racer26
Active Member
Rumor discussed on the GD thread, I mistakenly replied in here. Rumor on a podcast over the weekend was that Fremont is on track to run at a rate of 72 cars/hr by the end of July.
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It is completely ridiculous that financial journalists use a chart like this that does not use percentages. It turns out when looking at the chart analysts currently have price targets about 20% under the price. Similarly on April 30th 2013 the analyst targets were about 20% under the price at that time. Coincidence? I think so, but I still argue absolute numbers should never be used when making a comparison like this.
TrendTrader007
Active Member
$TSLA I could say I told you so
but I will be a gentleman and not say it
but I will be a gentleman and not say it
jesselivenomore
Member
So according to this chart, the only other times Wall st and Tesla were this far apart was Jan 2013, April 2013 and August 2013. Were those good times to buy the stock or sell the stock? (hint: analysts suck)
racer26
Active Member
The factory does not operate on anything resembling a 5day/8hr = 40hr work week.
The factory runs near-24/7.
It's probably closer to something like 6 days a week and 16 hours per day. That would be around 7,000 per week and 350,000 per year.
MartinAustin
Active Member
It is completely ridiculous that news sites will post an editorial article like this one day prior to an earnings report. So uninformed! Will be very out of date in 36hrs, but I bet they won't update the article after ER.
racer26
Active Member
Hogfighter
Professional Lurker
So the question of the day.....what's going to happen after tomorrow? I've been burned plenty of times thinking that the ER was very positive, only to find the SP in free fall the next day. Perhaps some protective puts are in order? Or will the shorts finally throw up their arms and capitulate?
jesselivenomore
Member
Morning strength might be attributed to some big moves in the solar names led by SPWR(was up 16% on friday another 9% today). If sentiment is turning in the sector, TSLA may just have gotten a steal on its timing with SCTY.
That, and shorts pissing themselves a day before ER.
That, and shorts pissing themselves a day before ER.
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
Also this gem: "Last week Tesla’s RSI topped out above 83, the highest “overbought” reading in almost four years. "
Aka middle of 2013. LOL.
racer26
Active Member
That was pretty much what happened on 3Q16's ER. It was pretty unquestionably good news, and yet SP didn't react in the way you would have expected.
Hard to say - this close to ATH, though, my gut says that good news has to result in short capitulation to some degree - they have to know that if we continue this rise much further, or pop in any significant way on Model 3 news that they're going to start getting margin calls and send us parabolic.
jesselivenomore
Member
Oh, and analysts were most bullish - their targets almost $120 above share price - in July 2015! You can't make this stuff up.
racer26
Active Member
So what you're saying is that the analyst sentiment is most useful as a contrarian indicator. Shocker.
I think it is more than the bare truth - "Analysts suck" - or that they at least are a lot like people that are trained to only look for one thing. They are falling prey to Maslow's Law - "...if the only tool you have is a hammer, to treat everything as a nail." Not only are their DCF models suspect, but they don't have the ability to leap out of the hammer mode and bring in analysts from utilities, energy, oil/gas, technology, AI, solar, mobility/autonomous driving, manufacturing....to properly model Tesla - this is only the beginning of watching them flail about.
The thing that has to be killing analysts right now - and not just the serial haters at UBS ($160/Sell)/Barclay's ($165/Sell)/Merrill ($155/Sell) is that Elon refuses to announce a Capital Raise, which by inference means that Tesla has an eye-watering lack of need for capital, which means they are on track for Model III, which means.....oh (sugar). The longer Tesla waits to raise Capital at $280, the stronger the case becomes that they have sufficient capital/cash flow from operations to meet their short and intermediate goals...creating more upwards pressure on the stock....strengthening the case that (rinse and repeat).
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