2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[Drax7]

Glad we are getting a healthy cushion going into what
Could be headline risk , that's the earning report .

 

[Krugerrand]

In fairness, I made that statement before the Model 3 news broke.

My [email protected] calls are loving this action though.

I'm not sure what news you're referring to. I haven't read anything that *we* already didn't know/hear/speculate about. I guess the market may have been a bit slow on the uptake and feel a need to catch up now.

It's been super funny reading yesterday's posts this morning.

 

[TrendTrader007]

Rise of 3% is not a short squeeze by any stretch of the imagination a short squeeze will happen once Tesla start ramping up 5 to 10% on a daily basis for several days in a row and I will know it when I see it

 

[dalalsid]

Rise of 3% is not a short squeeze by any stretch of the imagination a short squeeze will happen once Tesla start ramping up 5 to 10% on a daily basis for several days in a row and I will know it when I see it

This, exclusive on twitter!

 

[Papafox]

So far, the trading is being pulled back towards the top of the upper bollinger band.

 

[Krugerrand]

Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk last year told investors and more than 370,000 customers who put deposits down for a Model 3 that he intended to start building the cars in July 2017. At the time, many analysts and suppliers said the timeline was too ambitious and would be difficult to achieve, pointing to Tesla's history of missing aggressive production targets.

Does everyone believe that?

It's not auspicious that they made a mistake on that start of production. OTOH that is a plausible reason for the current SP surge.

Yes, I believe he 'intended'. No, I don't believe it'll come to fruition.

 

[austinEV]

Tesla is going to trade progressively higher throughout 2017 and shorts will feel the pain on an exponential basis and the eventual short squeeze will happen when the stock is much much higher than what it is now

Yeah I agree. In hindsight we will say the "short squeeze" was the slow burning, continual price support as we break through new highs. Just like 2013. there was no absurd "getting ahead of ourselves" lurch then, and I don't expect one now. Even today might really just close at the daily bollinger band, so like ~$268/+2.5%. That's a really good day. They get strung together, and you get 10% weeks. We had a few 10% days back in 2013 but I expect fewer if any in 2017/2018.

 

[Krugerrand]

Can they do that without the stamping press?

Yes, it's called prototype parts, not production parts. Different.

 

[TrendTrader007]

$TSLA i'm too busy with my day job to really do anything except look at the stock intermittently but I like what I see

 

[TrendTrader007]

Sounds like Tesla is making a Bollinger break out on daily chart

 

[geneclean55]

Forming a bull flag on the 5min chart

 

[TrendTrader007]

Holding call my Tesla as an aside just bought 500 shares of Alibaba

 

[geneclean55]

Hmm, very tight range. Prob going to pop. Which direction though

 

[TrendTrader007]

Tesla and Alibaba I love these two stocks and I cannot get enough of them

 

[dmckinstry]

Tesla is going to trade progressively higher throughout 2017 and shorts will feel the pain on an exponential basis and the eventual short squeeze will happen when the stock is much much higher than what it is now

Thought you'd left. Glad to see you're still around.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Yeah I agree. In hindsight we will say the "short squeeze" was the slow burning, continual price support as we break through new highs. Just like 2013. there was no absurd "getting ahead of ourselves" lurch then, and I don't expect one now. Even today might really just close at the daily bollinger band, so like ~$268/+2.5%. That's a really good day. They get strung together, and you get 10% weeks. We had a few 10% days back in 2013 but I expect fewer if any in 2017/2018.

Not to get too far ahead, up till now people have PPS history to see where support/resistance levels are, what happens when we get above ATH? I imagine moving avgs won't help much either then.

 

[geneclean55]

Not to get too far ahead, up till now people have PPS history to see where support/resistance levels are, what happens when we get above ATH? I imagine moving avgs won't help much either then.

Thats the nice thing about ATH. Longer term moving averages act as support, not resistance once you get above.

 

[1kEE]

Not to get too far ahead, up till now people have PPS history to see where support/resistance levels are, what happens when we get above ATH? I imagine moving avgs won't help much either then.

I'd factor market cap into thinking resistance above ATH.... the 300 SP number will be interesting, and market cap around 50B will be more so (that's around 310)

 

[esk8mw]

Wow, I sure am glad I took my medicine and cut my losses by getting out of my covered calls yesterday, painful as it was.

So far it's behaving as I expected, consolidating right around that 269 mark. The next move will determine whether we stay at this level into earnings or if we nudge up to ATH level right before earnings.

 

[MitchJi]

Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk last year told investors and more than 370,000 customers who put deposits down for a Model 3 that he intended to start building the cars in July 2017. At the time, many analysts and suppliers said the timeline was too ambitious and would be difficult to achieve, pointing to Tesla's history of missing aggressive production targets.

Does everyone believe that?

It's not auspicious that they made a mistake on that start of production. OTOH that is a plausible reason for the current SP surge.

It's like, you have to take the July 1 [2017] date seriously in order for some date a few months later or some number of months later to actually be the real date.

So in order for us to be confident of achieving volume production of Model 3 by late 2017, we actually have to set a date of mid-2017 and really hold people's feet to the fire internally and externally to achieve an actual volume production date of late 2017.

So as a rough guess, I would say we would aim to produce 100,000 to 200,000 Model 3s in the second half of next year.

That's my expectation right now. Yeah, so that's the thing.