2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[Mike Smith]

I'm guessing the shorts will do all they can to close as far from the high as possible in an attempt to signal a reversal.

 

[vgrinshpun]

 

[Dennisj00]

I know the feeling. Even my wife who is VERY financially consertive is saying to leave the TSLA stock where it's at and just borrow the money for her Model 3.

I agree! Anybody that sells TSLA to buy a M3 (or anything) will have a very expensive M3!

 

[Todd Burch]

I agree! Anybody that sells TSLA to buy a M3 (or anything) will have a very expensive M3!

This would be an ironic short thesis:

"Model 3 sales will fall off of a cliff because TSLA investors have decided instead to keep their money in TSLA, knowing that TSLA will appreciate rapidly!"

My brain hurts.

Also: In order to understand recursion, you must first understand recursion.

 

[racer26]

385 still pretty nice. Wonder what that means for things like Option sniper's thoughts. We passed 389 intraday...

 

[Words of HABIT]

ICE cars will be akin to smoking. Once in vogue, they will be outcast, banished to the fringe, taboo. People that have ICE cars will be embarrassed to use them, Corolla to Porshe. There will always be a spot for them in quarantine areas to protect the masses.

Many asked which car type is better to withstand Hurricane Irma, ICE or BEV. Give and take? I ask another question. Which car type is better to help prevent the next Hurricane Irma. 100% BEV without hesitation.

The change will happen suddenly. Gone are the days of throwing everything in the same garbage bag. Now we recycle. We evolve. We learn from the past. For the benefit of out Planet and future generations. Next time you change the passenger cabin air filter in your ICE car, look at the soot you are breathing into your lungs. If you had a choice....well now we do.

All big autos are invited to the party, however some will decide to show up late or not come to the party at all.

Check out this story on CNN: Sachs: Big Oil will have to pay up, like Big Tobacco (opinion) - CNN

 

[Words of HABIT]

I remember when TSLA was pushing 300 and I thought, there is no way I'm buying over $300 (I did) so better get in now.
Now we are pushing $400 and I have the same feeling, better get in now as there is no way I'm buying over $400.
Just say'n.

 

[vgrinshpun]

385 still pretty nice. Wonder what that means for things like Option sniper's thoughts. We passed 389 intraday...

 

[Words of HABIT]

Special shout out to Dave T. When I started reading TMC October 2012, Dave T was almost single handedly responsible in getting me to invest in TSLA (first purchase at $29 which at the time was far more riskier than buying today). His commentary was exemplary and still is. I strongly recommend his weekly updates on Tesla Motors. Wishing this forum gets back to simpler times of simply discussing TSLA Market Action. It would nice to have Dave T. back as a regular contributor to this forum, and other contributors limiting their posts to a maximum of three/day.
Free subscription to Dave T's weekly report: Tesla Weekly

 

[Papafox]

Boy, wasn't TrendTrader007 crazy to be adding more TSLA in the 330s, 340s, 350s, 360s, and 370s? At such nose-bleeding high prices, ah, er, never mind.

 

[techmaven]

So... on an ATH day, I am fearful for the next two weeks. The main issue is that we aren't getting the VINs to support the idea that Tesla is in high volume production. They may be building cars with robots, but we haven't seen 4xx+ VINs. Which means they may miss September guidance. Of course, it is possible that they ramp to 1000/wk in the last week, but the likelihood now is that they miss September's 1,500 vehicle guidance. But of course, what really matters is whether or not the vehicle is truly in mass production and if they are truly in high volume production. And whether it is in September or October, that doesn't matter much in the medium term. But in the short term, I don't know we have the evidence to support staying at or above ATH.

So until we get some, be careful out there.

Clearly, Model 3's are getting delivered in more numbers and we are starting to see sightings that indicate a much wider distribution than initially thought. Interestingly enough, it isn't just deliveries to California. I am not sure what that means, but it seems to me pretty bullish that they are delivering Model 3's outside of California at this early stage.

Also, FOMC meeting is tomorrow and Wednesday so extra volatility is on the agenda.

 

[Reciprocity]

So... on an ATH day, I am fearful for the next two weeks. The main issue is that we aren't getting the VINs to support the idea that Tesla is in high volume production. They may be building cars with robots, but we haven't seen 4xx+ VINs. Which means they may miss September guidance. Of course, it is possible that they ramp to 1000/wk in the last week, but the likelihood now is that they miss September's 1,500 vehicle guidance. But of course, what really matters is whether or not the vehicle is truly in mass production and if they are truly in high volume production. And whether it is in September or October, that doesn't matter much in the medium term. But in the short term, I don't know we have the evidence to support staying at or above ATH.

So until we get some, be careful out there.

Clearly, Model 3's are getting delivered in more numbers and we are starting to see sightings that indicate a much wider distribution than initially thought. Interestingly enough, it isn't just deliveries to California. I am not sure what that means, but it seems to me pretty bullish that they are delivering Model 3's outside of California at this early stage.

Also, FOMC meeting is tomorrow and Wednesday so extra volatility is on the agenda.

A guy at my service center said that two VIPs received their Model 3s in the Chicago area. He was pretty vague on the details so take it with a grain of salt.

 

[EinSV]

So... on an ATH day, I am fearful for the next two weeks. The main issue is that we aren't getting the VINs to support the idea that Tesla is in high volume production. They may be building cars with robots, but we haven't seen 4xx+ VINs. Which means they may miss September guidance. Of course, it is possible that they ramp to 1000/wk in the last week, but the likelihood now is that they miss September's 1,500 vehicle guidance. But of course, what really matters is whether or not the vehicle is truly in mass production and if they are truly in high volume production. And whether it is in September or October, that doesn't matter much in the medium term. But in the short term, I don't know we have the evidence to support staying at or above ATH.

So until we get some, be careful out there.

Clearly, Model 3's are getting delivered in more numbers and we are starting to see sightings that indicate a much wider distribution than initially thought. Interestingly enough, it isn't just deliveries to California. I am not sure what that means, but it seems to me pretty bullish that they are delivering Model 3's outside of California at this early stage.

Also, FOMC meeting is tomorrow and Wednesday so extra volatility is on the agenda.

On that note .... VIN 217 has been reported. Pictures of production Model 3s (post 1652).

Still in the toughest part of the S ramp. Will be nice when we are seeing VINs in the thousands.

 

[racer26]

On that note .... VIN 217 has been reported. Pictures of production Model 3s (post 1652).

Still in the toughest part of the S ramp. Will be nice when we are seeing VINs in the thousands.

Of interest: an employee related person I speak to was told to expect delivery end-september, and does not yet have a VIN. Unsure what that means, exactly.

 

[jhm]

Market cap: $64.25B
New ATH at close: $385
New ATH: $389.61

How about we campout at $420?

 

[vgrinshpun]

So... on an ATH day, I am fearful for the next two weeks. The main issue is that we aren't getting the VINs to support the idea that Tesla is in high volume production. They may be building cars with robots, but we haven't seen 4xx+ VINs. Which means they may miss September guidance. Of course, it is possible that they ramp to 1000/wk in the last week, but the likelihood now is that they miss September's 1,500 vehicle guidance. But of course, what really matters is whether or not the vehicle is truly in mass production and if they are truly in high volume production. And whether it is in September or October, that doesn't matter much in the medium term. But in the short term, I don't know we have the evidence to support staying at or above ATH.

So until we get some, be careful out there.

Clearly, Model 3's are getting delivered in more numbers and we are starting to see sightings that indicate a much wider distribution than initially thought. Interestingly enough, it isn't just deliveries to California. I am not sure what that means, but it seems to me pretty bullish that they are delivering Model 3's outside of California at this early stage.

Also, FOMC meeting is tomorrow and Wednesday so extra volatility is on the agenda.

We definitely need to keep an eye on this, but it worth keeping couple of things in mind:

• The guidance was about production, not deliveries, so observing (or not) certain VINs in the wild is a lagging indicator. For a heavily back loaded production/deliveries an absence of certain VINs at this time is not that alarming.
• I do not believe that market will have a fit for production turning out to be less than 1500 cars. I think producing several hundred cars with Tesla assurances on accelerating ramp will be sufficient.

 

[jhm]

Of interest: an employee related person I speak to was told to expect delivery end-september, and does not yet have a VIN. Unsure what that means, exactly.

Build it first, then issue VIN?

 

[D-egg-O]

We definitely need to keep an eye on this, but it worth keeping couple of things in mind:

• The guidance was about production, not deliveries, so observing (or not) certain VINs in the wild is a lagging indicator. For a heavily back loaded production/deliveries an absence of certain VINs at this time is not that alarming.
• I do not believe that market will have a fit for production turning out to be less than 1500 cars. I think producing several hundred cars with Tesla assurances on accelerating ramp will be sufficient.

To add to this, if Model X and S deliveries are greater than they were in Q1 this year, this should also be received as a good sign and mitigate any delivery "misses" on Model 3. Basically proving cannibalization concerns on S & X were moot.

 

[geneclean55]

Obviously good MS/MX numbers are nice. But all eyes will be on the model 3 numbers.

 

[dc_h]

Build it first, then issue VIN?

or to keep the VIN's as secret as possible. a watched pot never boils.