I think it might be worth looking up the price history of Tesla's "release the D" tweet from Elon and the days after the announcement. This time, I have no idea whether the market thinks it already has more than priced in the 3 or not. Maybe with the reality of the event happening, it goes up sharply, maybe it drops considerably. I'm holding all my core shares, because whichever unpredictable way the market sees it in the next month, I'm very confident the stock is undervalued for what the next decade will bring.
Again, a couple of unedited and complete rerun comments from two weeks ago,
#10811
"I don't think anyone can have very much confidence as to just what mix of the following has led to this run into the $380s, most of these items running for months now,
- "market" bidding the stock up on anticipation of the Model 3 launch and some gems in the past few months (i.e. 3 or 4 more GFs to be announced, probably this year)
- "market" as a whole rallying for tech/growth stocks
- a fundamental reassessment of Tesla's value over the last 6+ months by the market as a whole
- traders exaggerating the move. by traders, I don't mean Tesla lovers or haters, but lovers of the opportunity to trade the momentum in either direction that super high volatility like TSLA currently offers
- some amount of short-covering rally
- "market" absorbing Elon's comments last week that were quite suggestive of a much much more bullish aspiration for vehicle sales business (think Toyota volumes, or possibly far more, with Porsche margins) despite a near media blackout in mentioning, let alone thinking through the implications of the ~ultimately 10 to 12 maybe 20 GFs~ comment
- other I'm sure you all can remind me of
My confidence in teasing out what is driving this is so minimal I think of the stock price with a +/-$50 next to it. Only, I'm not so sure if it is currently a $383 +/-$50, $433 +/-$50, or $333 +/-$50 (and that's not even including the range that a potential market selloff would bring, though, not a lasting impact on TSLA).
So what do I do? Same as I did when it galloped from $40 to $90 in days, and then on up to $180 a few months later in 2013. I've sold my trading shares $70 ago, but, as to my core shares, have not let go of a single one as the stock is still below the valuation on future earnings I have modeled... that is precisely I why I held all core shares through 2013 with stock prices that made me a little hyper, and is keeping me holding every one of them now, a bit hyper again, but less so than 4 years ago."
And #10989
"I've seen some discussion of "buying the dip" here,
I think it's worth remembering that our low 3 weeks ago today was $307.81.
As I said yesterday, I have little idea whether the stock price currently is $383 +/-$50, $433 +/-$50 or $333 +/-$50. The bit in those figures I have by far the most confidence in is the +/-$50, and by price, I mean what we will see quoted, not my valuation of the company.
To be clear, I think the shares are currently undervalued for a long term investment (hang onto any core shares!), but, I have seen repeatedly with Tesla and my previous individual stock investment, Celgene, that what seems like a bargain sale/dip, weeks later, sometimes only days later, actually comes to look like the upper realms of the high riding days."