2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[CorneliusXX]

It seems that concerns around volume and competition are reigning supreme at the moment. Price will likely continue to drop until Tesla has proven itself. I think J20s are going to be an amazing opportunity. saving all my quatloos until they are out. Market won't know deliveries until Jan 18 while J20s will be out late this year. short term, there is no reason the price won't drop to 250

 

[SpaceCash]

Please just let the markets close already, make this day end.

Nah, the last 10 minutes often bring in strong buying power. I'm still not really worried about SP in the near term, and though I said this yesterday too, I feel we've struck bottom.

 

[ggr]

I think it is time for Adam Jonas to man up and admit he was wrong about the Model 3 timetable, and update his price target tonight. MS beets GS, generally.

 

[GoTslaGo]

Down 58 dollars in 6 trading days, if you need more pessimism in your life.

There is a reason why a bunch of us have been exhorting you to get out of margins.

 

[Richgoogol]

Honestly, I feel bad for those who rushed to sell because this is totally a GS propaganda. Everyone expected there will be a fall in delivery due to the upcoming Model 3. And everyone was talking about cannibalism. So a drop in delivery number isn't news at all. And it wasn't a bad delivery number, it met the lower end of the expectation. So it should really be looked as that Model 3 isn't cannibalizing the sales of MS and X, rather than how GS spinned it.

 

[AlMc]

It seems that concerns around volume and competition are reigning supreme at the moment. Price will likely continue to drop until Tesla has proven itself. I think J20s are going to be an amazing opportunity. saving all my quatloos until they are out. Market won't know deliveries until Jan 18 while J20s will be out late this year. short term, there is no reason the price won't drop to 250

I wish the J20s for TSLA were on the September cycle. Ugh.

 

[Jayjs20]

There is a reason why a bunch of us have been exhorting you to get out of margins.

And lucky for me, I took that advice.

Well, it was also because I have some personal stuff come up. Hopefully it's still low when I regain access to my money and able to buy back in.

 

[SpaceCash]

I wish the J20s for TSLA were on the September cycle. Ugh.

These will be the most lucrative things ever. And I hate hyperbole

 

[Crowded Mind]

I wish the J20s for TSLA were on the September cycle. Ugh.

At least the J20s will be a good consolation prize for any Model 3 execution challenges.

 

[W84M3]

Absolute dump into the close with nsdq dark green...

 

[SpaceCash]

Nah, the last 10 minutes often bring in strong buying power. I'm still not really worried about SP in the near term, and though I said this yesterday too, I feel we've struck bottom.

Never mind. That was all fairly gross

 

[austinEV]

Yuck. My personal worst day ever. Oh well, its just numbers on a computer screen. They will be green soon enough.

 

[Ichabod]

I would by no means have predicted today's action, but I've felt this kind of day was long overdue. Nothing goes up without catching some breath, not even TSLA.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I hate GS...

They're just doing their job. It's up to Elon & Team to prove them wrong, and up to us to focus on the longer term.

 

[geneclean55]

If 150 last year wasn't a rejection of the 240 range at the time, then a short term drop to 250 wouldn't be one on this new 330ish range would it?

I guess there could be a flash crash type scenario down to 250... but to my eye 280-290 seems a more likely lower bound to the new range as that was the long term all-time high SP for many years and should act as more support than 240 which has been traversed many times.

 

[Ichabod]

I also think there has been a bit of excessive "rose colored glasses" type of viewing things lately, especially with the recent announcements. When I read Elon's tweets about Model 3 production, I read it as a meaningful pullback on production expected for 2017 from earlier talk. I saw this as a small negative. When I got on here, people were raving about what great news it was. I know it is exciting to get real, solid number projections straight from the horse's mouth, but these do need to be compared to earlier expectations. You don't have to go back very far on this board to see that the expectations of most posters around here was for much higher production this year than what is now officially projected. This is not end of the world type stuff, but it seems reasonable for there to be some pullback on it. This is certainly a bullish site, so putting the optimistic spin on things is to be expected, and just fine. However, less than stellar numbers are less than stellar numbers, regardless of your overall outlook on the future of this stock.

 

[austinEV]

I also think there has been a bit of excessive "rose colored glasses" type of viewing things lately, especially with the recent announcements. When I read Elon's tweets about Model 3 production, I read it as a meaningful pullback on production expected for 2017 from earlier talk. I saw this as a small negative. When I got on here, people were raving about what great news it was. I know it is exciting to get real, solid number projections straight from the horse's mouth, but these do need to be compared to earlier expectations. You don't have to go back very far on this board to see that the expectations of most posters around here was for much higher production this year than what is now officially projected. This is not end of the world type stuff, but it seems reasonable for there to be some pullback on it. This is certainly a bullish site, so putting the optimistic spin on things is to be expected, and just fine. However, less than stellar numbers are less than stellar numbers, regardless of your overall outlook on the future of this stock.

Uh, I don't think that is the right perspective. Every analyst model I have seen showed negligible to zero M3 in 2017 at all. They are still all officially saying the Tesla is always late so don't expect any M3's this year. THIS BOARD said otherwise, but we are not the opinion of record. It is fair to say that the common, average expectation of markets and analysts was very low volumes, and not in July at all. So for Elon to say that yes, some in July and substantial volumes in 2017, this is confirming the bull case. Only a few enthusiasts were saying large volumes this year.

 

[Chartered321]

Are Goldman Sachs & Co wrong? Can't tell, but given that they cover other companies and they do analysis in a traditional way they have to stick to the old way of analyzing. They didn't see Tesla coming and they totally miss it. Acknowledging that would imply telling the world they are not able to do their work with hybrid / new generation companies of disruptive technologies. Being disruptive is bad for everyone in the established banking / media environment. So eventually I don't blame them. They have to act like this. Once you know and understand, you can outsmart them.
Was today predictable / possible? Yes, of course. Was I prepared with sufficient side money? No, obviously, only a little and in case in a way I'm not comfortable with. That's the short term investing side. Long term investment case can't be more solid. So, enjoy your game folks

 

[SarahsDad]

Coming in Q3 or Q4.

My opinion is that it's a great time in terms of the TSLA SP to maximize your leverage. If you are concerned about the current macroeconomic conditions that might be a good reason to deleverage. I recently rolled all of our portfolio except for one share and two August $370's from J19 $320's to J19 $380's. Paid $62.50, currently at $73/$76 .

In the current market this feels like shooting fish in a barrel. I'm trying to put together a post explaining my reasoning. Hopefully by the end of the week.

Stock price was around 380 back then. So much for shooting fish in a barrel…

 

[smalltownguy]

Please remember, some margin buyers were likely forced to sell at the close. Likely will be a rough week, especially if the Friday revel is late or disappointing. Keep your seat belt fastened!