2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[techmaven]

One more thing... we won't know how things are going with the Model 3 ramp until end of July, mostly because Tesla doesn't know. Even then, Tesla can sandbag us as whatever is causing a delay might be fixed quickly or not... we might not get a reading until September. By sometime in September, and certainly by end of September, we should have a much better idea how things are going.

As for the SP, things are still perfect through most of July unless Mr. Musk tips us off ahead of time one way or the other.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

That sounds like excessive conservatism to me!

If I can either see it coming with extremely high confidence, or know it has actually started to happen the first thing I'm hoping to do is to roll some of our J19 $380's to something like J19 $700's (the highest strike available). They are the perfect strategic choice when you are very confident that the SP is going parabolic. For about ten-fifteen of our $380's we could get over 100 $700's! When I had that epiphany about a week ago I thought about buying some at that time. But I'm reading the book about Jesse Livermore and he believes it's better to wait for a movement to start rather than to try to capture the first eighth.

I think that the most likely timing for that is about the most time of the Q4 ER.

Edit Addition:
Our $380's are current at about $70, and the $680's are $9.75, which means 15 $380's would get us about 105 of the $680's. That's options on 10.5k shares. If the SP increases by only $50-$100 we'll be .

How are you preparing for the unknown unknowns?

 

[austinEV]

One more thing... we won't know how things are going with the Model 3 ramp until end of July, mostly because Tesla doesn't know. Even then, Tesla can sandbag us as whatever is causing a delay might be fixed quickly or not... we might not get a reading until September. By sometime in September, and certainly by end of September, we should have a much better idea how things are going.

As for the SP, things are still perfect through most of July unless Mr. Musk tips us off ahead of time one way or the other.

This is an important point for the short term. Everything is perfect and theoretical for the next 6 weeks. After that we have exposure to potential bad news. They will be no big deal in the long run but we will become news sensitive.

 

[ruralectric]

Wait what yourself. This forum, for all it's flaws is an invaluable resource and the best collection of Tesla investing experts you could dream up. To call yourself an expert, you should be reading here.

I have no issue with this forum. It's my go-to place for keeping up on the latest news as well as some very thoughtful opinion, and I have done very well with TSLA over the years in part because of information I got here, and I appreciate the many thoughtful posts that have appeared here over the years.

But the statement by the original poster that "any analyst" who's not reading this forum is somehow lacking is as ludicrous a remark as anything I've ever seen posted here by the @m twins. Do you think that Andrea James couldn't have formed her opinions without the help of this here forum? Or Ron Barron? Ok, if you say so...

 

[Waiting4M3]

How are you preparing for the unknown unknowns?

Unknown unknowns, sounds like an obscure 80s band

 

[Papafox]

Here are my thoughts about today's trading. The dips followed by near-immediate recoveries are similar to the short-selling dips of earlier months. They may instead be dips induced by individuals or institutions with calls expiring today. Although I believe someone tried to get us below 370 today, so far it's not in the cards. Look at the mid-day recovery where TSLA reversed its climb right at the red/green line. Coincidence? No way, someone is selling whatever is necessary to keep TSLA in the red. The real fun will be to see what happens during the final hour today. Market makers tend to make their moves during the final hour in order to suit their needs (if history repeats itself), but there's also the possibility of buyers coming in during that final hour or half hour and giving TSLA a rally. They would do this in anticipation of Monday's amateur hour buying spree. I don't know who will win the tug-of-war, but I suspect we'll be higher next week unless the macros are down, and I'd place my bet at about 374.99 close for today.

Edit: well, it looks like the market-makers are making their play for a lower closing stock price, but TSLA has been known to go into Seabiscuit mode in the final quarter lap and surprise everyone. Hoping for a real horserace. TSLA will need volume to rally, though, because there's a pull downward that must be overcome.

 

[erha]

If Tesla were to decide to raise money, when would we know about it? I mean, is it possible that Tesla is raising money with the help of some banks. That would mean that a lot of shares would be sold short by banks with a guarantee from Tesla that they could buy shares at a given price as soon as the offering were public. I'm just speculating here. What made me think is that the volatility seems extremely low intraday. If somebody has any clues, please speak up

 

[Jayjs20]

Tech stocks dropping off across the board.

 

[Papafox]

Tech stocks dropping off across the board.

Indeed. This is a shame because we could have had such a terrific horserace, otherwise. The macros since 3pm clearly favor the effort of market makers to pull down. Nonetheless, if there's a reversal in the macros TSLA could make a spirited dash for the finish line.

Edit: I see tech stocks heading up now, but TSLA staying pretty flat. I suspect TSLA is caught in the tractor beam now and won't be heading up as we hoped.

 

[Navin]

Nice way to end week.
This is a big deal
Australian grid operator to add 250 kW Tesla Powerpack for "demand response" and blackout prevention

 

[moe.salih]

Nice way to end week.
This is a big deal
Australian grid operator to add 250 kW Tesla Powerpack for "demand response" and blackout prevention

No it's not. 500kWh = ~3 Powerpacks. I'll get excited when I hear about 50MWh+ projects.

Besides, each Powerpack 2 is 50kW / 210 kWh. How are they deploying 250kW / 500 kWh?

 

[MP3Mike]

No it's not. 500kWh = 5 Powerpacks. I'll get excited when I hear about 50MWh+ projects.

No, 500kWhs isn't available with the current Powerpacks. They are 50kW/210kWh each. So a 250kW system would be 5 Powerpacks for a total of 1,050kWhs...

But maybe they were quote with the old version of the Powerpacks... I wonder what they will be getting...

 

[moe.salih]

No, 500kWhs isn't available with the current Powerpacks. They are 50kW/210kWh each. So adding 250kW would be 5 Powerpacks for a total of 1,050kWhs...

Yeah I realized that and edited the post. My point still stands.

 

[MitchJi]

This is an important point for the short term. Everything is perfect and theoretical for the next 6 weeks. After that we have exposure to potential bad news. They will be no big deal in the long run but we will become news sensitive.

I'm sure that many of us are assuming that July means the end of July. But if Elon wants to shaft the shorts Tesla could (maybe) announce M3 production of ~50-500 M3's at the beginning of July.

The opening of orders and deliveries could start in early July.

The believe that when they make the prices of the M3 options public, they will also reduce the MS-MX prices substantially. I believe that that combined with lower than expected M3 options prices will trigger an SP bump.

 

[ggies07]

I'm sure that many of us are assuming that July means the end of July. But if Elon wants to shaft the shorts Tesla could (maybe) announce M3 production of ~50-500 M3's at the beginning of July.

The opening of orders and deliveries could start in early July.

The believe that when they make the prices of the M3 options public, they will also reduce the MS-MX prices substantially. I believe that that combined with lower than expected M3 options prices will trigger an SP bump.

I really freakin hope something like this happens. I've(we've) been on here for years, watching and listening to others deny what the company is trying to do. I want this to sucker-punch the shorts and knock the wind out of them for a year or two.

 

[22522]

Still working to figure this out...

Could it be that the 'only' people selling are shorts?

 

[moe.salih]

Still working to figure this out...

Could it be that the 'only' people selling are shorts?

Some people sell shares to buy options

 

[Krugerrand]

Back in the fall, they ordered enough parts to make 300 cars. They've been testing release candidates for almost three months. Shouldn't they already have a pretty good handle whether all the parts are usable?

Yes, they likely know what parts are good and what parts aren't good. But that doesn't mean all parts are good and ready to be delivered to Tesla on time.

A bad part can be so bad that it still might not be a good part all this time later.

Something could have been missed on a part late in the process delaying a part.

I can go on all day long about what can go wrong when a lot of people are involved I'm a complex product.

 

[Starno]

Yes, they likely know what parts are good and what parts aren't good. But that doesn't mean all parts are good and ready to be delivered to Tesla on time.

A bad part can be so bad that it still might not be a good part all this time later.

Something could have been missed on a part late in the process delaying a part.

I can go on all day long about what can go wrong when a lot of people are involved I'm a complex product.

True.
There is thousands of parts, and each one play a critical role. And it can even be things as " stupid " as the seat belt unwinding part that don't function well ...

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

For Tesla's defense : MS was the first " large production " vehicle they were going to produce. So obviously as a first time, they made mistake. MX they made the mistake of proposing too many options right from the beginning.

I think that those 2 painful mistakes made them learn.

That's why Elon hired Audi's senior director of production last year. To make sure there isn't those issues happening.

I'm sure everything will be fine, except as it's never the case, something minor will happen. And instead of 85k we will have 75k in 2017.

Heh, I remember people saying during the Model X launch that Tesla learned lessons from Roadster and Model S, so X will go smoothly. And Elon was upbeat. And I believed them, it made sense they've learned.
Lost almost all of my money during this period, going deeper and deeper with leverage thinking 'next quarter they'll fix it for sure' That was long 9 months of ramping up and my leaps that were NOT DITM almost got destroyed.
This is not just about learning. Tesla always pushes boundaries of possible, issues are bound to show up and slow them down from the most optimistic scenario, and Elon doesn't do classic expectation management. He's gotten better, but he still describes most optimistic scenario, thinking people will pay attention to everything he said. His words are for a careful listener, and there are few of these nowadays. Even here his words are often taken in way more optimistic way than he said them. And media is looking for soundbites only, and that's how we end up in trouble.