2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[Jayjs20]

Depends on if we spend some money on the M3, or keep it invested in TSLA, really tough choice here, damn

That's actually been floating in my head for awhile now. Keep the money in TSLA stocks, or buy a model 3 and let it generate cash for me? Not 100% sure which will be better.

 

[larmor]

Well guys who are not TT007, what's the ETA on us becoming rich?

I'm not leveraged, I hold straight shares.

It shouldn't take too long (months to few years) for the market to figure out the scope and value of energy products, which alters the paradigm of telsa motors-- an analogy: like when netflix or amazon decide to make their own content instead of just brokering content.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

In 2018, 7500 avg M3/wk * 50 wks * $45K ASP * 25% GM = $4.2B, Tesla will be lock and loaded in 2018

Consider Model 3 ASP to $47k in 2018.

Also, $3B+ gross profit from Model S/X combined.

Also, Powerpacks will ramp up starting 4Q17. They have high margin as far as I can tell.

Also, autopilot revenue should be very high margin as well.

Also, Solar Roofs will start contributing gross profit in 2H18.

Also, Tesla Semi should start contributing some gross profit towards the end of 2018.

Also... nevermind. You get the point.

Possibly $8B+ in gross profit in 2018.

S&P 500 in 3Q18.

Dividend in 4Q18.

 

[Waiting4M3]

It shouldn't take too long (months to few years) for the market to figure out the scope and value of energy products, which alters the paradigm of telsa motors-- an analogy: like when netflix or amazon decide to make their own content instead of just brokering content.

Amazon can cause panic in an industry by just mentioning that they're moving in, just look at the WholeFoods acquisition. After Tesla get done with the auto industry, we may see that with Tesla as well.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Consider Model 3 ASP to $47k in 2018.

Also, $3B+ gross profit from Model S/X combined.

Also, Powerpacks will ramp up starting 4Q17. They have high margin as far as I can tell.

Also, autopilot revenue should be very high margin as well.

Also, Solar Roofs will start contributing gross profit in 2H18.

Also, Tesla Semi should start contributing some gross profit towards the end of 2018.

Also... nevermind. You get the point.

Possibly $8B+ in gross profit in 2018.

S&P 500 in 3Q18.

Dividend in 4Q18.

Agreed with almost all are potentially possible, excetp dividend, not going to happen if we want GGF 3/4/5/6, that's another $20-30B. Maybe by 2020 Tesla will have that kind of money.

 

[KLC13]

You know a short squeeze is around the corner when this guy talks about covering and shutting up

 

[ValueAnalyst]

3 million shares traded after hours.

Is that even possible?!

 

[ZenMan]

Consider Model 3 ASP to $47k in 2018.

Also, $3B+ gross profit from Model S/X combined.

Also, Powerpacks will ramp up starting 4Q17. They have high margin as far as I can tell.

Also, autopilot revenue should be very high margin as well.

Also, Solar Roofs will start contributing gross profit in 2H18.

Also, Tesla Semi should start contributing some gross profit towards the end of 2018.

Also... nevermind. You get the point.

Possibly $8B+ in gross profit in 2018.

S&P 500 in 3Q18.

Dividend in 4Q18.

Call it $5 Billion net and at a modest 40 price to earnings ratio we have a $200 Billion company. Equals $1200 stock price.

 

[oneday]

I agree it is probably good. But now I'm confused - we were told last time that Y would be on a new platform which would provide the first true example of alien dreadnought efficiency. If Y will instead be built on the human dreadnought Model 3 platform (largely), then does that mean that:

a. we won't get alien efficiency till some subsequent model TBD, or
b. we are already alien efficient with M3, or will be sometime soon??

Those two things aren't mutually exclusive. The platform is only referring to the skateboard deck that houses the battery and drive components. The skateboard deck for M3 is probably already ready for dreadnaught 1.0 it's the rest of the car that isn't.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Agreed with almost all are potentially possible, excetp dividend, not going to happen if we want GGF 3/4/5/6, that's another $20-30B. Maybe by 2020 Tesla will have that kind of money.

The $20-30B figure you put up (is super high first of all), but also will he spent over 3-5 years, whereas gross profit is annual. Further, initial phases of subsequent Gigafactories will multiply gross profit.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Call it $5 Billion net and at a modest 40 price to earnings ratio we have a $200 Billion company. Equals $1200 stock price.

Why in the world would you put only 40x p/e on a company growing triple digits?!?!?!?!

Also, Tesla won't pay any federal taxes in 2018. They have more than enough deferred tax assets to cover their profits.

Maybe I'll buy your shares at $1,200 after I buy @AlMc's at $900.

 

[kbM3]

Consider Model 3 ASP to $47k in 2018.

Also, $3B+ gross profit from Model S/X combined.

Also, Powerpacks will ramp up starting 4Q17. They have high margin as far as I can tell.

Also, autopilot revenue should be very high margin as well.

Also, Solar Roofs will start contributing gross profit in 2H18.

Also, Tesla Semi should start contributing some gross profit towards the end of 2018.

Also... nevermind. You get the point.

Possibly $8B+ in gross profit in 2018.

S&P 500 in 3Q18.

Dividend in 4Q18.

I thought companies didn't start issuing dividends until they stop growing?

 

[Waiting4M3]

The $20-30B figure you put up (is super high first of all), but also will he spent over 3-5 years, whereas gross profit is annual. Further, initial phases of subsequent Gigafactories will multiply gross profit.

If you look at how they updated the plan to pull in MY ramp to 6-month, from the 1-year ramp of M3, I think the 3-5 year build-out schedule is not a safe assumption to make. The GGF1 build schedule is constrained by the cash flow. for GGF3/4/5/6, if Tesla has the cash, I want to see them spend it to build those as quickly as they can. Also I thought GGF1 was $5B, so GGF3/4/5/6 would be $20B if they have the same scale. I allowed margin on the high side just to be conservative.

 

[zdriver]

I thought companies didn't start issuing dividends until they stop growing?

Exactly. There's zero reason for Tesla to issue a dividend... really until the vast majority of the existing fossil fuel system is dismantled and replaced with clean energy generation and use. Just read the mission statement - issuing dividends would do literally the opposite of accelerating the transition to sustainable energy.

 

[Krugerrand]

The way Tesla is acting the probability of a post Earnings Bounce or gap Up is extremely high
I fully expect major positive reaction after hours as well as major upside tomorrow

You called that.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

If you look at how they updated the plan to pull in MY ramp to 6-month, from the 1-year ramp of M3, I think the 3-5 year build-out schedule is not a safe assumption to make. The GGF1 build schedule is constrained by the cash flow. for GGF3/4/5/6, if Tesla has the cash, I want to see them spend it to build those as quickly as they can. Also I thought GGF1 was $5B, so GGF3/4/5/6 would be $20B if they have the same scale. I allowed margin on the high side just to be conservative.

I agree with you that Tesla should accelerate subsequent Gigafactories and that model y will come to market increasing cash need. Keep in mind however what they said last earnings call: model y will cost less than Model 3 ( I think he said half).

Even with all that, unless Tesla announces they'll build 10 Gigafactories from ground breaking to full scale in theee years, they'll be generating more cash than they can possibly spend by 4Q18.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I thought companies didn't start issuing dividends until they stop growing?

Many companies never issue dividends. See Berkshire for example...

But what else is he gonna do with the money? I guess if the stock is still below $800 by 4Q18 he can start repurchasing shares... we'll see.

My primary point is: Tesla has more cash than it needs for 2H17 on its balance sheet, and it will soon start generating more cash than it can possibly spend.

 

[bdy0627]

You called that.

I still don't understand for the life of me how TT007 anticipated this! No one else did, including most chartists.

 

[RobStark]

Even with all that, unless Tesla announces they'll build 10 Gigafactories from ground breaking to full scale in theee years, they'll be generating more cash than they can possibly spend by 4Q18.

How much does it cost to buy the Texas,Arizona,Utah,Connecticut,Virginia and Michigan legislatures?

 

[elasalle]

Apple did not issue dividends when Steve Jobs was in charge.