2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[FredTMC]

Thanks for Model 3 production discussion. It will have an effect on SP when Q3 delivery numbers are announced on Oct 3rd

I believe Tesla will add color on Model 3 "production status" in this release.
It's certainly of interest to all investors.

Something like "we've produced X Model 3s in Q3. Production ramp is continuing blah blah".

There's precedence in prior quarters delivery updates where theyve added color on various topics.

What I'd really like to know is where they are at with the Model 3 General Assembly Line. Started up yet? If not, when?.. this is the only way to get monthly volume in the thousands.

I agree with TechMaven. Seems as if the gen assembly line didn't start up in early September. Delayed. As tesla said, ramp is tough to predict.
I'll feel much better once the line is confirmed to be "running" and there's no major issues or parts constraints.

Seems to me all the cars so far are built on the "pilot" line. That explains the relatively low volume so far

 

[D-egg-O]

Another talk of symmetrical triangle, classic break-out. Breakout PT - $500. Happy trading...

Trading Nation: Tesla hits record high

Two days in a row... love it.

 

[TrendTrader007]

Boy, wasn't TrendTrader007 crazy to be adding more TSLA in the 330s, 340s, 350s, 360s, and 370s? At such nose-bleeding high prices, ah, er, never mind.

I must confess I did buy my very last lot at the open this AM at $380.25
I had already realized my total share count that I was aiming for as of open Friday so I didn't need to buy anymore today however the charts looked so good that I Couldn't resist it. I'm done buying finally
My untested hypothesis is that TSLA goes anywhere from a low of $676 to a high of $2300 to $2800 by February or March of 2019
In either case I'm satisfied now that I got my full line

 

[ValueAnalyst]

have a look at this post:

2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

in that post you'll see my description of the +/- $20 range off "The Line"... and look where it got rejected today... will it finally break out of this to the upside?... or will it return to the line?... we'll see.

View attachment 248418


View attachment 248417

Right on schedule:

He's buttering you up for "we're too far off the line, SELL!" when TSLA goes perpendicular! Don't fall for it.

 

[TMSE]

I must confess I did buy my very last lot at the open this AM at $380.25
I had already realized my total share count that I was aiming for as of open Friday so I didn't need to buy anymore today however the charts looked so good that I Couldn't resist it. I'm done buying finally
My untested hypothesis is that TSLA goes anywhere from a low of $676 to a high of $2300 to $2800 by February or March of 2019
In either case I'm satisfied now that I got my full line

Do you have any short term price target? Say, by Nov? Thanks

 

[TrendTrader007]

I really believe that TSLA has an extremely high probability of hitting $2800 by March/April 2019 which is approximately 18.5 months from now
The unbalanced and disproportionate risk is to the upside, most definitely
Many longs will sell too soon and will watch from sidelines with deep regret as the stock keeps on making higher highs
Most shorts will be decimated with their portfolios turned to dust
A considerable minority of longs will become multimillionaires (they already are millionaires thanks to TSLA)
A handful of longs will become super rich

Oh, my final thoughts:
The only difference between the thought process of an affluent long and a super rich long is one word:
Imagination

The only difference in action that separates the latter from the former:
Ability and willingness to bet like a drunken sailor

Rest is conversation

 

[TrendTrader007]

Do you have any short term price target? Say, by Nov? Thanks

Hard to say
It'll be much higher and likely/probably well above $450 to $500 but this is total wild speculation on my part
The way I make all my profits in the markets is by long term thinking
Short term is for small timers (unless you're running a portfolio in excess of $100 to $1000 where even 10% return is worth your while)
Big money is made only in longer time frames

 

[D-egg-O]

Ability and willingness to bet like a drunken sailor

I need a boat.

 

[AlMc]

Hard to say
It'll be much higher and likely/probably well above $450 to $500 but this is total wild speculation on my part
The way I make all my profits in the markets is by long term thinking
Short term is for small timers (unless you're running a portfolio in excess of $100 to $1000 where even 10% return is worth your while)
Big money is made only in longer time frames

I disagree with the part I bolded. You can make (or lose) HUGE (pronounced 'YUGE') amounts with ST (even weeklies) *IF* you are lucky. Many people had '20 baggers' in Q1 2013 when Jerome famously said Tesla was poised for 'reckless growth' at the NAIAS. The biggest surge coincided with his announcement occurring in a triple witch week. Most of those people have left. A couple still stop back (ex: 'Luv' and 'sleepyhead' ) from time to time.

Yes, long term stocks with a sprinkling of ST and LEAP calls is safer than the strategy many employed back then but it is not the only way to profit handsomely from TSLA or other high growth companies.

EDIT: NOT Advice

2nd EDIT: Not trying to be offensive, IF I believed as you do that TSLA will be in excess of $2000 by early 2019 I would sell every share I had in November and buy all the J20 $500/600/700s that I could. That would
be the best way to profit in your scenario.

 

[GoTslaGo]

Ouch!

 

[vgrinshpun]

Ouch!

View attachment 248448

$6B could've financed development of the brand new EV platform, with money to spare. That was a mistake of biblical proportions.

 

[kenliles]

I need a boat.

 

[bdy0627]

We are experiencing an early anticipatory upward rise similar to what happened 6 months before the Model 3 launch. Investors/traders anticipated that event well in advance and didn't want to miss that "easy money". Hence, the stock started rising very strongly well in advance to the point that people started wondering just what was driving it. Well, it was the Model 3, but well in advance. Fast forward to the actual Model 3 ramp. Everyone knows it will be massive for TSLA (minus Spiegel, Einhorn, Chanos). The stock is going up big time as it ramps. Investors are not going to wait for the actual numbers. It's late in the game at that point. I don't believe it's because there are some in the know about the specifics of the ramp at this point. It's anticipation.
I think the biggest risk for TSLA this fall is macros, which appear remarkably calm at the moment, but can take TSLA for a huge plunge at any moment. Certainly bad news about the ramp will cause a big hit to the share price but it will also recover fairly quickly since everyone knows the ramp IS going to happen. It's not an "if" question but a "when" question. Likewise, the stock is going up. It's just a "when" question. So why not sink every penny into the stock now? The only reason not to sink all your money into it is to be able to take advantage of substantial dips. Alternatively, leverage fully with DITM LEAPs, shifting to ATM /OTM LEAPs on substantial dips throughout this epic era for Tesla all the way to $10k per week production.

 

[D-egg-O]

Ouch!

View attachment 248448

I bought $900 worth TSLA in 2012. I thought I was smart enough ride the waves (sell high, buy low). I was not successful. I still regret not backing up the truck back then and just sitting tight. I can imagine the Daimler CFO (or some other executive) might have similar feelings.

 

[bdy0627]

I bought $900 worth TSLA in 2012. I thought I was smart enough ride the waves (sell high, buy low). I was not successful. I still regret not backing up the truck back then and just sitting tight. I can imagine the Daimler CFO (or some other executive) might have similar feelings.

I think this is exactly the reason you can go fully long with DITM LEAPs and if there is a painful dip, where it may feel like you screwed up on your timing, you can shift to ATM/OTM LEAPs. Or not and just hold them. When the next one's come out, move to those. If the stock dips again, just keep holding 'em or you will regret it at some point. I went through a solid dip with OTM J18s I bought on the way up and regretted it. I shifted to DITM LEAPs and felt much better about my leverage to where I didn't even need to look at the stock price regularly. Of course, I would have been better off just holding onto my J18s, but I sleep so much better now. What's that worth?

 

[TrendTrader007]

This right now is exactly the best time to buy this stock
This is the very last chance before the SP rockets up big time
I'm extremely super leveraged with margin in excess of a few $
Last call for alcohol
This baby is about to take off big time any day now
Let the games begin

 

[SteveG3]

I really believe that TSLA has an extremely high probability of hitting $2800 by March/April 2019 which is approximately 18.5 months from now
The unbalanced and disproportionate risk is to the upside, most definitely
Many longs will sell too soon and will watch from sidelines with deep regret as the stock keeps on making higher highs
Most shorts will be decimated with their portfolios turned to dust
A considerable minority of longs will become multimillionaires (they already are millionaires thanks to TSLA)
A handful of longs will become super rich

Oh, my final thoughts:
The only difference between the thought process of an affluent long and a super rich long is one word:
Imagination

The only difference in action that separates the latter from the former:
Ability and willingness to bet like a drunken sailor

Rest is conversation

Is that based on a projection of the fair value?

If so, what do you think fair value will be at that point in time?

If not, how did you arrive at that price as being extremely probable in 18.5 months?

 

[vgrinshpun]

In another news from the midst of Tesla short cult: it is not going to end well, or dead man talking.

And please, somebody explain to this guy that if the convention is to name cars by the type of **propulsion** system, i.e. technology involved in converting one type of energy into the mechanical energy required to move a car, then Tesla produces ***electric***, not electronic cars. Yikes!

 

[TrendTrader007]

Is that based on a projection of the fair value?

If so, what do you think fair value will be at that point in time?

If not, how did you arrive at that price as being extremely probable in 18.5 months?

No it's not a value based analysis not at all
It's based on my TA analysis and highly speculative
However I've made a $17 bet based on above
I do believe that most investors are grossly underestimating the powerful surge in SP that is coming imminently for TSLA
I could bet another $0.20 but choose to restrain my wild impulses
Time element is the single most important consideration for me
Price projections are far less important
The great Jesse Livermore talked about the importance of time element
What is the single most important thing in life
Time
Much more significant than money
I'm deeply philosophical about my investments
So if anything my time frame and price projections are totally based on my philosophical take
And some TA

 

[austinEV]

No it's not a value based analysis not at all
It's based on my TA analysis and highly speculative
However I've made a $17 bet based on above
I do believe that most investors are grossly underestimating the powerful surge in SP that is coming imminently for TSLA
I could bet another $0.20 but choose to restrain my wild impulses
Time element is the single most important consideration for me
Price projections are far less important
The great Jesse Livermore talked about the importance of time element
What is the single most important thing in life
Time
Much more significant than money
I'm deeply philosophical about my investments
So if anything my time frame and price projections are totally based on my philosophical take
And some TA

Can you remind us all what the multipliers are on your numbers? *1,000,000?