2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[TrendTrader007]

Are people still doubting my short squeeze call?

short squeeze is happening and about to get a whole lot worse
I agree with you

 

[luvb2b]

thought i would share what i am seeing technically today. the attached chart has volume by price on the left.

over the recent selloff most of the price drop happened on no volume. on the chart, it's the purple box labeled "volume void".

the bulk of the selling came under $348.50, in the gold box labeled "high volume zone". longs sold thinking they would buy back, shorts sold thinking it was going lower, some took profits, etc. it's the first 2 categories of trader that are the most interesting. the last 7 sessions, the bulk of the volume has traded under 348.50.

as we get closer to 348 and sit over 348, these traders start to get nervous. the longs who wanted to buy back, but didn't... they are thinking they better get in. the shorts who sold and are sitting on losers, they are thinking "cover". this forms a natural base of support under the stock in the near term. it also is a pool of people who might chase back up into the volume void if they are sufficiently nervous of prices not coming back.

that was the view over the last 10 days or so, now for today you see the high volume bar in the morning? in the general thread i had posted the overly negative nature of virtually every headline last night. these are the people who emotionally sold due to the negative reaction. intraday the high volume of the morning did not persist throughout the day. so there are likely some traders who shorted in the morning who are looking at prices much higher. many are so short term oriented they won't think to hold a 12 point loser overnight.

volume right now is light. if we dip down 343-345 and trade good volume, the morning mistake-makers can get out with only a little pain.

but!!! if we can just hang out here 347-348ish, i think there is a chance that these guys chase late in the day. and between these 3 groups (morning shorts, sellers who sold to buy back, and shorts who shorted the decline) there might be enough buying power to create a brisk move into the close.

 

[Causalien]

Had to give put option buyers a $3 dollar discount to theoretical price for them to buy at market open. That's when I know that the knowledgeable ones are expecting the sp to move up.

 

[Turing]

I think that almost everybody is underestimating the difficulty of the situation that Tesla's competitors are in. Even if they were able to kick R&D into overdrive, and design car that was unquestionably better than Tesla, for a better price, it would put huge strain on their existing business. Who is going to buy a 3 series BMW if BMW has a new electric model 3 killer that is vastly superior to both cars? There is no way that they could hit the ground running with manufacturing capacity to match their current ICE capacity, and if they release supper compelling electric cars at low availability, it will kill their existing bread and butter lines of business. If they were to invest hugely in electric vehicle manufacturing prior to releasing the first model, then it were to flop, that would be a huge financial blow too, and would be too risky.

I think they will continue to stumble along with lots of press releases, and half hearted efforts, with their biggest hope being that Tesla will die suddenly from a self inflicted wound (Unfortunately a possibility). They will be more aggressive in markets where they currently do not do a lot of profitable business. For instance, Chevy will try to go after ride sharing with the Bolt, but I would be very surprised if they came out will a super compelling 3/4 ton pickup truck that Osborned the Silverado.

Also, I think Tesla has real lasting advantages in the software side of things, in comparison to every other car company, and I think that lead is more likely to grow over time, than shrink. From a recruiting standpoint, Tesla seems SO much sexier for a young software genius than going to work for Ford. The real deal, saving the planet company mission, allows them to get away with working those geniuses much harder too.

Exactly. When have old successful businesses ever been in a hurry to spend a ton of money and take on a bunch of risk only to cannibalize their existing products and market share? The public market incentive structure given to upper management and the board also incentivizes against these kind of moves, worth giving up those short term focused annual bonuses anyone? Big auto wants a slow orderly drawn out compliance car transition to EVs, Tesla and now China are both screwing this up.

 

[Bet TSLA]

as far as margin is concerned
I totally love it
I make or lose more in a day than average non margined conservative investors do in 10 years
all due to being extremely leveraged
i'm a huge fan of margin

Since you said you were leveraged to the hilt at $380+ you must have had some epic margin calls over the past couple of weeks. How's that working out? I've been avoiding margin so my daily swings stay under $1M.

 

[Intl Professor]

I always tend to be extremely optimistic/ delusional wishful thinking on these things, but here is my 2 cents on the production delays.
My guess is that they are 4-6 weeks behind where they hoped to be at this point in terms of daily production rate. The good news is that the S curve is not some fixed path that has to be followed. It is just a way to visualize the process of working through a bunch of rate limiting steps that keep cropping up as you accelerate the speed of production. My hope is that they have one or two big problems that are killing them at the moment. Such as, a set of robots aren't working out and they had to design new ones and have them made (Hypothetical). Obviously this would take engineering time, production, shipping, installation, programing time, and could only be done so fast. Hopefully, while this is going on they are able to run all the rest of the line at high speed, even if it is only a couple cars a day, and identify and fix the myriad other problems that would be keeping them from moving from 300 cars a week to 500 cars a week, even if they were totally on schedule. In this wishful scenario, they are currently 4-6 weeks behind schedule, but once they get the big issues fixed, there might be a nice vertical gap up in the S curve that gets them largely back on schedule.

I have no evidence for the following, so wag. I hope your hypothetical is not the case as that sounds major squared. However, taking all the steps of production into consideration there is bound to be fine tuning which can be of major proportion. I don't think they'd lie about knowing what the problems are. That reduces a big problem into one that can be seen, now, as solvable.

They'll get there.

 

[geneclean55]

Coiling?

 

[Intl Professor]

I think that almost everybody is underestimating the difficulty of the situation that Tesla's competitors are in. Even if they were able to kick R&D into overdrive, and design car that was unquestionably better than Tesla, for a better price, it would put huge strain on their existing business. Who is going to buy a 3 series BMW if BMW has a new electric model 3 killer that is vastly superior to both cars? There is no way that they could hit the ground running with manufacturing capacity to match their current ICE capacity, and if they release supper compelling electric cars at low availability, it will kill their existing bread and butter lines of business. If they were to invest hugely in electric vehicle manufacturing prior to releasing the first model, then it were to flop, that would be a huge financial blow too, and would be too risky.

I think they will continue to stumble along with lots of press releases, and half hearted efforts, with their biggest hope being that Tesla will die suddenly from a self inflicted wound (Unfortunately a possibility). They will be more aggressive in markets where they currently do not do a lot of profitable business. For instance, Chevy will try to go after ride sharing with the Bolt, but I would be very surprised if they came out will a super compelling 3/4 ton pickup truck that Osborned the Silverado.

Also, I think Tesla has real lasting advantages in the software side of things, in comparison to every other car company, and I think that lead is more likely to grow over time, than shrink. From a recruiting standpoint, Tesla seems SO much sexier for a young software genius than going to work for Ford. The real deal, saving the planet company mission, allows them to get away with working those geniuses much harder too.

I was an ME grad at MIT in 1958. The automobile field was not at all sexy then. The really exciting and challenging courses were electrical engineering and space, mostly because of advancements in guidance control for missiles. Nuclear engineering was hot. One of the professors I knew was involved in nuclear sub design. I had a minor emphasis in nuclear power plant design but was no good at it and after a years later stint at the old Atomic Energy Commission with a one-year fellowship, view that industry as a disaster. In its annual reports the AEC then bragged about using ten percent of U.S. electrical output, but then I digress again.

 

[Tslynk67]

Got to agree with Trippin' Trip this time! Chowdhry: Any Weakness In Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) Is A Buying Opportunity

“[The] TSLA delivery number means nothing,” Chowdhry wrote. “TSLA is creating an industry. Any weakness is a buying opportunity."

 

[vgrinshpun]

So far it looks like a nice bounce off the triangle support line. The thing is that I believe that TSLA is at or very close to the resolution point. Ii either breaks down or breaks out of the triangle, which is essentially a manifestation of polarized opinions on TSLA. If TSL:A can break through ~$346, the break out take #2 will be in the cards.

EDIT: Yielding to the few unforgiving members here (you know who you are!) fixed my 2s into 3s.

View attachment 251482

Sooo, TSLA is sitting nice and tight between the support and resistance lines of the triangle. I think that we will get resolution ether today into the close or tomorrow. I see two scenarios for break out. First - orderly picking out the old blue channel. Second - all out breakout similar to take#1 into the ATH. Get your pop corn and beverage of choice ready...

 

[myusername]

So,. Now that your pin number isn't anywhere near the price, any thoughts on why your semi random number didn't matter except for a short snapshot in time?

$346... $346... $**6... it went from $336 to $346... that is exactly what I've been saying.

 

[Mike Smith]

Looks like a nice bull flag for a strong close.

 

[elasalle]

$346... $346... $**6... it went from $336 to $346... that is exactly what I've been saying.

Given that digits are from 0-9, chances of hitting 6 is 10%
I am all ears for $666

 

[jelloslug]

Given that digits are from 0-9, chances of hitting 6 is 10%
I am all ears for $666

That's fitting for production hell....

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I think that almost everybody is underestimating the difficulty of the situation that Tesla's competitors are in. Even if they were able to kick R&D into overdrive, and design car that was unquestionably better than Tesla, for a better price, it would put huge strain on their existing business. Who is going to buy a 3 series BMW if BMW has a new electric model 3 killer that is vastly superior to both cars? There is no way that they could hit the ground running with manufacturing capacity to match their current ICE capacity, and if they release supper compelling electric cars at low availability, it will kill their existing bread and butter lines of business. If they were to invest hugely in electric vehicle manufacturing prior to releasing the first model, then it were to flop, that would be a huge financial blow too, and would be too risky.

I think they will continue to stumble along with lots of press releases, and half hearted efforts, with their biggest hope being that Tesla will die suddenly from a self inflicted wound (Unfortunately a possibility). They will be more aggressive in markets where they currently do not do a lot of profitable business. For instance, Chevy will try to go after ride sharing with the Bolt, but I would be very surprised if they came out will a super compelling 3/4 ton pickup truck that Osborned the Silverado.

Also, I think Tesla has real lasting advantages in the software side of things, in comparison to every other car company, and I think that lead is more likely to grow over time, than shrink. From a recruiting standpoint, Tesla seems SO much sexier for a young software genius than going to work for Ford. The real deal, saving the planet company mission, allows them to get away with working those geniuses much harder too.

Exactly. The only fighting chance they have is if Tesla drags its feet with the subsequent Gigafactories.

And we all know how likely that is...

 

[TrendTrader007]

Since you said you were leveraged to the hilt at $380+ you must have had some epic margin calls over the past couple of weeks. How's that working out? I've been avoiding margin so my daily swings stay under $1M.

zero margin calls despite my being on margin close to $7
my margin equity did fall to 44% but no worries
how much stock are you holding?
don't have to state if you don't want to
it's all good
I am tempted to buy even more but too scared to do so

 

[D-egg-O]

zero margin calls despite my being on margin close to $7
my margin equity did fall to 44% but no worries
how much stock are you holding?
don't have to state if you don't want to
it's all good
I am tempted to buy even more but too scared to do so

You have some major cojones my friend. Mad respect. I had one... I repeat... ONE weekly 350C for this Friday. I was scared into selling it at a loss this morning.

BUT... the silver lining is I don't mess with my DITM and DOTM LEAPs, and I don't mess with my core shares. And I don't use margin (famous last words). Obsessively tracking short term option chains keeps me from doing something majorly dumb. At least that's what I tell myself.

 

[Jayjs20]

I bought some Jan19 400 calls a few days ago and got hit with a regulation t call, and my broker liquidating some of my shares. Overall, I lost 210 of my shares in exchange for 10 call options.

I'm actually using less margin now and I'm more exposed to TSLA. Previously, I only held stock. Once it returns to ATH, assuming the price of the option will also return to a similar point as before, I'll be up 10% higher than last time it hit the ATH thanks to those options. It's an interesting, and rather beneficial trade, but I can't help but be a little annoyed that I'm only ~150% into TSLA now.

I can't think of a reason why I shouldn't convert all of my shares into call options, does anyone have a reason why I shouldn't?

 

[EnzoXYZ]

SP hit close to my buying target of 330s.

Bought 20 shares @ $350s and 30 shares @ $330s. Next target is 50 shares $310s

These are my trading shares as I sold off at 20 shares @ $360 and 30 shares $380 in the recent past. Had it gone to $400 I would have sold 50 shares. I keep 100 shares for trading purposes. This strategy been ok so may increase it up by ~50 shares.

Increased core holding in other Roth/IRA/another trading accont all by 20 shares (60 total). Bought 90 altogether today.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Bears got punished today.

Those "bulls" who were secretly hoping for lower prices also got punished.

Elon & Team are vicious to whoever doubts them.