2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[JRP3]

Yet for those of us with functional memory it is beyond dull and repetitive, especially after 10+ years of the same old arguments.

 

[madodel]

AAPL started a 100% rise three months after iPhone reveal in January 2007, but in my opinion, AAPL was not as inexpensive at the time as TSLA is today. Also, iPhone's potential was not as apparent and as large as Model 3's is. Finally, Tesla is and will be growing faster than Apple ever did.

Apple had been successful with their niche computers, iPods and software so it wasn't like they were banking everything on one new product or line of products like Tesla is. So their stock was doing fine before the iPhone came out. It went ballistic shortly after. The Roadster, S and X are solid products but not the mass market products the 3 will be and I think the S/X are a much smaller niche than Apple computers were. When the 3 is successful TSLA will do even better than AAPL after the iPhone. At least that is my story and I'm sticking to it. Bork the analysts. They are myopic idiots.

 

[Alketi]

AAPL started a 100% rise three months after iPhone reveal in January 2007, but in my opinion, AAPL was not as inexpensive at the time as TSLA is today. Also, iPhone's potential was not as apparent and as large as Model 3's is. Finally, Tesla is and will be growing faster than Apple ever did.

VA, keep in mind that though the iPhone was a (poorly) kept secret, it wasn't revealed a year and a half before production like the Model 3.

And, Tesla has already gone from ~$230 to ~$340, post Model 3 introduction. I think further gains due to the Model 3 will await real Model 3 reviews, production totals, competitor reactions, public opinion, etc.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

VA, keep in mind that though the iPhone was a (poorly) kept secret, it wasn't revealed a year and a half before production.

And, Tesla has already gone from ~$230 to ~$340, post Model 3 introduction. I think further gains due to the Model 3 will await real Model 3 reviews, production totals, competitor reactions, public opinion, etc.

Investors who are large enough to drive SP would have been able to figure out Apple's plans years in advance, just like Tesla. This may be why AAPL also increased 50% from $8 in June 2006 to to $12 in January 2007. Regardless, this does not change my personal estimate that TSLA today is valued less expensively than AAPL back then according to the specific valuation methods I use.

 

[generalenthu]

Wouldn't this use up the battery packs of the parked cars in question? Customers would notice - and not like - leaving their car with a battery charge of 65% and getting back into their car at 60% charge...

Not if it's plugged in. And I doubt the drain would be noticeable over short periods

 

[LoveTSLA]

Yes, it's morning. Just because the stock "appears" to be tanking in the first 30 minutes doesn't mean there's anything happening. It's TSLA. High beta. Morning dip. We should all be used to this by now and stop panicking every time it happens

Yeah TSLA up or down around 5 or so is pretty normal as always. Looks Tsla try's to fight back this whole afternoon and seems doing fine. Good sign?

 

[Todd Burch]

Yeah TSLA up or down around 5 or so is pretty normal as always. Looks Tsla try's to fight back this whole afternoon and seems doing fine. Good sign?

Given that we're in the red currently I wouldn't call it a good sign per se. (No more red, please ).

Although I would say that given lack of any significant news, TSLA is more susceptible to market manipulators. Not until we start getting some concrete news will we start to see continued positive movement. I'm all in right now because I just don't know when that positive news is coming, and I don't want to miss the flight.

 

[Intl Professor]

I still hope my last purchase at $340.25 is the new floor, but the venerable Mitch expects $315 sometime in September, I believe but I don't remember him saying so, because of glitches in extending the debt ceiling extension. (Or, repealing it out right, I hope, because it is contrary to the 14th Amendment.) Repeal ain't gonna happen with this Congress.

 

[Jayjs20]

Good morning. I'm officially back in. Liquidated my robinhood account at 357 two weeks ago, jumped to IB and bought in at 343.77, now sitting at 200% TSLA again. Really wanted to jump in at <335, but this jump had to happen some time. ACATS wasn't available for whatever reason.

I also signed up for share lending, so now I'm helping shorts keep the SP down so I can buy more shares every month. Don't suppose anyone can share their experience with this program? As a percentage, how much are you getting each day? And are you getting that full amount every day (meaning, are all of your shares loaned out in full every day)? Do you also get an amount on days that the market is closed?

 

[austinEV]

down AH due to missile scare?

 

[neroden]

To make my position very clear, I think we're on the cusp of having Level 3. And for a lot of people who drive only in popular metropoli, it'll feel like level 4. That's still decades from Level 5.

I don't know whether Tesla has a lead. But none of the other *electric car* companies seem to be significantly ahead of Tesla, so the electric car advantage should carry Tesla through.

 

[SteveG3]

I wonder if there is any significant effect of these shorting going forward. The share prices mattered when Tesla had to raise cash by issuing shares or convertible bonds, it matters less now that Tesla is done with those and moving on to non-convertible debt. Going forward, once Tesla can self-finance, which may happen even sooner than continuous profitability and SP500 inclusion, then what can these short do that can impact the company and buy&hold long term investors?

agree that if Tesla no longer turns to the markets for financing, that would remove what's the most obvious motive for this theoretical short strategy. perhaps when it's clear that this has happened the short position starts dropping. while there are some secondary motives I can think of for such a short position, they may not be compelling enough to keep the position without that primary motive.

 

[RobStark]

To make my position very clear, I think we're on the cusp of having Level 3. And for a lot of people who drive only in popular metropoli, it'll feel like level 4. That's still decades from Level 5.

I don't know whether Tesla has a lead. But none of the other *electric car* companies seem to be significantly ahead of Tesla, so the electric car advantage should carry Tesla through.

I agree we are on the cusp of Level 3.

I think we will see improvements from there that may seem erratic at times and steady at other times.

I think at this point there will be no clammering for Level 5. Unless you live near Timbuktu.

IMO there is no point in prognosticating Level 5 because it is an estimate on top of an estimate layered on top of another estimate.

3 years from now we can revise estimates saying things are improving crazy fast. Or nope things are progressing at the same pace as the last five years.

 

[Navin]

Well, we can likely rule out North Korea for the next gigafactory site.

 

[bdy0627]

At this rate, I am selling all my position, will buy lower at double digit closer to when TSLA about to unveil semi truck #trustmymath

Great idea. Please let us know when it has bottomed.

 

[austinEV]

down AH due to missile scare?

Just wanted to point out that in the "Market Action" thread, my comment about the market action was ignored but a discussion about what is and isn't various levels of self driving is happening.

 

[TrendTrader007]

I know AH futures gapping down but cup with handle still good and SP closed pretty much at 50 day SMA
Looks good

 

[TrendTrader007]

Symmmetric triangle
Will it break up or down?
Your guess as good as mine
My bet is up because of how well SP is holding with progressively higher lows and fabulous volume trends
Notice dry up volume on down days and vice versa
Plus this is exactly what winning stocks do
They fool everyone into thinking they're about to break down
Just before SP shoots up
I could go on and on but
Bottomline: bullish

 

[TrendTrader007]

I mean that idiot from North Korea could temporarily crash the stock market party but I highly doubt it's anything more than a storm in a tea cup
the sell off may not even last the first hour if that
Gap down open with higher close
been there done that

 

[FredTMC]

Need China to step up and apply pressure to North Korea

Enough is enough.