2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[Reciprocity]

JV is more than just math; it's about getting the government's blessing to access a market that is 2-3x the size of US market.

I was pointing out the downsides, not the upsides.

Also, you may be making too many assumptions that are simply unknowable at this time.

Well yeah, that's what I do. The point was that the scary parts of the JV may not be so scary. The FUD would have you believe that a JV will bleed Tesla dry of profits and IP until they are just empty bankrupt husk.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I was pointing out the downsides, not the upsides.



Well yeah, that's what I do. The point was that the scary parts of the JV may not be so scary. The FUD would have you believe that a JV will bleed Tesla dry of profits and IP until they are just empty bankrupt husk.

Gotcha! Sorry for the misunderstanding.

I agree with you that the opportunity in china is vast and the risks are manageable.

 

[elasalle]

Yes. it was an announcement about a future announcement.
Tesla says exploring China car plant with Shanghai government


"How can Tesla produce 500K cars in 2018 ?"
Sure it can. Define the plan on Dec 31st; produce 500k cars in China in 2018 beginning the next day.

ironic!!. I was talking about an aggregate sum of 500K cars(worldwide)

 

[FredTMC]

This?
Tesla says exploring China car plant with Shanghai government

Thx!

Sheesh. I'd love if some news org would publish the actual statement from Tesla rather than report snippets of the statement.

 

[Richgoogol]

Bought 200 shares @ 380.50. Such a no brainer

 

[NZ10K]

JV is more than just math; it's about getting the government's blessing to access a market that is 2-3x the size of US market.

Also, you may be making too many assumptions that are simply unknowable at this time.

Tesla already had access to the Chinese market. The only reason for a factory in China is to cut costs, and cut profit by half at the same time (due to JV). And lose all competitive edge quickly.

 

[Chop110]

Does this mean a confirmation announcement for the China factory is going to wait till the end of the year?

 

[racer26]

Tesla already had access to the Chinese market. The only reason for a factory in China is to cut costs, and cut profit by half at the same time (due to JV). And lose all competitive edge quickly.

Except it doesn't cut profit by half, because presumably the JV is covering 1/2 the COGS too.

Factory in china allows Tesla to cut the cost to the customer by eliminating the 25% tariff, thereby making the product more competitive against domestic Chinese offerings.

Why would you lose competitive edge?

 

[vgrinshpun]

You spoke too early, my friend.

I've been proven too conservative too many times to never say never when it comes to Elon & Team.

Remember this?

View attachment 232328

I laughed so hard when I saw this. I thought to myself, "what a jokester this Elon!"

Six months... it took six months for an impossible joke to become a reality.

Six months.

I said NO because it happened one day *earlier* than you predicted - today. So I did not speak too early...

You WERE conservative with the $380...

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Tesla already had access to the Chinese market. The only reason for a factory in China is to cut costs, and cut profit by half at the same time (due to JV). And lose all competitive edge quickly.

Not the type of access it needs. I don't think the Chinese government would allow a non-cooperating company to get much larger than Tesla's current market share. Why would they, when they can use it as a stick to get what they want?

This way, both sides will benefit. And that's how a deal gets done.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I said NO because it happened one day *earlier* than you predicted - today. So I did not speak too early...

You WERE conservative with the $380...

ANOTHER person that thinks I'm too conservative!!!

Y'all are starting to make me look as conservative a tea party presidential candidate.

 

[serverguy247]

Thx!

Sheesh. I'd love if some news org would publish the actual statement from Tesla rather than report snippets of the statement.

From Electrek :

“Tesla is working with the Shanghai Municipal Government to explore the possibility of establishing a manufacturing facility in the region to serve the Chinese market. As we have said before, we expect to more clearly define our plans for production in China by the end of the year. Tesla is deeply committed to the Chinese market, and we continue to evaluate potential manufacturing sites around the globe to serve the local markets. While we expect most of our production to remain in the US, we do need to establish local factories to ensure affordability for the markets they serve.”

 

[Lhan]

A Tesla spokesperson sent us the following statement:

“Tesla is working with the Shanghai Municipal Government to explore the possibility of establishing a manufacturing facility in the region to serve the Chinese market. As we have said before, we expect to more clearly define our plans for production in China by the end of the year. Tesla is deeply committed to the Chinese market, and we continue to evaluate potential manufacturing sites around the globe to serve the local markets. While we expect most of our production to remain in the US, we do need to establish local factories to ensure affordability for the markets they serve.”


Tesla confirms working with Shanghai Government to establish a manufacturing facility in the region

 

[geneclean55]

Here we go

 

[Starno]

Aïe ... very close

 

[Starno]

ATH Close is 380.66

 

[D-egg-O]

The Tesla shorts on Twitter have not yet combined the news about Tesla seeking production in Shanghai with the ease of JV-regulation for BEV makers. They will be in for a big surprise.

Bertel Schmitt on Twitter

B. S. blocked me on twitter.

 

[geneclean55]

NASDAQ COMP just broke above neckline. Could get interesting...

 

[Sanny]

Uh, er, I have no idea. Is there some useful way to say what my TSLA holdings might be? For example, I wrote a bunch of Jan '19 450 puts back in February, for which I got $201.55 per share ($20,155 per contract). The bid/ask midpoint is now $121.35, so I'm up $8,020 per contract. Perhaps what I'm up is irrelevant. How much do I have invested in TSLA by way of this position?

If the stock goes to zero I'm out $45,000 per contract, so that's nominally at risk, but my broker would close my position long before then due to my account going to zero. So really, is there a useful way to characterize the value of this position?

Me, I just look at the profit and think it's awesome.

How does that put options work for you? I'm curious about selling 300 Jan 18 puts but do not know what are the margin requirements and how much I need to keep in my account on my account in different scenarios. I'm on Interactive Brokers.
Sorry if wrong thread...

 

[D-egg-O]

I learned a lesson this week. Been selling covered calls for a few months now. I got caught out with some DITM covered calls when the stock ran up from 300 to 330. I had one option left at 310 strike price expiring tomorrow. If this happens to you, make sure these DITM options are 3-4 weeks out so they still have a time value premium. My covered call was executed early since it had no time value.