2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[TrendTrader007]

Bullish engulfing candle on high volume overwhelms last 4 days of bear attack
Shorts really dropped the ball today
I saw it coming yesterday
However I'm on so much freaking margin already that even though I see the writing on the wall
I just can't seem to get the courage to pull the trigger
I mean seriously at this stage of the game numbers mean nothing
This is where real money is made
Going for the jugular
Rest is conversation

 

[vgrinshpun]

Nomura/Instinet Starts Tesla Motors (TSLA) at Buy, Street High

BTW, Nomura's report was authored by Romit Shah, ranked #196 out of 4,686 Analysts on TipRanks:

 

[TrendTrader007]

Hourly chart shows a hollow red hammer
Similar to August t 29th it heralds the end of downtrend
And beginning of yet another uptrend
Shorts can't read charts
Too elite for that
Not this hobo
I'll drink the koolaid
Every single day

 

[D-egg-O]

Thanks bud! And I want an invite to the TT007 and AB party as well please!

Is is too late to board this train? Asking for a friend.

 

[TrendTrader007]

This is how enduring bottoms are made
If you can't see the sheer beauty of this chart
I dunno what to say
After hours climbing right over 200 hour EMA
That's what I'm talking about

 

[TrendTrader007]

Is is too late to board this train? Asking for a friend.

I already signed you up my man!

 

[TrendTrader007]

I swear this weekly chart looks so similar to early 2013 except a whole lot stronger
Could we go up at least 5 to 7 X from here over next 18 months to 5 years
Like $1750 to $2450
Not if you listen to so called conservative longs
Absolutely! Said I

 

[TrendTrader007]

This monthly chart ought to strike fear in the heart of every self respecting bear

 

[TrendTrader007]

This is where the rubber meets the road
Imminent Bollinger breakout on quarterly means game over for bears
We will have the mother of all rallies lasting several quarters
Devil takes the hindmost
Short

 

[TrendTrader007]

Last chart of the evening before I'm kicked out of TMC
You wanna short this big bad MF
This freakin BFR
Go for it

 

[tinm]

The lesson here is to NOT proclaim certainty in an endeavor where uncertainty is the rule.

TSLA is a gamble, and always has been.

And gets to be more and more of a gamble given macro uncertainty. I doubt it's going to be Tesla that causes a major drop in TSLA but something that impacts the whole market.

 

[D-egg-O]

View attachment 251630 This is how enduring bottoms are made
If you can't see the sheer beauty of this chart
I dunno what to say
After hours climbing right over 200 hour EMA
That's what I'm talking about

330 sure looks like a solid floor now.

 

[Waiting4M3]

And gets to be more and more of a gamble given macro uncertainty. I doubt it's going to be Tesla that causes a major drop in TSLA but something that impacts the whole market.

One of the potential outcome of macro is nothing actually happens. Analysts/media tend to have a bias towards calling something imminent and cataclysmic. Nobody makes any money reporting "nothing scary/exciting happening in the next 18 months"

 

[larmor]

And gets to be more and more of a gamble given macro uncertainty. I doubt it's going to be Tesla that causes a major drop in TSLA but something that impacts the whole market.

Market disruptive industries are risky, eg netflix went down by 50% when they announced two separate subscriptions one for DVD and one for streaming. Not much risk now...

Tesla story is about energy and the market is warming up to this (pun not intended but can work), we are still at the netflix moment were people just did not understand streaming and clung to DVDs.

 

[Papafox]

How do you interpret this observation? It seems to me that over the last year short volume comprised about half every day? Or am I misreading it?

Looking at this chart a bit more carefully, short percentage of trading looked closer to 60% today, which is the high end of the typical 35-60% involvement of shorts in tsla transactions. When you combine the day's high volume with high percentage of shorts involvements in transactions, it's a particularly high activity level.


One assumption can be that shorts were doing a fair amount of buying (to cover) today.

 

[larmor]

Market disruptive industries are risky, eg netflix went down by 50% when they announced two separate subscriptions one for DVD and one for streaming. Not much risk now...

Tesla story is about energy and the market is warming up to this (pun not intended but can work), we are still at the netflix moment were people just did not understand streaming and clung to DVDs.

(mods: move this to the general investor thread)

I will extend this analogy, the population still lives on a fossil fuel based energy economy, and does not see the advantages of clean energy-solar, wind, and hence EVs, just like the vast majority of the population could not understand watching a movie without a DVD. Just like the inherent difficulties of streaming a movie a decade or more ago without reliable broadband or built in TV streaming services, similarly clean energy faces early adoption hurdles which will only become cheaper in the upcoming years.

For market purposes, now is the time to act. When tesla shows the automated line spooling, it will be too late. When they start shipping roof tiles to KB/lennar/Toll brothers, it will be too late. If the efficiency of a solar panel or a wind turbine improves, battery storage makes these technologies a viable alternative to fossil fuel based energy sources....

 

[Bet TSLA]

Okay this is what INTC did in 1990s
My guess is TSLA is where INTC was end of 1994/beginning of 1995
So conservative estimate of at least 10X ROI in terms of SP appreciation from now over next 5 years

You know Elon says that reasoning by analogy is not a winning strategy.

 

[everman]

View attachment 251643 Last chart of the evening before I'm kicked out of TMC
You wanna short this big bad MF
This freakin BFR
Go for it

Update your iPad to iOS 11! You’ll love it!

 

[ValueAnalyst]

TSLA up $4 pre-market. I expect a continuation of yesterday's move.

 

[Navin]

Special shout out to the photo editor CNBC uses for their online article who also thinks Goldman analyst is a dumbass. Check out the pic he/she used for this article