Tesla has already begun the legal process. They are suing Michigan in federal court. That may end up in the Supreme Court. I'd expect Tesla to win no matter what the political balance of the court. Then all states would have to abide.
 
Can someone provide short drawdown/covering info for Fidelity and/or IB today? I'm assuming part of the lift we're seeing today is covering by shorts, but that's just a guess. Much thanks for info.

The data collected from the snap shots of the Fidelity short selling trading screen appear to be diverging from the Markit data posted by @SBenson here. For example Markit data show 1M shares net covering on 5/26/2017, while Fidelity short selling screenshots I took show net 220K shares shorted. I find this *consistent* divergence hard to explain except to assume that data intentionally manipulated by Fidelity to mask the actual activity (and I am not a fan of conspiracy theories at all).

Snap1.png


As for data today, it shows depletion of 308k shares available to short throughout the day, but based on the above I have no confidence in drawing any conclusions on actual net shorting/covering for the day.

Snap2.png
 
Indeed, an Interstate Commerce Clause is in the original body of the US Constitution. Tesla has already begun the legal process. They are suing Michigan in federal court. That may end up in the Supreme Court. I'd expect Tesla to win no matter what the political balance of the court. Then all states would have to abide.

Actually IIRC there are so many other claims in the case including state law claims that I expect the Court of Appeals may deal with it without reaching the Commerce Clause issue. The 6th Circuit is not an adventurous court.
 
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