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Yeah good post. I have noticed that we all get excited about "catalysts" on the calendar, but they never really move the stock. It's the quiet times in between when suddenly we are "wtf why are we up 2%. news?" It's just in those quiet moments that it goes up. The actual news/announcements/events are blasted into neutralness by Tesla's frothing enemies.
I am trying to hold nothing but cash (not enough...) shares and J19's. To me the "end" of this period of uncertainty is when M3 bottom line results come in and look good. When in May '18 (Q1 ER) or Aug '18 (Q2 ER) when the volumes are good, profit margins are good, and SG&A are in control-- then no one can deny that the M3 was a success. Until then people can psy-ops the market into making the M3 a big failure. Watch when deliveries do start end of this month and in Aug: There will be 2.5 million articles written about how the M3 is a terrible car. It won't be, but it is easy to destroy what smart people are building. In the end, I think it will be financial results, not product excellence that underpins the stock. So we have light at the end of the tunnel, but it might be 12 months before we can confidently predict 400. I am trying to be patient and play the multi-year game.
Bluntly, Model 3 is way ahead of where I thought it would be. First production car exiting the line on Friday... really. The suppliers were only required to supply full-production parts starting in July.
Not good at reading intraday tea-leaves but to my eye there is a broad inverted head and shoulder pattern forming (long right shoulder?).
Looking at the 2-minute chart, it looks like the market did, idiotically, react to the idiotic Goldman Sachs analyst report from Tambourine-o, despite the fact that he has a record worse than putting cash under your mattress.
Let's see how long the nonsense-dip lasts. Maybe I will get some more stock under $320. I would be totally OK with that.
Let's see how long the nonsense-dip lasts. Maybe I will get some more stock under $320. I would be totally OK with that.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Exactly. And July production was nowhere near certain (we thought not even possible) when the stock dipped on may 4, which proved to be an amazing buying opportunity before a 30% rally.. Today the next six to twelve months looks even brighter for Tesla, and we're almost at similar levels..
Correct as Elon stated repeatedly on Conference calls. Unfortunately people do not listen. Even more unfortunately is the amnesia that Wall street has for expectation setting when it's beneficial for the company.
Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
Market moves on anticipation of good news.
News is almost never as good as imagination of people (80-90K M3s in 2017? thousands in July?)
However, once market actually recognizes real impact of M3 in changing the world, we'll be up for couple of years of nice ride. But I don't know when it starts - I'd bet first half of the next year.
I have to think that many investors that properly timed the top around 380 are looking to jump back in as soon as the knife stops falling. Hopefully 330 is it. Getting in now and riding back to 380 is over a 10% return in short order.
Now I only hope it closes above $330...forget $340...
You are correct. However, tomorrow as Scarlett O'Hara would say 'Is another day'.
None of us truly knows what direction the market will go WRT TSLA.
We are in the middle of what I believe is the new consolidation range. $280-380. (330ish). If you are a long term holder buy when your model tells you to buy and forget the daily/weekly/monthly noise. I may be totally incorrect about this range but we each have our own model.
As I have said before, I was happy that we hit $300 before the 3 ramp/end of 2017.
Today was a bad day for SP of TSLA. Tomorrow will hopefully be better.
Muaddid
Member
Hey Gents,
This is completely normal and expected behavior of this stock. Based on historical data we see this every single ER.
One day Tesla has a great price, then when they show their ER the price drops because they don't deliver as much or not have as much money because it all goes back into production improvement, staff training, Etc.. I have seen this happen 3 times just since I bought in.
The fall may continue into tomorrow. Last ER fall went on for about 2 days, but the stock never drops lower than the previous ER bottom number. We will hear some news in a couple of days which will shoot the stock back to the top.
This was all a systematic fair game until the Model 3 hits the street because now Tesla will make real money and will have mass production. Shortly after we will start seeing the Model 3 on the street Tesla will announce Semi's which will help the stock to keep going up.
Do you guys think that the next ER will also have a drop or the Model 3 sales will start giving it a positive rise after earnings reports?
This is completely normal and expected behavior of this stock. Based on historical data we see this every single ER.
One day Tesla has a great price, then when they show their ER the price drops because they don't deliver as much or not have as much money because it all goes back into production improvement, staff training, Etc.. I have seen this happen 3 times just since I bought in.
The fall may continue into tomorrow. Last ER fall went on for about 2 days, but the stock never drops lower than the previous ER bottom number. We will hear some news in a couple of days which will shoot the stock back to the top.
This was all a systematic fair game until the Model 3 hits the street because now Tesla will make real money and will have mass production. Shortly after we will start seeing the Model 3 on the street Tesla will announce Semi's which will help the stock to keep going up.
Do you guys think that the next ER will also have a drop or the Model 3 sales will start giving it a positive rise after earnings reports?
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