2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[D-egg-O]

Um, No. Chevy Bolt beat out Model 3 by a year. I delivered 576 cars in first month of Dec 2016 to REAL end customers, not just to CEO and top execs and employees. For Model 3, until they deliver to end customers, it is hard to distinguish between production and engineering validation cars.
Now the Bolt is priming for nationwide launch after winning ~40 awards.


"massive battery production": I've been asking for a while. Please quote me the GF output in quantitatibe terms. I'm not impressed by mere superlatives like "faster than machine gun", "massive", "blah b;ah", etc.

"Tesla moves faster": Yes, when Tesla releases products before it's finished testing and validation, it has got no choice. This is also a cause of heartburn, with massive confusion among customers and Tesla's own delivery and service staff. I think, parts management also becomes a lot harder with these myriad unnecessary changes that could be avoided with proper testing & validation that other car makers do before they release their cars to customers. This forum is full of complaints from people driving with old parts/seats , only to be replaced by the stuff they ordered after many months. When selling or buying an used Tesla, it is hard to figure out what one is getting because of the myriad little changes and options. This constant change of parts and pricing/options has its fair amount of downsides.
GM just posted $2.4B in profits in a shrinking US auto market. When Tesla's approach produces a fraction of that profit, I guess we could find some legitimacy in Tesla's method.

But I guess I am getting in your way of spinning this into a big positive

 

[DurandalAI]

Oh man, this is OT, but I love me some Danger 5!

 

[Skryll]

Um, No. Chevy Bolt beat out Model 3 by a year. I delivered 576 cars in first month of Dec 2016 to REAL end customers, not just to CEO and top execs and employees. For Model 3, until they deliver to end customers, it is hard to distinguish between production and engineering validation cars.
Now the Bolt is priming for nationwide launch after winning ~40 awards.

'With nearly 40 independent awards and after millions of miles driven, it's clear that people are loving the groundbreaking Bolt EV. Owner Maria Mraz of San Francisco says, "Everyone who rides in it just loves it. It's very modern feeling and so easy to drive." The all-electric Bolt EV is arriving at certified dealerships nationwide.'

Welcome to the experience of electric driving. I felt the same way about my VW eGolf when I replaced my VW Jetta with it in January 2015. It has a meagre 85 mile range but still accelerates nicer than a BMW 3-series off the line. Handles great, especially after replacing the tires with the Potenza Pole Position after I wore out the first set of tires after just 20k miles. Lots of fun.

Honestly when test driving the Bolt January 2017 I was thinking it is a decent hatchback, lust like the eGolf but with more range and at least on paper better acceleration. But obviously the owner experience is not going to be the same as a Tesla, i.e. no over the air update improvements, no supercharger, no autopilot, no high end feeling. We have a Model X that we had since May 2016, so I know what the difference is. I drive the eGolf daily and my wife drives the Model X daily and I get to drive the X on weekends or road trips. Massive difference. Both massively better than the legacy gas cars obviousy, so the reaction of the new born Bolt owners is no surprise to me.

Model 3 owners will be even more excited, especially since they get 310 miles for $44k before incentives, the price the dealership quoted me for the 238 mile premium Bolt was close to that, maybe $2k less.

I am certain that the Model 3 will outrun the Bolt as soon as they ramped up, and at a much better profit margin, too.

 

[esk8mw]

Exactly!

Those who talk about completion also like to bring risks that Tesla is taking. Well, sure like hell they do, because they are purpose driven company and fully accept elevated risk to advance the purpose. But if some OEM would attempt to close this 5-10 year gap, they will have to accept even higher risk in order to catch up.

However, note that absolutely all OEMs are approaching this by forming partnerships and alliances left and right. I hope nobody reading this needs a lecture on how these partnerships and alliances work - shared costs and responsibilities means that nobody **owns** the common business, nobody is really in charge. How in the world they suppose to catch up with a company where the visionary is unequivocally in charge?

These alliances also mean that there is no true engineering oprimization, just assembly of black boxes. Well if battery technology just approaching the level at which EV and ICE parity is possible, optimization is everything: one needs every possible bit of it. This absolutely is not possible to achieve just aggregating black boxes. Once again Tesla is simply untouchable in this regard.

I once had a colleague who was fond of saying "have you ever read my treatise on joint ventures? It's pretty short."

"Don't."

 

[erthquake]

When I was about 20 I started to trt to figure out what I wanted to achieve in my life (over a couple of years):
1. I considered getting married, having kids, a job, a house and a couple of cars, a few weeks of vacation each year and I thought no, there has to be more than that!
2. I decided that everyone wants to be happy, even someone like mother Teresa who gets happiness from helping others. I decided that I wanted to be happy too.

3. I was fortunate that when I fell in love I'd feel intoxicated in that love. I decided that feeling came from inside of me and that it was possible to feel that all the time for everyone. I made that my life's goal. It's embarrassing how little progress I've made, but I feel extremely fortunate that I had that understanding, and that I have tried to do that. Even trying to accomplish that has been a huge blessing in my life because I've definitely made more progress than I would have if I hadn't tried.

So my opinion is that it doesn't make sense to our own hearts with ugly feelings because someone else " deserves it ".

I believe that most of us can do better than having bad feelings for shorts, if we understand the benefits of doing that. Just because someone else is foolish enough to pollute their hearts with ugly feelings doesn't mean that we have to fall into the trap of making the same mistake in response.

Well said. I think this goes along with the idea that forgiveness isn't about giving permission for or condoning certain actions. It's letting go of your negative feelings toward those actions and choosing to move on.

 

[erthquake]

Um, No. Chevy Bolt beat out Model 3 by a year. Chevy delivered 576 cars in first month of Dec 2016 to REAL end customers, not just to CEO and top execs and employees. That was already AFTER having won the COY and few other awards. For Model 3, until Tesla delivers to independent end customers, it is hard to distinguish between production and engineering validation cars.
Now the Bolt is priming for nationwide launch after winning ~40 awards.


"massive battery production": I've been asking for a while. Please quote me the GF output in quantitative terms. I'm not impressed by mere superlatives like "faster than machine gun", "massive", "blah blah", etc.

"Tesla moves faster": Yes, when Tesla releases products before it's finished testing and validation, it has got no choice. This is also a cause of heartburn, with massive confusion among customers and Tesla's own delivery and service staff. I think, parts management also becomes a lot harder with these myriad unnecessary changes that could be avoided with proper testing & validation that other car makers do before they release their cars to customers. This forum is full of complaints from people driving with old parts/seats , only to be replaced by the stuff they ordered after many months. When selling or buying an used Tesla, it is hard to figure out what one is getting because of the myriad little changes and options. This constant change of parts and pricing/options has its fair amount of downsides.
GM just posted $2.4B in profits in a shrinking US auto market. When Tesla's approach produces a fraction of that profit, I guess we could find some legitimacy in Tesla's method.

But I guess I am getting in your way of spinning this into a big positive

You're cute.

 

[MXWing]

Um, No. Chevy Bolt beat out Model 3 by a year. Chevy delivered 576 cars in first month of Dec 2016 to REAL end customers, not just to CEO and top execs and employees. That was already AFTER having won the COY and few other awards. For Model 3, until Tesla delivers to independent end customers, it is hard to distinguish between production and engineering validation cars.
Now the Bolt is priming for nationwide launch after winning ~40 awards.


"massive battery production": I've been asking for a while. Please quote me the GF output in quantitative terms. I'm not impressed by mere superlatives like "faster than machine gun", "massive", "blah blah", etc.

"Tesla moves faster": Yes, when Tesla releases products before it's finished testing and validation, it has got no choice. This is also a cause of heartburn, with massive confusion among customers and Tesla's own delivery and service staff. I think, parts management also becomes a lot harder with these myriad unnecessary changes that could be avoided with proper testing & validation that other car makers do before they release their cars to customers. This forum is full of complaints from people driving with old parts/seats , only to be replaced by the stuff they ordered after many months. When selling or buying an used Tesla, it is hard to figure out what one is getting because of the myriad little changes and options. This constant change of parts and pricing/options has its fair amount of downsides.
GM just posted $2.4B in profits in a shrinking US auto market. When Tesla's approach produces a fraction of that profit, I guess we could find some legitimacy in Tesla's method.

But I guess I am getting in your way of spinning this into a big positive

How do you explain Chevy giving Bolts away if they are so good? 9.5k off MSRP and I'll pass.

Model 3 goes up 15k from 35k and I would rather have that?

GMs past performance (add a bankruptcy * as well ) does not indicate future performance.

When the ICE age is over, see if the revenue holds up.

Blackberrys outsold iPhones for a few years.

Some people getting their first cell phones today have no idea what a blackberry is.

 

[The Blue Owl]

GMs past performance (add a bankruptcy * as well ) does not indicate future performance.

Well...

 

[Waiting4M3]

Also, in the USA at least, the conventional way to sell cars is through 3rd-party companies that make fat profits on maintenance work. (dealerships) When these dealerships see how little servicing work is involved on BEVs (brakes, motor and battery need next to nothing compared to ICE brakes, engine, transmission & exhaust), they will not know what to do to survive. And during the transition period, they will have millions of used ICE cars on their lots. Dealerships are currently doing NOTHING to accelerate the transition to sustainable transport, because sustainable transport is not what they want to be involved in, by its very nature. They prefer fossil-fuel-powered transport that wears out, so they can maintain it.

You might want to strike brakes from your EV maintenance list, my 2004 prius at 160K miles is still on the original set of brake pads because of regen braking

 

[Lessmog]

You might want to strike brakes from your EV maintenance list, my 2004 prius at 160K miles is still on the original set of brake pads because of regen braking

But you still want to renew the brake fluid every other year or more often, since it is hydrophilic and also corrosive. Change the coolant at the same time. Maybe check AC? Still, low maintenance.

 

[MXWing]

Well...

Sorry.

I meant past profitability does not indicate future profitability.

Bankruptcy however is always on the table for legacy auto.

 

[gaswalla]

The Bolt is made by LG- look it up

 

[TradingInvest]

When I was about 20 I started to trt to figure out what I wanted to achieve in my life (over a couple of years):
1. I considered getting married, having kids, a job, a house and a couple of cars, a few weeks of vacation each year and I thought no, there has to be more than that!
2. I decided that everyone wants to be happy, even someone like mother Teresa who gets happiness from helping others. I decided that I wanted to be happy too.

3. I was fortunate that when I fell in love I'd feel intoxicated in that love. I decided that feeling came from inside of me and that it was possible to feel that all the time for everyone. I made that my life's goal. It's embarrassing how little progress I've made, but I feel extremely fortunate that I had that understanding, and that I have tried to do that. Even trying to accomplish that has been a huge blessing in my life because I've definitely made more progress than I would have if I hadn't tried.

So my opinion is that it doesn't make sense to our own hearts with ugly feelings because someone else " deserves it ".

I believe that most of us can do better than having bad feelings for shorts, if we understand the benefits of doing that. Just because someone else is foolish enough to pollute their hearts with ugly feelings doesn't mean that we have to fall into the trap of making the same mistake in response.

I admire your attitude. That's also how I try to think about life.

However, I don't have sympathy for shorts. Elon and the team have been working so hard to do good things for the world. Most shorts know it. They know what Tesla is trying to achieve is difficult. Considering this, they decided to profit from it. They short the stock then actively try all sorts of tactics to destroy Tesla. I will not list all the details. Long term investors should be very familiar with those tactics. I have never seen a public company being attacked in this scale for so long. I have met many people who dislike Tesla and Tesla's cars just because they read so much bashing on the internet. When lies are repeated a few hundred times, many people start to believe them. Each time I have had to spend hours to explain to them why those things they read on the internet are not true.

I decided to trade against shorts so them can't easily make money when they manipulate the stock. Then I add the trading profit into more long term holding. This is my way to support Tesla. I want shorts to feel the pain. If all of us do this, those guys would have a harder time manipulating TSLA, and they probably would have quit long time ago. Then they would not have the interest to spread so much FUD.

 

[RyanT]

Welcome to the experience of electric driving...

Honestly when test driving the Bolt January 2017 I was thinking it is a decent hatchback, lust like the eGolf but with more range and at least on paper better acceleration. But obviously the owner experience is not going to be the same as a Tesla, i.e. no over the air update improvements, no supercharger, no autopilot, no high end feeling. We have a Model X that we had since May 2016, so I know what the difference is. I drive the eGolf daily and my wife drives the Model X daily and I get to drive the X on weekends or road trips. Massive difference. Both massively better than the legacy gas cars obviousy, so the reaction of the new born Bolt owners is no surprise to me.

Model 3 owners will be even more excited, especially since they get 310 miles for $44k before incentives, the price the dealership quoted me for the 238 mile premium Bolt was close to that, maybe $2k less.

I am certain that the Model 3 will outrun the Bolt as soon as they ramped up, and at a much better profit margin, too.

Same here. I used to have a Volt so I know what you're talking about. Owning a Bolt vs Model 3 isn't even a comparison. The model 3 is so much more innovative. Huge touch screen, looks, supercharging, auto pilot, OTA software upgrades, and not having that scummy feeling of going to the dealership. I still have those memories of them trying to sell me paint protection etc. Tesla has been a better experience by miles.

 

[DragonWatch]

Good read: Tesla’s stock (TSLA) rises as analysts see Model 3 deliveries and shorts start running

Shorts, bears, and deniers ~ I look at this mile stone, turning the corner, new heights or what have you as a minor relief almost a vindication of sorts. Some of the "downer gang" were paid to deliberately write or post extremely ugly words and images like a dead animal with a lot of bloody hands grabbing at the organs.

Time is too short to wish vengeance on them (still a struggle); I have managed to ride through each high and pick myself up after each low of this stock. There is still more ahead to endure and I refuse to waste my energy on deniers; my goal is to survive and leave this place in a better state than when I found it.

My wife this morning on our way home from the lake said, "I drive like speed limits were published for me as merely a suggestion." I just cannot enjoy enough driving my; okay ruin the story, her MX

 

[kenliles]

My wife this morning on our way home from the lake said I drive like speed limits were published for me as merely a suggestion. I just cannot enjoy enough driving my; okay ruin the story, her MX

Ha!
She's right.
They're just suggestions if YOU are driving HER MX.

 

[supratachophobia]

Now the Bolt is priming for nationwide launch after winning ~40 awards.

Like awards in initial quality? "Does that mean it's a piece of crap after 90 days?"

 

[everman]

Um, No. Chevy Bolt beat out Model 3 by a year. Chevy delivered 576 cars in first month of Dec 2016 to REAL end customers, not just to CEO and top execs and employees. That was already AFTER having won the COY and few other awards. For Model 3, until Tesla delivers to independent end customers, it is hard to distinguish between production and engineering validation cars.
Now the Bolt is priming for nationwide launch after winning ~40 awards.


"massive battery production": I've been asking for a while. Please quote me the GF output in quantitative terms. I'm not impressed by mere superlatives like "faster than machine gun", "massive", "blah blah", etc.

"Tesla moves faster": Yes, when Tesla releases products before it's finished testing and validation, it has got no choice. This is also a cause of heartburn, with massive confusion among customers and Tesla's own delivery and service staff. I think, parts management also becomes a lot harder with these myriad unnecessary changes that could be avoided with proper testing & validation that other car makers do before they release their cars to customers. This forum is full of complaints from people driving with old parts/seats , only to be replaced by the stuff they ordered after many months. When selling or buying an used Tesla, it is hard to figure out what one is getting because of the myriad little changes and options. This constant change of parts and pricing/options has its fair amount of downsides.
GM just posted $2.4B in profits in a shrinking US auto market. When Tesla's approach produces a fraction of that profit, I guess we could find some legitimacy in Tesla's method.

But I guess I am getting in your way of spinning this into a big positive

I’d like your prediction for total (2016 and 2017) deliveries by year end 2017:
Bolt:
Model 3:

One shipping to customers for > 1 yr, one shipping to customers ... well, whenever you want to start that clock.

 

[Ugliest1]

My wife this morning on our way home from the lake said, "I drive like speed limits were published for me as merely a suggestion." I just cannot enjoy enough driving my; okay ruin the story, her MX

The numbers on the yellow signs ARE just suggestions... so... I'm slightly white/yellow colour challenged... yeah, that's it.

 

[Krugerrand]

I'm not saying this is a definite, but a short squeeze may happen.

If only we could put that notion to bed once and for all. I mean geez Louise already.