2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[austinEV]

It was a bit overbought in the premarket and settled down a bit....

BTW this made me think of the following strategy. When it's up premarket by like 3 points with no solid reason, I will place sell orders on some of the medium term options at insane prices, and if they trigger, buy back later in the day when the bidding calms down.

BTW, is it just me, or does it feel like there is a slight acceleration of our current trend?

If today holds even at this (+1%) I agree. 6 up days in a row is crazy.

 

[TrendTrader007]

I am not a seasoned trader, nor am I an expert in fully paid share lending programs. However my understanding of how the program worked at Schwab, and after a quick reread of the program overview at Fidelity, it is my understanding that the collateral associated with these programs protects the lender in the event of a default on the part of the BROKER, not the from the party that the shares are ultimately loaned out to. in fact, I can sell my shares online at any time and in the usual manner and the broker is responsible for coming up with the shares to make good on the trade.

In short, I am not buying any of this nonsense about risk of losing a position through default of a short seller in the event of a squeeze.

Regards.

Well I'm not taking any chances so i recalled all my shares. It's better for me to lose a few thousand dollars in interest than millions in potential profits if I lose my position

 

[geneclean55]

It was a bit overbought in the premarket and settled down a bit....

BTW this made me think of the following strategy. When it's up premarket by like 3 points with no solid reason, I will place sell orders on some of the medium term options at insane prices, and if they trigger, buy back later in the day when the bidding calms down.

BTW, is it just me, or does it feel like there is a slight acceleration of our current trend?

Yes. Daily upper bollinger band is acting as support instead of resistance now.

Edit: Hugging the upper bollinger, instead of moving within the previously described channel.

 

[ZenMan]

$TSLA of course doubling from bottom not from here

I am not a seasoned trader, nor am I an expert in fully paid share lending programs. However my understanding of how the program worked at Schwab, and after a quick reread of the program overview at Fidelity, it is my understanding that the collateral associated with these programs protects the lender in the event of a default on the part of the BROKER, not the from the party that the shares are ultimately loaned out to. in fact, I can sell my shares online at any time and in the usual manner and the broker is responsible for coming up with the shares to make good on the trade.

In short, I am not buying any of this nonsense about risk of losing a position through default of a short seller in the event of a squeeze.

Regards.

I'm going to agree with Chickenlittle on this one. Here is a disclaimer from my IB statement: I'm recalling my shares.

Notes

1. Important Notice re: SIPC Protection for Loans of Fully Paid and Excess Margin Securities: Please be aware that if you execute loans of your fully paid or excess margin securities, the provisions of the Securities Investor Protection Act of 1970 may not protect you with respect to the securities loan transaction. Therefore, the cash collateral credited to your account by Interactive Brokers (see above) may constitute the only source of satisfaction in the event that Interactive Brokers cannot return the securities.

 

[Lump]

Is "Musk tunneling" a division of Tesla, SpaceX or a separate entity?

Elon Musk says he will ‘seriously’ start digging a tunnel ‘in a month or so’ to address traffic problems in LA

 

[TrendTrader007]

I'm going to agree with Chickenlittle on this one. Here is a disclaimer from my IB statement: I'm recalling my shares.

Notes

1. Important Notice re: SIPC Protection for Loans of Fully Paid and Excess Margin Securities: Please be aware that if you execute loans of your fully paid or excess margin securities, the provisions of the Securities Investor Protection Act of 1970 may not protect you with respect to the securities loan transaction. Therefore, the cash collateral credited to your account by Interactive Brokers (see above) may constitute the only source of satisfaction in the event that Interactive Brokers cannot return the securities.

I just heard back from Fidelity they're recalling all my shares and returning them ASAP( within 3 business days) and restrict them from further lending. A sigh of relief!

 

[Nate the Great]

@1kEE good point on the pattern of PM being overbought.

 

[racer26]

Is "Musk tunneling" a division of Tesla, SpaceX or a separate entity?

Elon Musk says he will ‘seriously’ start digging a tunnel ‘in a month or so’ to address traffic problems in LA

I'm guessing the tunnel he's talking about is for SpaceX employees to get between the SpaceX building and their parking garage without being run over by lunatic drivers on Crenshaw Blvd. 3 SpaceX employees were hit by a car a month or two ago.

 

[tinm]

Is "Musk tunneling" a division of Tesla, SpaceX or a separate entity?

Elon Musk says he will ‘seriously’ start digging a tunnel ‘in a month or so’ to address traffic problems in LA

Possible tunnel outcomes:

a. Never breaks ground, or does, but never finishes
b. Becomes a marvel of engineering, mitigating the LA traffic sprawl
c. Becomes Elon's folly, solves nothing, and a lot of goodwill turns against him
d. Fills with water from rising sea levels before it can make any difference

Me, I think Elon should focus on Tesla and SpaceX, and I put the worst odds on b.

 

[Lump]

He should have kept the rights to Hyperloop & used the profits to help fund R&D at Tesla & SpaceX.

 

[BornToFly]

I'm not a "trading guy", but I have two options from here. Hold for 15 years and retire a millionaire or sell at +/- 500 and buy a house we want for cash; both are good options, but I, or rather my wife, is undecided.

So we're debating right now whether to put a sell order at 499, just in case there's a spike to take advantage of; then re-buy later with other funds.

Don't know...

I could sell all my TSLA right now and pay off my house. But I don't think that is the smart play. I'm going to hold for 5-10 years and hopefully retire a multimillionaire.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Is "Musk tunneling" a division of Tesla, SpaceX or a separate entity?

Elon Musk says he will ‘seriously’ start digging a tunnel ‘in a month or so’ to address traffic problems in LA

Rocket to Mars, 100k's of cars with cameras and radars spying at everything and calling home, giant factories with whatever in them, digging underground, EM looking more and more like a Bond evil villain every day

 

[MitchJi]

Is "Musk tunneling" a division of Tesla, SpaceX or a separate entity?

Elon Musk says he will ‘seriously’ start digging a tunnel ‘in a month or so’ to address traffic problems in LA

Neither. It's the "Boring Company".

 

[Green Pete]

Possible tunnel outcomes:

a. Never breaks ground, or does, but never finishes
b. Becomes a marvel of engineering, mitigating the LA traffic sprawl
c. Becomes Elon's folly, solves nothing, and a lot of goodwill turns against him
d. Fills with water from rising sea levels before it can make any difference

Me, I think Elon should focus on Tesla and SpaceX, and I put the worst odds on b.

Rights to the tunnels surface thermal energy could be a very good source for utility scale geothermal heating a cooling. I think he's hitting another homer with this.

 

[goinfraftw]

I could sell all my TSLA right now and pay off my house. But I don't think that is the smart play. I'm going to hold for 5-10 years and hopefully retire a multimillionaire.

Hubris is a tough lesson to learn. I'm an eternal optimist for Musk's companies and think along much the same lines as you, but the rhetoric that this is a done deal is far from true. Markets are imperfect like the people that created them.

 

[BornToFly]

I just heard back from Fidelity they're recalling all my shares and returning them ASAP( within 3 business days) and restrict them from further lending. A sigh of relief!

I think you guys are too paranoid. The run up has been steady, and not so fast that the shorts can't meet their legal obligations to cover (aren't they required to have a certain amount of cash to backup their short position?). Without a large catalyst in the next week, I don't think this will change. However, it may be smart to recall shares before ER and 2017 guidance. If Elon guides for $15-20 Billion in sales (very likely), there could be a steep climb since that is twice what the "analysts" are predicting for 2017....

 

[BornToFly]

Hubris is a tough lesson to learn. I'm an eternal optimist for Musk's companies and think along much the same lines as you, but the rhetoric that this is a done deal is far from true. Markets are imperfect like the people that created them.

True, not a "done deal." But I would say 98% probability. I'll take those odds. Worse case scenario I'll sell my shares in 10 years and pay off the house. I can't imagine a LIKELY scenario where TSLA is less than 250 in 10 years. To get to 2,000, TSLA only has to become a $300 Billion company. That would be a complete failure compared to the $1T Elon is predicting....

 

[MMASSASSIN]

Elo one and all. Glad to have found your forum , and as some here have in the past posted the chart from tradertsplayground showing the 2 1/2 arc breakout that spurred about this move, I wish you to pay very close attention to the next level of significance at 260.
This dose not take away our belief that the inevitable parabolic move to 450 is soon coming and within a matter of months reached, but before that happens a re-tracement of 260 is possible. If we pass it we continue higher with the 240 point parabolic action.

 

[KnowLittle]

I think you guys are too paranoid. The run up has been steady, and not so fast that the shorts can't meet their legal obligations to cover (aren't they required to have a certain amount of cash to backup their short position?). Without a large catalyst in the next week, I don't think this will change. However, it may be smart to recall shares before ER and 2017 guidance. If Elon guides for $15-20 Billion in sales (very likely), there could be a steep climb since that is twice what the "analysts" are predicting for 2017....

I would think recalling shares would increase the chance of a tasty squeeze (if only incrementally) in an environment of a rapidly raising SP. And only at the cost of forgoing the current sub-1% lending yield rate... Maybe recall your shares now & re-lend either when the SP stabilizes for a period or when the lending rate pops?

 

[BornToFly]

I would think recalling shares would increase the chance of a tasty squeeze (if only incrementally) in an environment of a rapidly raising SP. And only at the cost of forgoing the current sub-1% lending yield rate... Maybe recall your shares now & re-lend either when the SP stabilizes for a period or when the lending rate pops?

I've been getting 2% or more from Fidelity for a few weeks now.