2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[22522]

The problem is that you can't step and repeat in time to sell a million cars in the next 18 months. My main point is that it doesn't matter because the green pastures are everywhere and they are wide open for Tesla and we shouldn't fixate so much on fed tax incentives as they did their job and allowed Tesla to crawl, then get on two feet and start walking. Now it's time to run. By 2020 with semi and Y and several gigafactories, they will be sprinting. The last major vehicle I want to hear about is the pickup, because that is game, set, match. I am hoping for a platform that can go from work truck up to box truck. Something that can be flexible enough to have many different configurations.

I like the truck platform.

Listening to people here, it helps sales if people can drive away with a car on the same day they buy it. Most people buy cars that way. I think Elon wants to sell to "most people."

The psychology of the incentive becomes time based as soon as the line is crossed, in say January.

Then it is: "$7500 incentive until the end of June." Not wanting to force all the walk-in sales into a two week window in late June, you start selling to walk-ins on January 1. The production line that is making employee cars never gets turned off or reconfigured once it gets it right. Color variations, yes. Option variations, no.

It is a nice car with a big battery (since people tend to be insecure about that). In other words, the employee car is configured to produce the lowest friction walk-in sale. "Sign here and the car is yours."

The "unnecessary" capital raise this spring could support this sales model.

[Note: this is mostly speculative fantasy that makes a lot of economic sense and is consistent with Tesla's stated objectives. In other words, if they really meant that, they would really do this.]

 

[myusername]

This is on a tear!

06/20/2017 07:55 | Pre-Market $383.75

• Pre-Market High $384.49
• Share Volume 92,883
• Pre-Market Low $378
• Previous Close $369.8

wtf is going on with this stock?

 

[elasalle]

wtf is going on with this stock?

Looks like some FUDsters put some news about Tesla launching in China..

 

[myusername]

A better question is

wtf is going on with you?

well... i'm sitting here watching this stock get pumped for pretty much no reason and then dumped... that's what's going on with me. and it's some real premarket drama.

 

[FredTMC]

Hopefully runs right back up after market open.

 

[SBenson]

well... i'm sitting here watching this stock get pumped for pretty much no reason and then dumped... that's what's going on with me. and it's some real premarket drama.

The dump was inline with indices... there is always lots of drama with TSLA... low volume remarket can get absurd.

 

[Navin]

I've seen this before; the market makers just showed up to work and are going to try to depress the stock price. But like a beachball pushed under water - this thing will bounce really hard once market opens and after MM have had a chance to adjust their positions. This is why a guy like myusername pops up here like some electronic boogeyman to try to stoke fear. Watch and see - then you can trade better next time.

 

[myusername]

The dump was inline with indices... there is always lots of drama with TSLA... low volume remarket can get absurd.

this is not low volume premarket... this is out of the ordinary.

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

Over a half a million shares traded premarket as of 8:46.

 

[FredTMC]

I've seen this before the market makers just showed up to work and are going to try to depress stock price. But like a beachball pushed under water - this thing will bounce really hard once market opens and MM will adjust their positions.

As long as there's no credible news refuting the Bloomberg-sourced story, then yes. This is a bear trap and TSLA should run hard at open

 

[myusername]

As long as there's no credible news refuting the Bloomberg-sourced story, then yes. This is a bear trap and TSLA should run hard at open

oil is crashing.

 

[Drax7]

Billionaires are not analysts
Analysts are not billionaires

Buffett is a hell of an analyst , the supreme analyst in his genre.

 

[Irishjugg]

Great analysis but Africa is pretty poor and Tesla products are premium. Certainly get your point, but Tesla isn't a charity. Part of the reason it's so dark is because it's so poor. Gigafactories will bring prices down but they would need to come down far enough for Tesla to build those micro grids and charge for electricity at a rate that would be both profitable and cheap enough to afford. Just don't see the bang for the buck.

For battery and storage Tesla has the low price currently. Premium or not, on the storage side they are trying to lower the cost and drive prices down.

 

[elasalle]

Roth IRA will not force you to make a required minimum distribution when you turn 70½. Someone made a very nice post about this recently.

My understanding is Roth IRA have some income limits?
There is a back Door IRA (http://www.rothira.com/what-is-a-backdoor-roth-ira ) , but then you need to pay taxes at the time of conversion ..

Any other options for converting or participating in Roth IRA?

 

[elasalle]

oil is crashing.

Writings on the wall . A day will come when Oil crashes, because both China and India are going electric.

 

[Irishjugg]

oil is crashing.

This shouldn't even be considered news anymore.

Of course it is and it's not like the supply problem is going to get better anytime soon either. Wish markets would grow up and recognize the irrelevance of the price of oil to the price f the rest of the market. It's going to be a long slow downhill slide for oil with occasional upswings when numbers come in that aren't as bad as normal and shitty analysts can say "see, it's all fine, the rally is back on, $80 within 2 months!!!!!11one"

 

[winfield100]

For battery and storage Tesla has the low price currently. Premium or not, on the storage side they are trying to lower the cost and drive prices down.

im in for the long haul. AAPL did it's first split 30 years ago on 6/16/1987 and is worth $8,195/share+
We are still in the process of "wiring the world" for communications, and just starting "wiring the world" for electricity.
will this changeover be less than 30 years? will we skip a monolithic grid?
I shall buy another 20 shares today, after "amateur hour", unless there is a "black swan"

 

[Reciprocity]

I like the truck platform.

Listening to people here, it helps sales if people can drive away with a car on the same day they buy it. Most people buy cars that way. I think Elon wants to sell to "most people."

The psychology of the incentive becomes time based as soon as the line is crossed, in say January.

Then it is: "$7500 incentive until the end of June." Not wanting to force all the walk-in sales into a two week window in late June, you start selling to walk-ins on January 1. The production line that is making employee cars never gets turned off or reconfigured once it gets it right. Color variations, yes. Option variations, no.

It is a nice car with a big battery (since people tend to be insecure about that). In other words, the employee car is configured to produce the lowest friction walk-in sale. "Sign here and the car is yours."

The "unnecessary" capital raise this spring could support this sales model.

[Note: this is mostly speculative fantasy that makes a lot of economic sense and is consistent with Tesla's stated objectives. In other words, if they really meant that, they would really do this.]

The problem is not demand, its supply. Tesla cannot make a million cars in the next 18 months. I wish they could. They just cannot. 500,000 would blow away all expectations by an extreme amount given that they are projecting 380k Model 3s for all of 2018. Based on the original assessment of 1M by mid 2018, they would need nearly a multiple of 5x the most optimistic production guidance and then deliver them. They actually have the produce the cars in 5 months because they need to be delivered

I do think they will produce as many S/X to fill the inventory in the US for the mid 2018 deadline for the full Credit. Meaning they could produce as many as 125,000 cars from July 1 of this year to June 30 of next year regardless of pre-orders. That's roughly 30 per store per month. Other then test drive cars, I do not foresee any Model 3s as inventory in that time period. All will be pre-ordered by reservation holders from March.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Baird Reiterates Outperform Rating & $368 PT on Tesla (TSLA); 'We Remain Buyers with Catalysts Upcoming'

Baird reiterates Outperform rating and $368 price target on Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA), as the firm hosted meetings with management.
Analyst Ben Kallo notes a reinforced confidence in the company's position, remaining at the forefront of innovation in the auto industry, citing a focus in three areas 1) electrification 2) manufacturing and 3) autonomy, as management continues to ramp Model 3 production, targeting positive gross margins in fourth quarter 2017.

While investors remain focused on the Model 3 production, the Baird analyst highlights energy storage opportunity as a very underappreciated opportunity, suggesting the company should be able to gain share in the growing energy storage market. Furthermore, TSLA management suggests the company can produce battery pack at roughly half the cost of competitors.

 

[ZsoZso]

I see a strong bullish sign: myusername is freaking out!

ps: Not an advice!