2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[Tslynk67]

recently bought an inventory car at a huge discount, with that said, in my hunt i noticed plenty of cars that had completely illogical pricing based on what was available new or even against other inventory cars. I feel this has been an issue for a while.

I think there is, or was, a pricing error on many cars, see this thread, for instance:

Model X price drop and other goodies

In my case, I've just traded my P85S for a P100DLX, which apparently had an erroneous pricing (discovered a few days after I pulled-the-trigger), not massive, but lower than it should have been.

This could make it appear that Tesla were hugely discounting, but it's not the case.

Of course when they bundled-up nearly all the P100X options into the base-price this DID cause a drop in inventory prices for those cars, but P100's, for instance, got no such drop.

 

[DurandalAI]

recently bought an inventory car at a huge discount, with that said, in my hunt i noticed plenty of cars that had completely illogical pricing based on what was available new or even against other inventory cars. I feel this has been an issue for a while.

I'm surprised that used Model S prices have stayed above the $44k range for non AP1 cars...
60 kWh Model S 5YJSA1S14EFP33128 | Tesla
That's a 60kWh 2014 Model S with 72,381 miles for $44,000.
I personally think they should discount these to offload them while they can. I'm not sure how a $44,000 Model S can compare to a $44,000 PUP optioned Model 3. Besides the extra storage space, what I plan on getting for $49,000 with the LR battery and PUP on my Model 3 will exceed what that 2014 Model S offers in spades, I just have to wait 8 more months...

 

[ValueAnalyst]

This is a bit of a WAG but I expect TSLA at $345 for the next few days.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I'm surprised that used Model S prices have stayed above the $44k range for non AP1 cars...
60 kWh Model S 5YJSA1S14EFP33128 | Tesla
That's a 60kWh 2014 Model S with 72,381 miles for $44,000.
I personally think they should discount these to offload them while they can. I'm not sure how a $44,000 Model S can compare to a $44,000 PUP optioned Model 3. Besides the extra storage space, what I plan on getting for $49,000 with the LR battery and PUP on my Model 3 will exceed what that 2014 Model S offers in spades, I just have to wait 8 more months...

I think the way that you do, but some people will always prefer a Model S over a Model 3 regardless of logical option/price comparison.

 

[LoveTSLA]

This is a bit of a WAG but I expect TSLA at $345 for the next few days.

Hm, I think it will go over 350....

 

[bdy0627]

This is a bit of a WAG but I expect TSLA at $345 for the next few days.

Based upon hunch? TA? or something else?

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Based upon hunch? TA? or something else?

Mostly hunch, hence the WAG comment. My confidence in my short-term SP predictions is low, although it's been increasing slightly recently.

 

[CaliBear1]

recently bought an inventory car at a huge discount, with that said, in my hunt i noticed plenty of cars that had completely illogical pricing based on what was available new or even against other inventory cars. I feel this has been an issue for a while.

I know that significant price drops and super attractive interest rates have historically signaled a refresh of some sort or a push to reach quarterly sales numbers for Tesla. I wonder if the current push is a lever to keep up S/X sales while production on the 3 goes through its teething (I prefer that to "Hell") phase. If so, perhaps a return to normal interest rates and pricing could be interpreted as a signal that the 3 ramp is about to go vertical. That might be a nice tool to help determine when and whether to add to TSLA position.

 

[D-egg-O]

Back to green. CMI's tweet did nothing.

 

[geneclean55]

Well if you believe that this was the end of the most recent down-leg of the symmetrical triangle as pointed out by @vgrinsphun, and also some twitter guys, then the next up-leg should take us into the 350s. Of course the range is tightening as you would expect from a wedge.

 

[D-egg-O]

Well if you believe that this was the end of the most recent down-leg of the symmetrical triangle as pointed out by @vgrinsphun, and also some twitter guys, then the next up-leg should take us into the 350s. Of course the range is tightening as you would expect from a wedge.

If the pattern continues, how many more days until the wedge converges? About 7?

 

[Waiting4M3]

How much

I know that significant price drops and super attractive interest rates have historically signaled a refresh of some sort or a push to reach quarterly sales numbers for Tesla. I wonder if the current push is a lever to keep up S/X sales while production on the 3 goes through its teething (I prefer that to "Hell") phase. If so, perhaps a return to normal interest rates and pricing could be interpreted as a signal that the 3 ramp is about to go vertical. That might be a nice tool to help determine when and whether to add to TSLA position.

I like you 1st hunch better:

"significant price drops and super attractive interest rates have historically signaled a refresh of some sort"

Occam's razor. We know there is an alleged refresh coming in Oct, everything line up. I say don't over think it. One way this recent discount could be related to the M3, is through the Oct refresh, when M3s starts coming to non-Tesla employees, and the floodgate will open on reviews and public feedback, interest in the M3 may see another spike then, and Tesla will want to have the latest/greatest MS to upsell.

 

[geneclean55]

If the pattern continues, how many more days until the wedge converges? About 7?

Good question... as I have seen the wedge drawn in more than one way. But anywhere between 1-2 weeks seems reasonable to me.

 

[elasalle]

Mostly hunch, hence the WAG comment. My confidence in my short-term SP predictions is low, although it's been increasing slightly recently.

Are you factoring in the possibility that we might hear about the M3's produced (100) in August by Sept 1st?

 

[Waiting4M3]

Good question... as I have seen the wedge drawn in more than one way. But anywhere between 1-2 weeks seems reasonable to me.

hmm, the wedge or MitchJi's wife, who is right.... I dont know if I have enough popcorn to last me till early Sep.

 

[TMSE]

hmm, the wedge or MitchJi's wife, who is right.... I dont know if I have enough popcorn to last me till early Sep.

Eat in slow motion, that should help.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Are you factoring in the possibility that we might hear about the M3's produced (100) in August by Sept 1st?

I am not, by I don't really expect a tweet before 1,000 per week mark either. Given all the risks to the supply chain, I think Tesla will want to play it safe with guidance/signals.

 

[FredTMC]

I am not, by I don't really expect a tweet before 1,000 per week mark either. Given all the risks to the supply chain, I think Tesla will want to play it safe with guidance/signals.

Wouldn't surprise me for Elon to reveal August Model3 production and/or Deliveries. Why? Because he's not revealing ALL of tesla's August deliveries (just Model3)

I think Tesla will deliver the 150 M3's as guided for August because these cars are likely ALL produced without using the new General Assembly Line

In other words, tesla is producing the August M3's in the same manor as the July cars. Hand built Assembly.

September production volume of M3s (guided to 1500) remains to be seen because it'll depend on the Gen Assembly line startup.

 

[3Victoria]

Wouldn't surprise me for Elon to reveal August Model3 production and/or Deliveries. Why? Because he's not revealing ALL of tesla's August deliveries (just Model3)

I think Tesla will deliver the 150 M3's as guided for August because these cars are likely ALL produced without using the new General Assembly Line

In other words, tesla is producing the August M3's in the same manor as the July cars. Hand built Assembly.

September production volume of M3s (guided to 1500) remains to be seen because it'll depend on the Gen Assembly line startup.

Do we have any proof for your suppositions? My guess is that the General Assembly line is tuned from the start to the end or time. The cars will be built up to the point of the tuning, and then may proceed to be partially hand/partial robot built as the positions are able. Each step would be very closely monitored and measured.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Wouldn't surprise me for Elon to reveal August Model3 production and/or Deliveries. Why? Because he's not revealing ALL of tesla's August deliveries (just Model3)

I think Tesla will deliver the 150 M3's as guided for August because these cars are likely ALL produced without using the new General Assembly Line

In other words, tesla is producing the August M3's in the same manor as the July cars. Hand built Assembly.

September production volume of M3s (guided to 1500) remains to be seen because it'll depend on the Gen Assembly line startup.

Now that I think of it, it seems a little odd why they would bother to give an estimate for August at all. 150 cumulative deliveries by August means that 30 in July and 120 in August, is it really that big of a step? seems not. If they hit the August estimate it wouldn't really make the ramp look that much more positive. If they miss it, OTOH, it would mean that they didn't make much progress at all from July to August, and IMO would have a much bigger negative impact. If they don't confirm the Aug #, it would also be construed as negative. So giving an August estimate seems to be a no-win situation.