Am I the only one here who expects slightly-disappointing delivery numbers followed by a dip next week ?
My reasoning:
- production was stopped for some time during the quarter (10-14 days shutdown ?)
- Elon's recent twitter-storm pointing out that M3 is not a newer=better car, Model-S is still the top model, suggesting to me that he is fighting the Osborne effect and feels the need to pull some demand levers on the S, he wouldn't need that if Q1 numbers were off the chart
- Tencent buying pushed SP up strongly in Q1, which in turn triggered some window-dressing shopping from Fund managers in the last weeks of March, but that stops by the end of this week with the quarter ending
- Shorts feel the pressure and waiting for their last Hail Marry chance, so any small bad news (less than expected delivery numbers) would give them the signal to launch their last-resort desperate attack
So I sold some of my position this week at these close-to-ATH prices and hoping I will get the chance next week to buy back at a discount due to the dip I expect.
Of course, I might be wrong and may regret this selling if the SP keeps climbing...
Totally possible that the results could be disappointing and there be a dip. But...
1) Who is to say what is disappointing? They guided for 47,000 to 50,000 for 1H, (23,500 to 25,000 per quarter if they produced evenly). 23,500 is a pretty low bar, maybe even sandbagged. With most eyes on M3 develeopments, the market likely will look over a 22,500 "miss" or something. But since they provided no Q1 guidance, it is harder for critics to scream miss at all.
2) Shutdown was short, and was to move in equipment. They could work ahead, be efficient with the shutdown, and then get right back to work. This contrasts with other shutdowns that involved line upgrades or product changes which probably involve more slowdown.
3) Elon tweet storm and osborning: Maybe. I read it differently. The fear was probably for Q2, where it would really make sense to wait-and-see, even for people who would end up getting ans S or X. Also, the S is being repositioned to be higher in the market. There was a long time there where the S was being marketed downmarket, with the 60kWh strippers. They are ending that and saying "The Model S is much better than the Model 3". That needed said, and the timing is right. In other words, maybe just pragmatic product positioning, at the proper time, and not any particular fear.
4) I think you are making the point with the other items that the stock is bid up and therefore primed to fall. indeed it might be and every previous time one has been smart to sell at a local top of 280. Maybe this time too. But eventually there will be a time when it doesn't work. When 280 isn't effective resistance, and the script flips. Surging past 290, shorts freak out and momentum traders observe that this darling stock has broken out-- enthusiastic, even ill-informed longs get in and shorts have cascading stops taken out as they cover at ever higher prices. That is what is at stake, and why ANYONE is long at 280-- it will eventually break out.
