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Yeah. and the problem with technical trading is, once enough people know about a pattern, their behavior changes.
At that point, either the pattern stops working, or it gets *amplified* (depending on what sort of pattern it was). The rise of technical-driven momentum-strategy algobots has exaggerated all momentum strategies.
Of course, this creates new opportunities to find different patterns.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
My two cents: From a fundamental stand point, the two price actions relative to valuation were similar, but this was a more irrational dip than 1Q16 given the Model X issues then and Model 3 being ahead of schedule now among other reasons such as large and growing Model 3 reservations.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Funny. I do the exact same thing.
Then I get impatient.
My therapist is working on it.
Yepsaw lots of articles and videos about TSLA bouncing back/hitting the bottom. Self fulfilling prophecy indeed.
Back to the days of the porridge not too hot/cold? @Papafox TSLA one of the better performing stocks this a.m. lots of tech/auto in red.
It's all guesswork, nobody Knows where the SP is headed, TA seems to help define ranges, have seen accurate tops and bottoms called quite often. It appears you can do slightly better guesswork With TA so i'm inclined to pay attention.
Regarding the porridge not too hot or cold question, we are alluding to the macros not being too far up or too far down on a day, which in recent times was the preferred environment for TSLA running higher. The idea is that TSLA does not necessarily follow the macros to the same extent as other stocks, and so on a big up day for the NASDAQ, for example, traders often would move money into more reliable stocks for responding to the up macro environment. Add a mandatory morning dip at TSLA engineered by the shorts, and a "hot porridge" day can be very lackluster for TSLA.
At the moment, though, TSLA has just been involved in a ferocious battle around 310 to determine whether it continues to drop or it reverses and heads up to recover some lost territory. Looks like the longs won this battle, hurrah! In such an environment, I suspect TSLA would respond well to a big up day for the macros, but the only way to tell for sure would be to see such a day and see how TSLA reacts. When TSLA climbs higher and gets more stable in price, then I think the porridge not too hot and not too cold phenomenon will return as the preferred environment for TSLA rising, but I suspect for another day or two a big up day for the macros might be a nice up day for TSLA. Hoping we get to see such a situation and learn more (and perhaps profit from it).
TrendTrader007
Active Member
TA does not work and reading charts is a waste of time
The more this is the prevailing sentiment the greater the advantage for those of us who trade on basis of TA
A cliche is that reading chart is like reading tea leaves
Sure, to an uninformed eye an EKG and EEG are undecipherable
That does not mean that reading them is like reading tea leaves
A successful Trader does not care about others'opinions in fact some of the greatest traders in history bet against the crowd all the time and consistently win
As far as Tsla is concerned it is behaving like a classic high beta momentum growth stock and those betting against it will be severely and irrevocably damaging their own accounts in the process
Short sellers beware
The more this is the prevailing sentiment the greater the advantage for those of us who trade on basis of TA
A cliche is that reading chart is like reading tea leaves
Sure, to an uninformed eye an EKG and EEG are undecipherable
That does not mean that reading them is like reading tea leaves
A successful Trader does not care about others'opinions in fact some of the greatest traders in history bet against the crowd all the time and consistently win
As far as Tsla is concerned it is behaving like a classic high beta momentum growth stock and those betting against it will be severely and irrevocably damaging their own accounts in the process
Short sellers beware
MartinAustin
Active Member
Waiting4M3
Active Member
Yup... everyone that shorted since Thursday, if they didn't take profits, is now underwater. Tomorrow morning is likely a pop, but who knows after that. But this is going to be an interesting rest of the week.
Should have bought more yesterday.
In other news, my J19 330 call option is growing faster than my 200% all in margin account. I'm a bit surprised.
In other news, my J19 330 call option is growing faster than my 200% all in margin account. I'm a bit surprised.
Krugerrand
Meow
There may be a circus around me, but I assure you not one of the monkeys belongs to me. Just putting that out there.
mejojo
Active Member
bdy0627
Active Member
Yes! We needed this. Could TA gurus please confirm current resistance levels? 327 is the bottom of the next red candle to cover on the way up. 339 is the 50 MA. If we move through 327 then it's 339?
To continue your analogy: There can be multiple reasons for the loss of a P wave on an EKG. So, an EKG (like TA) is one tool for a cardiologist to use when assessing the cause of an arrhythmia or other medical issue. Just like TA is one tool in one's tool box for trying to discern the direction of the TSLA SP.
I like the postings about TA from people, like yourself, that understand it as I admit to not knowing all the nuances of TA. But, macros and news, positive and negative about Tesla need to be integrated when choosing how to invest.
PS: I admit to knowing FAR less about EKG. changes than a cardiologist. So, if you continue discussing EKGs you will quickly exceed my knowledge. Just continuing on with your analogy to make a point that TA without using other information available is much less effective
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Yup, the gap between $318 to $327 is now filled. Next gap to be filled is between $340 to $352, from last Tuesday's half-day close.
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