2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[Starno]

I don't think so. I believe that $300-$330 is the bottom.

I think that the reveal, semi reveal, the Gigafactory announcements, and the Q3 ER will all be positive catalysts.

We are going to have a lot of good news with the M3. Especially the first reviews of the car by consumers are going to be really exciting.

Like what do you think is going to happen when topgear, car and driver, whatcar etc. are going to announce the M3 as the best car of its category....

 

[SwTslaGrl]

I added two shares a bit early at 336.85

 

[Irishjugg]

Fairly bad delivery numbers?
Within guidance.

No good news until december? M3 friday, and so on until december.. it is only good news all the way.

I'm trying not to think as an informed person, but as the market. Yes it's within guidance, but it's the low end and the first half of that guidance they over performed.

People that don't follow guidance see >25k Q1, then 22k Q2 and immediately think "uh oh demand is falling"

Model 3 Friday is great, but to an uninformed person 30 in July, 100 in August looks really slow and shitty. We here are all aware of how ahead of schedule this is, but the articles out already are critical of it.

We informed people don't control the price and if we want to try to predict dips and run-ups we can't think with all the information we normal have. Or info is great for long term thinking but is consistently not well suited to short term swings.

 

[Irishjugg]

Oof, I could handle 290 ish. But down to the 250s would be a rejection of the new trading range that TSLA has established since forming a base over several years.

If 150 last year wasn't a rejection of the 240 range at the time, then a short term drop to 250 wouldn't be one on this new 330ish range would it?

 

[Irishjugg]

I don't think so. I believe that $300-$330 is the bottom.

I think that the reveal, semi reveal, the Gigafactory announcements, and the Q3 ER will all be positive catalysts.

I agree with those catalysts, but think they are a bit far off. I also think the GF announcements could easily be spun negatively (all that capex).

I'm partially assuming a bit of macro to take it below 290 to my 250 wild ass guess.

 

[MitchJi]

This Q): IMO (because after all that is what all we both have): The model '3' is osbourning, the S. People want to see the '3', perhaps even drive a '3' before committing to either an S or a '3'. The X should be outselling the S but for some reason is not.

will take some time for the market to understand this though... the bear narrative that competition is coming in 2018/2019/2020 is only partially correct. Yes, there will be offerings. But then we get to compete and really see where things stand. The common assumption is that the major automakers will find it easy to compete against Tesla in all electric long range vehicles. That's not certain.

I believe that two things are certain:
1. It's irrelevant. Does it matter that Honda can compete with Toyota?

2. They can't compete. Tesla can reduce the cost of the MS-MX by using the 2170's produced with GF1 equipment, and reduce the price of AP to almost zero. The other oem's might be able to compete in 2020 with the MS-MX in 2016.

 

[Irishjugg]

We are going to have a lot of good news with the M3. Especially the first reviews of the car by consumers are going to be really exciting.

Like what do you think is going to happen when topgear, car and driver, whatcar etc. are going to announce the M3 as the best car of its category....

Unless there are fit and finish issues. (I don't expect them) Look at what happened with X sure to their initial quality problems. 3 is simpler but the risk of initial quality problems is there until it's been proven that there aren't issues.

We all know that plenty of press companies are ready for the first sign of problems to start a barrage of negative click-bait stories. Just be aware and alert.

 

[dalalsid]

Here is a chart showing almost the entire history of TSLA: I have an open GTC order at ~300, which we may hit:

 

[MitchJi]

I agree with those catalysts, but think they are a bit far off. I also think the GF announcements could easily be spun negatively (all that capex).

I'm partially assuming a bit of macro to take it below 290 to my 250 wild ass guess.

Macro could do it, or actual bad news.

I think that the market will be surprised with the time lines and how little cap-ex is required for the Gigafactories.

Edit Addition:
And the quality of the M3.

 

[jhm]

It looks like bears could be back to their strategy of news nullification. The idea is that, whenever positive news comes out for Tesla, you want to immediately attack the share price so that subsequent reporting is shaded with negative market "reactions." You also want to push out more bearish hit peices. The point hear is to get the public to think that inspite of the latest hype from Tesla, the market is just not buying it. This is a form of gaslighting.

Once you recognize how this game is played, it becomes a lot easier to know when to scoop up shares.

So many people are constantly waiting for the next big catalyst to take the stock up. As if good news will propel the stock up... That is not how it works at all. News nullification means that positive catalysts will be severely attacked. Thus, positive catalysts trigger negative price responses. No positive announcement will go unpunished.

So think of positive catalysts as opportunities to buy at a discount as bears try desperately to reclaim control of the narrative.

July 31 could be a really good day for a bargain.

 

[EinSV]

It looks like bears could be back to their strategy of news nullification. The idea is that, whenever positive news comes out for Tesla, you want to immediately attack the share price so that subsequent reporting is shaded with negative market "reactions." You also want to push out more bearish hit peices. The point hear is to get the public to think that inspite of the latest hype from Tesla, the market is just not buying it. This is a form of gaslighting.

Once you recognize how this game is played, it becomes a lot easier to know when to scoop up shares.

So many people are constantly waiting for the next big catalyst to take the stock up. As if good news will propel the stock up... That is not how it works at all. News nullification means that positive catalysts will be severely attacked. Thus, positive catalysts trigger negative price responses. No positive announcement will go unpunished.

So think of positive catalysts as opportunities to buy at a discount as bears try desperately to reclaim control of the narrative.

July 31 could be a really good day for a bargain.

Great post.

This week reminds me of the stock dropping like a rock last year after Tesla announced its plans to accelerate the Model 3 production ramp to meet the crazy high demand. I thought that was as nutty as the market's reaction now after Tesla announced Model 3 being on time/early.

 

[madodel]

So far it looks like you came pretty close though.

Unfortunately (maybe fortunately for you) we were both correct that Monday's $350 wasn't a buying opportunity.​

But today was.

 

[Richgoogol]

What competition, Bloomberg? You mean it takes Volvo just a few month to setup charging network, get design ready as well as ramp up the production level? Please educate yourself first before writing things like this.
Opinion | Tesla Is Starting to Face Serious Competition

 

[dakh]

Bought some lottery tickets (aug 4 330 calls) to capitalize on a bounce back if it happens. A perfectly irrational response to an irrational market action isn't it?

 

[MitchJi]

But today was.

But as it turns out the $350's were a short term selling opportunity.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I published the following article when TSLA inexplicably dipped on May 4:

1Q17 Results: Buying Opportunity - ValueAnalyst | Seeking Alpha

The stock bottomed that day at $290 and rallied 30% in six weeks.

I believe today provides another "buying opportunity" for long-term investors, especially given the relatively visible outlook for Model 3 timeline.

 

[GoTslaGo]

@Irishjugg, while I would HOPE (key word here) that your predictions of dropping to 250 are wrong, there is a silver lining to your prediction.

Based on my reading of Elliot Waves, if we look at the initial run-up in November to Feb up to 280-290 as wave one, then the following drop to 240 or so would be Wave 2. Then our current run up to 385 would constitute Wave 3.

This would put our current retracement as Wave 4*, UNLESS it breaks the 280/290 support. If it does (as you have posited) and drops to 250 or 260, then this would NOT be wave 4, and what we have been seeing is a long Wave 1 possibly peaking at 385 (which would be SUPER long term bullish).

Just my interpretation of the current SP pattern in my (admittedly amateur reading/interpretation) of Elliot Waves.

* Wave 4 can NEVER drop below the peak of Wave 1. Wave 2 can NEVER retrace more than 100% of wave 1 (i.e. It will never drop below 180 or so for this motive cycle).

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I expect it to get lower than that. Probably 250 or so before it bottoms.

Are you talking about split-adjusted prices?

 

[larmor]

I published the following article when TSLA inexplicably dipped on May 4:

1Q17 Results: Buying Opportunity - ValueAnalyst | Seeking Alpha

The stock bottomed that day at $290 and rallied 30% in six weeks.

I believe today provides another "buying opportunity" for long-term investors, especially given the relatively visible outlook for Model 3 timeline.

And congrats to those who were bold enough to sell at the recent peak and re buy within 30 days, with thanks to GS (i'm not one of them). Proves GS knows how to make money. Does not change the runway, launchpad for tesla...

 

[X Fan]

It looks like bears could be back to their strategy of news nullification. The idea is that, whenever positive news comes out for Tesla, you want to immediately attack the share price so that subsequent reporting is shaded with negative market "reactions." You also want to push out more bearish hit peices. The point hear is to get the public to think that inspite of the latest hype from Tesla, the market is just not buying it. This is a form of gaslighting.

Once you recognize how this game is played, it becomes a lot easier to know when to scoop up shares.

So many people are constantly waiting for the next big catalyst to take the stock up. As if good news will propel the stock up... That is not how it works at all. News nullification means that positive catalysts will be severely attacked. Thus, positive catalysts trigger negative price responses. No positive announcement will go unpunished.

So think of positive catalysts as opportunities to buy at a discount as bears try desperately to reclaim control of the narrative.

July 31 could be a really good day for a bargain.

+1....and GS is a master at market coloring....